Greece’s Old Firm facing a genuine challenge
The Greek general election on Sunday week could be a turning point for the country, with implications for the rest of the EU as well. Alongside the big issues — austerity, unemployment, debt, social welfare — football and football loyalties may also have a significant impact.
In football, as in politics, the old certainties are no longer there. True, Olympiakos are top of the league as ever, but only just. The upstart competition comes from PAOK, who previously won the league 30 years ago. It is 20 years since the stranglehold of Olympiakos and Panathinaikos was last broken.
The parallels with the two main governing parties are obvious, at least if you are a PAOK fan.
New Democracy (conservative) and PASOK (social democrat) have not been effectively challenged since 1975. But now Syriza, the radical left coalition, is ahead in the polls.
Behind the symbolic stuff, however, a real change of alignment has taken place.
Olympiakos, a bit like Barcelona, is more than just a club. They dominate Piraeus and the surrounding region, just outside Athens, and the club has a major economic and political influence, above all through its owner, the shipping tycoon Evangelos Marinakis.
Marinakis personally, along with the club, has funded local welfare programmes but, like most Greek businessmen, has stayed away from direct political involvement, preferring to exert influence behind the scenes.
Ship owners, in particular, have kept their heads down, as they enjoy preferential tax rates. That helped to create and then preserve thousands of jobs in and around Piraeus, but has naturally made them a target as the financial crisis has deepened.
Suddenly, last April, Marinakis broke with this traditional low profile. Within the space of a month a new political party named “Piraeus, Winner” was formed and swept the local New Democracy mayor from office. Backed by the votes of thousands of port and shipping industry employees and their families, the new mayor was Olympiakos vice-president and PR man Yannis Moralis. Marinakis contented himself with a more modest role on the city council.
The similarities with the rise of Silvio Berlusconi and his Forza Italia movement in Milan are obvious, right down to the football slogan. Marinakis has specifically rejected that comparison, saying he wants to concentrate on his company, Capital Product Partners, and focus on creating “a job for each citizen” and attracting new foreign investment.
But by establishing an electoral power base, he has also created a defence against any moves to change the tax regime and make big business pay a larger share, which would be a priority for an incoming left-wing government.
Olympiakos 1 Syriza 0, you might say. But don’t underestimate Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras who, as it happens, has supported Panathinaikos since he was boy.
Think Manchester United versus Liverpool. And in this case the Panathinaikos fan has already promised to provide funds to help rebuild the club’s stadium — and also to help AEK, the other historic Athens club, who are currently struggling to recover, following financial crisis and relegation.
In cash terms, these subsidies might not amount to very much — maybe €20 or €30 million — but as firm Syriza commitments, they have undoubtedly helped to solidify political support in Athens, especially when repeated by regional governor Rena Dourou.
Olympiakos and Marinakis are hardly in a position to cry foul. Their own stadium was rebuilt with public funds for the 2004 Olympics. Moreover, Syriza insists that the AEK redevelopment will include the creation of public amenities and a park.
Polls suggest that Syriza will emerge from the election as the largest party and thus be awarded the 50 additional seats provided under the Greek system of proportional representation. They would probably still have to form a coalition to take office. It is the vote in Piraeus that could be interesting. Three years ago, New Democracy secured the largest vote, and two of the six seats, but Syriza were close behind them.
Olympiakos are still favourites in the title race, but when it comes to the election, Marinakis cannot be too confident about securing a home win.
