Red or Blue — place your bets

FOR ALL the excited talk of a four-or-five-team title race, Sunday January 22 has proved — as we all secretly knew from the very start — that it will just be down to two when the ribbons are attached to the Premier League trophy in May.

The English top division has always been that way; whether it was Liverpool and Forest, United and Leeds, United and Arsenal or United and Chelsea; there have always been two teams who emerge as the biggest challengers and that’s the way supporters understand it best.

It’s the same in British politics; the country often wants change but when a third party emerges to challenge the reds and the blues, voters feel uncomfortable. It’s why you’ll never see proportional representation at Westminster and why being a liberal is such a thankless task. Well, there is no need for the football voters to feel uncomfortable this morning; they can be safe in the knowledge that it’s red versus blues for the remainder of the season and also enjoy the added frissance that the blues are represented not by Chelsea but by Manchester City.

Their thrilling performance against a dangerous Tottenham side, completed by Mario Balotelli’s nerveless penalty in injury-time, made a big statement at a time when their most important players, Vincent Kompany and Yaya Toure, were unavailable. It ended talk, which was always over-ambitious, that Spurs could make a serious challenge for the title themselves and proved Roberto Mancini’s side are not likely to buckle at the first sight of the finishing line, which has always been so warmly greeted by their across-town rivals in the past.

Now neutral fans will have to pick which side of Manchester they are supporting for the remainder of the campaign and it would be a major surprise if the race was over before the last day of the season. Neither team have Champions League football to distract them (although City’s focus on the Europa League will probably be greater than their neighbours, given the paucity of silverware in their trophy room). And neither team lacks backbone.

City proved that by recovering both from an FA Cup defeat against United and from a disappointing Champions League exit to continue their domination of domestic football; and their resolve was summed up by that late goal against Spurs which could well define their season.

United, meanwhile, have proved it by recovering from a 6-1 hammering by City at Old Trafford as well as a Champions League disaster of their own; and yesterday they also survived a spirited fightback by Arsenal at the Emirates to stamp their mark on the title race, which City lead by just three points.

The performance of Alex Ferguson’s side, especially in the first half when they ruthlessly exploited Arsenal’s defensive problems, was a champion’s performance and indicated that United still have the stomach for a battle this year despite so many setbacks.

Ferguson, a master at getting his players fit and on form for the title run-in, remains confident he can do the same again and with matchwinner Danny Wellbeck emerging as a real talent up front — his energy and link-up play make him far more than just a finisher — there is enough know-how within the United camp to stick with it to the very end.

What is certain, of course, is that Arsenal — once the people’s choice with their wonderful attacking football — would get fewer votes than the Monster Raving Loony Party if there was a poll to choose who will be crowned champions. The problems at the Emirates deepened with yesterday’s result because Wenger’s decision to take off spirited youngster Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and replace him with out-of-touch Andriy Arshavin was greeted with a resounding chorus of boos as years of pent-up frustration burst to the surface; and nobody missed the irony when tv cameras cheekily panned to an ‘In Arsene We Trust’ banner hanging from the upper tier.

The problem for Arsenal if that if trust is gone then unity disappears with it; and considering their current plight unity is desperately needed to finish in the top four, a task that even Wenger now admits is “difficult.”

But those issues are on the periphery when it comes to the title race; as are the myriad of problems facing Chelsea manager Andre Villas-Boas who has more building work to complete than even his rival across London. The real race for silverware centres only on Manchester; and in football’s first-past-the-post system a manager can certainly be hung but parliament cannot.

When the counting is over on May 13 there will only be one winner. It’s red or it’s blue; so place your bets now.