Bookmakers caught napping
I have no idea as to how the mechanics of such an undertaking works, but it has to represent a real challenge.
There seems little doubt there has to be a coming together of minds, in some shape or form, between them before the final offers are decided.
The fact they basically end up singing from the same hymn sheet sticks out like the proverbial sore thumb and it is usually a case of all of them being right or wrong, with little middle ground.
The end result is that the punter who knows what he’s doing can be presented with a massive edge.
It is simply impossible for the bookmakers to even come close to getting the majority of their prices right - they just have too many to deal with in the course of a day.
There were three particularly good examples of late, Heirloom at Dundalk, Abbakova at Tipperary and Royal Irish Hussar at Killarney.
Heirloom performed moderately in one outing as a juvenile, but showed plenty on his seasonal debut when third behind Venus De Milo and Rae’s Creek at Fairyhouse.
That he was certain to go forward was logical and the fact was in the care of Aidan O’Brien, whose horses are often capable of big improvement, was a serious plus.
He had eight rivals in that Dundalk contest, but essentially only Michael Halford’s Ebadani and Tommy Stack’s Wannabe Better were any sort of worry.
But this pair could already be regarded as professional losers, whereas Heirloom was lightly raced and had a lot of scope.
Bet365, or bet three pounds sixty five as they are rather sarcastically known in some quarters in Ireland, led the way in the morning, offering Heirloom at 11-4 and behind the other pair.
You just had to rub your eyes in disbelief, while at the same time offering a silent prayer that others would follow.
And, like lambs to the slaughter, they did just that and it was a case of 5-2 here and 5-2 there, 5-2 everywhere.
It was an unbelievable price and, like vultures, punters swooped.
When Heirloom left the Dundalk gate, he was a 9-10 shot and won in a canter.
Now I know the argument is that you cannot get accommodated in the morning. There is much truth in that, of course, but the secret is not to try and kill the so-called golden goose with one mighty belt.
Be gentle and you’ll get a few quid on okay.
Abbakova, at Tipperary, was another case.
She seemed a bit of a good thing in a Listed event and looked sure to be odds-on.
But they didn’t think so and you could have had as high as 11-8 in the morning.
Abbakova did get actually beaten into second, after being hammered right down to 1- 2.
Now the layers may have congratulated their odds compilers on getting it right, but here’s one who doesn’t see it like that.
And then, of course, Killarney on Wednesday night produced the value to beat all value in the shape of Royal Irish Hussar.
Again our olds friends Bet365 led the way, offering a staggering 9-1 in the morning.
And the others weren’t far behind, with offers of 8-1 and 7-1 available.
Returned the 5-4 favourite, Royal Irish Hussar won by 11 lengths.
The bottom line is punters who keep backing horses at odds that are far too generous will always end up a winner.
Do your homework and be ready to strike. It’s the future.
The weather was baking, and has been so for weeks, so ensuring adequate watering had to be a nightmare.
But, over the four days, there wasn’t one complaint about the ground, at least none I heard.
That has to be regarded as some performance.
The atmosphere was terrific throughout the enclosures and the superb weather, naturally, was a big help.
Monday night produced a massive talking point, with the disqualification of Arthur Moore’s Positive Vibes in a flat handicap.
I have since looked at the race on several occasions and the inexplicable decision by the stewards becomes increasingly difficult to fathom.
Shalaman, who got the race, had a clear run on the outside of Positive Vibes with less than 150 yards to run, but his rider, Leigh Roche, decided to switch inside and try for what was a non existent gap between the winner and Castle Guest.
It looked an open-and-shut case and most observers, I would venture to suggest, thought it would take the stewards little time to confirm the placings.
But, no, they knew better and saw something that the vast majority had missed.
Moore has decided to appeal the verdict and it will be heaping insult on injury if Positive Vibes isn’t reinstated.
in the Group 1 Keeneland Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh on August 11 is certainly interesting.
When O’Brien makes such a long-term plan he means business and is a real statement of intent.
War Command looked some horse at Royal Ascot, winning the Coventry Stakes by a National Hunt distance, six lengths.
Considering he went there on the back of a scrambling success in a bad maiden at Leopardstown, it was some display.
was never better illustrated than by the Australian import, Sea Siren, at Fairyhouse last Sunday.
She was very uneasy in the market and there was no shortage of players on Betfair willing to take her on at 6-4.
As a triple Group 1 winner in her native country, she had a hefty 7lb penalty and that probably made her appear vulnerable.
But Sea Siren swamped Russian Soul in the closing stages and is very exciting.
It is a long time since Ballydoyle housed a proper flying machine, but they may well have one now.
