Big two likely to set the standard
This is where it starts. This is where the summer really starts. Two houses, both alike in dignity, both generally expected to be the ones taking the field at Croke Park on September 8, get their campaigns underway with a road trip apiece.
One go to Limerick and are guaranteed to get plenty of it; the other travel to Tullamore and it would be fantastic if they did get plenty of it. If the former were to lose it would be nothing more than a predictable surprise; if the latter were to lose it would be the shock of the young century, the biggest turn-up in hurling since Antrim’s victory in the 1989 All-Ireland semi-final.
Diverting as it is to paint apocalyptic pictures, however, let’s not overdo the scope for convulsions on the Richter Scale tomorrow. Limerick may, and it’s a pretty big ‘may’, beat Tipperary; Offaly will not beat Kilkenny. Hurling doesn’t do Super Sundays the way Sky Sports do.
The 4pm throw-in is the one to be in front of the telly for, needless to remark.
Tipp and Limerick provided one of the better games of Championship 2012, and the Treaty county’s continuing penal servitude in Division 1B renders that Semple Stadium encounter our only real reference point.
Remember how it unfolded? The visitors a point up at half-time. The hosts forced to send to Lorrha for the fire brigade six minutes after the restart. Bonner Maher proceeding to discombobulate the Limerick defence in the way that only Bonner Maher can discombobulate enemy defences. Tipperary by four points in the end after Maher assisted for 1-3 and their other four subs all hit a point apiece.
If no two games are the same, that match nonetheless contained a brace of disturbing omens for John Allen’s men tomorrow. One was, as referred to a moment ago, Tipp’s superior strength in depth. The other was the losers’ inability to see out the trip.
The first of those precedents shouldn’t obtain again; Allen is rather better stocked on the bench this time around, his reserves numbering no fewer than three of the forwards who started against Tipperary last year plus Niall Moran, who came on. The second of them, well...
Let’s not beat around the bush here. Irrespective of how good their coaching regime may be, is it really to be expected that another springtime spent languishing in the second flight has steeled Limerick to get the distance now? To maintain their first-half pace for 70 minutes and injury-time on hard ground on a warm afternoon? As they failed to do against both Tipp and Kilkenny last summer? Even nursing a hangover from the Leinster final, Kilkenny took them for four goals in the All Ireland quarter-final – and Tipperary are more of a goals-fixated team than Kilkenny. Limerick won’t concede four goals tomorrow and win.
They won’t concede three and win either. It is easy to overlook how consistent Tipperary have been in the provincial arena of late. Eleven wins in 12 outings since 2008. The best Munster championship outfit since the Cork of Donal O’Grady and Allen.
It is not easy to overlook how wretched Limerick have been in the provincial arena for the past 10 years.
Yet, as their manager pointed out during the week, every aspiring team has to start somewhere. Like Clare in 1995. They surprised Cork at the Gaelic Grounds and in that one single bound they were up and running, ploughing ahead into a future they scripted for themselves as they went along.
And Wexford the following year. They beat Kilkenny in Croke Park and suddenly their world was new and bright and devoid of striped predators.
Journeys, single steps and all that.
Long-suffering Limerick supporters – is there any other kind, to paraphrase the historian and long-suffering Wexford supporter Kevin Whelan? – can take encouragement from the recent challenge game against Kilkenny at Staker Wallace.
The home team not only looked good but won well. What’s more, Kilkenny don’t tend to lose matches. Not even challenge matches. Not even with an understrength XV.
Nor was Declan Hannon’s indifferent display at Semple Stadium last night week any cause for excessive gloom. That was nothing more than a classic case of seniors-underachieving-at-U21 syndrome. Still, it’s hard to see Hannon flourishing at full-forward with his back towards goal, even if Seamus Hickey does possess the kind of sweep and dash that makes him more likely to succeed up front than most converted defenders.
Tipperary didn’t go for it at Nowlan Park last month. They’ll be going for it tomorrow. And here’s a long-range observation: a drawn game somewhere along their camino this summer will do them no harm at all. The more opportunities to acquaint themselves with what Eamon O’Shea has planned for them, the better.
The absence of Sideshow Bob looks a blessing for everyone, Lar himself included. But one man under obvious pressure to put his best foot forward is Shane McGrath.
Although Tipp don’t need to string three men across midfield like they did in the league final, it won’t be long before Noel McGrath finds himself posted there should Shane be struggling. And a midfield pairing of Noel McGrath and Brendan Maher has just about everything, including points from out the field.
The bookies are pegging Limerick at 11/10 with a five-point start. It’ll be a disappointing day for the Munster championship, never mind for Limerick themselves (not to mention your correspondent’s pocket), if the home team can’t at least make that work.
“Yes, a great day for Offaly,” as someone didn’t say coming out of the 1998 All-Ireland final (Offaly 2-16 Kilkenny 1-13). “But I betcha this much... Themselves and Kilkenny will meet eight times in the championship between now and 2013. Kilkenny will win every match. And their average winning margin will be 14.75 points per game.” To repeat, nobody actually said this.
What can be expected of the home side in Tullamore tomorrow, an afternoon which marks the end of Henry Shefflin’s unbroken championship service after 62 not out, quite possibly the most mindblowing statistic in the great man’s portfolio of mindblowing statistics? Danny Owens had it right during the week. Move the ball as quickly as they can, like the Offaly of old were genetically programmed to do against Kilkenny.
And the Offaly of today do possess a core of genuinely gifted hurlers, notably Rory Hanniffy, of whom too little has been seen in recent years, and Shane Dooley, who, in the absence of better support, will be largely confined to doing his damage from placed balls.
The other cause for the underdogs is that Kilkenny won’t have a full tank of petrol under them. To win Leinster this year, remember, they’ll have to win three games. They won’t have forgotten last summer, when they prepared so carefully for Dublin in the semi-final as to be drained next time out versus Galway. No repeat of the 1998 All-Ireland final here, then. But surely no 15-point margin of defeat either.
