PADDY HEANEY: Trawl for talent or stay up — a catch 22 league scenario
My friend’s ire was raised by a piece in which I tried to predict how Armagh would fare in this year’s Division Two.
My forecast wasn’t sunny. I concluded that while relegation was a possibility, the Orchard County would probably finish in mid-table. I also suggested this would be a fairly decent outcome.
But my friend was not amused and I received a text from him Tuesday morning. He wanted to arrange a wager so that he could make me suffer for my stupidity. Unfortunately for him, his economic circumstances have placed certain limitations on the amount of pain he can extract from those who cause him such offence.
As he claimed to be “skinto”, the wager was eventually set at a cup of coffee and a very large bun.
If Armagh secure promotion, he wins. If Armagh take the plunge to Division Three, I’ll be brushing bun crumbs from the front of my shirt.
(If Armagh fail to go up or down, the bet is null and void, though that will not stop me from claiming a moral victory).
Unlike most bets I place, I have few doubts about this one. I just can’t see how Armagh can secure a top-two finish in a division that includes Galway, Laois, Derry, Westmeath, Wexford, Louth, and Longford.
My lack of faith in Armagh has got nothing to do with how I rate the abilities of the players and their manager, Paul Grimley. The simple fact is that Grimley is embarking on a massive rebuilding job. He has a surfeit of young, inexperienced footballers and former fringe players. The absence of Jamie Clarke, his best forward, and the other Crossmaglen players is another massive handicap.
Unlike other counties who can afford to sprinkle two or three new players into every league team, Grimley is going to pick sides that are dominated by unfamiliar faces.
Anyone who watched a few games in the January warm-up competitions will appreciate the considerable gulf between battle-hardened footballers and rookies.
In the Tyrone games I watched, there was a discernible difference between players like Joe McMahon, Conor Gormley, Sean Cavanagh and their younger team-mates.
While newcomers often registered fine displays, it was the old hands who supplied the composure and solidity which steered the Red Hands to five straight victories.
Take that know-how, craft and astute decision-making out of any team and it will struggle. The results at the weekend lend further weight to that theory.
The Kerry team which lined out against Mayo on Sunday was missing the guiding hand of several decorated veterans who were replaced with less well-known individuals such as Jonathan Lyne, Peter Crowley, Johnny Buckley, Michael Geaney, Michael O’Donoghue, James O’Donoghue, and Conor Cox.
Even the mighty Kingdom can’t win with that volume of raw personnel. Mayo chinned them.
Cork suffered a similar fate. Full-back Michael Shields, centre half-back Graham Canty, midfielder Alan O’Connor, and centre half-forward Ciarán Sheehan were listed in the Cork team that was due to play Dublin in Croke Park. All four were replaced in the starting line-up. Like Kerry, the Rebels also lost by six points, 1-18 to 2-9.
Of course, it’s imperative that managers assess new players and the league is the perfect arena to conduct that exercise.
However, it’s a very delicate balancing act. Wholesale experimentation, regardless of whether you are Armagh or Kerry, will almost inevitably result in defeat. Alternatively, the manager who sticks with a settled team and refuses to introduce new players is playing a risky game.
If a few of his first choice line-up get injured during the Championship, his reserves are going to face a baptism of fire unless they have tasted some action in the league.
For managers operating in Division One, survival is the be-all and end-all. The statistics speak for themselves. Only one team since 2000 has won the Sam Maguire from Division Two. Seven of last year’s quarter-finalists came from the top tier. Since 2008, the year when the league was restructured into four hierarchical tables, no county that has been relegated from Division One has won the Sam Maguire.
After just one game the fight for survival has already become extremely interesting.
Last year Donegal secured their Division One status by targeting their home games. Although they lost their four games on the road, Donegal’s wins over Mayo, Cork, and Armagh ensured they stayed in the winning stable.
Securing those three home wins will be very difficult for Donegal this season. The All-Ireland champions are due to host Down, Kerry, and Dublin. Down is the only match where two points look relatively safe.
After losing his opening match, Kerry boss Eamonn Fitzmaurice could soon be reviewing his experimentation policy. The Kingdom will also struggle to win all of their home games against Dublin, Down, and Cork. Should they lose one of those fixtures, Kerry will need to pick up points on the road, which they’ll not manage with a team of novices.
This year’s Division One is going to be a gripping competition with the relegation fight set to be even more engrossing than the battle for honours.
While Down look destined to take the drop, one other quality team will join them. Take your pick from Donegal, Kerry, Cork, Dublin, Tyrone, Mayo, and Kildare.
Bear in mind that whoever goes down can be struck off the list of potential All-Ireland champions.
As the threat of relegation deepens, expect fewer new faces to be appearing in Division One.
