The fine line between right and wrong
IT HAS been an up and down campaign for both Wales and Ireland, making today a key game for both Declan Kidney and Warren Gatland. Home defeats to France and England set a negative tone early on even if the pressure on both camps has only been eased somewhat by respective wins over Italy and Scotland.
Today’s contest is unquestionably a tournament-defining moment and much will depend on how the key players on both sides react to growing pressure. That offers Ireland a distinct advantage. Circumstances surrounding the performances of their representatives in the Heineken Cup over the years have helped to mould and shape the key individuals on both teams.
This Irish side is sprinkled with players with Heineken Cup winners medals. The Welsh have none, only a collection that have failed repeatedly at the quarter and semi-final stages. Yes, they do have several of the side that won a Grand Slam in Gatland’s first season back in 2008 but that came out of the blue, over a period of seven weeks. Wales have never come close to reproducing that form since.
You would go a long way to find three more mentally strong individuals in the same international team as Brian O’Driscoll, Ronan O’Gara and Paul O’Connell. They were the key individuals who steered Ireland over the finish line in Rome last month. Wales, despite the presence of some highly talented individuals, do not have one player who comes close to providing the same mental strength when a game is in the balance. Just think back to the closing minutes of Ireland’s last visit to the Millennium Stadium.
By reinstating James Hook at out-half, Wales have removed the one steadying influence in their back-line in Stephen Jones. Hook is an exceptionally talented player but there are grave doubts about his ability to control and manage a game. He plays off the cuff and nobody quite knows what’s coming next. Even the Ospreys prefer Dan Bigger in this crucial role. Give Hook space and time to play and he can be devastating, stifle him and his ability to cope falls into question. In close contests, and I believe that this will be another one, mental fortitude matters big time. Ireland have it over Wales on that front.
THE ultimate compliment one could pay to Ireland’s back row of David Wallace, Jamie Heaslip, new boy Sean O’Brien and reserve Denis Leamy is that the injured Stephen Ferris has hardly been missed to date. Wallace and Heaslip have now amassed an abundance of experience at this stage with Ireland and the Lions, and become the targets of young bucks springing up all around them. It will be no different today as the two Welsh successes of the Six Nations, Sam Warburton and Dan Lydiate, present themselves in the back row.
They have worked so well as a unit with former captain Ryan Jones that Martyn Williams now finds himself surplus to requirements. Wales are overflowing with pace and power in their back-line but cannot function without quick ball. Gatland is very worried about the ability and effectiveness of the Irish back row to stifle their efforts at the breakdown and has aired his views with referee Jonathan Kaplan on the subject.
Heaslip and O’Brien have both been guilty of giving away silly penalties in recent weeks so they will be closely watched by the South African referee. Ireland are smarter and more experienced in this vital sector of the field even if Lydiate and Jones offer Wales greater lineout options at the tail. In all other aspects, Ireland are superior but cannot afford to take the Welsh young guns for granted.
WHEN Declan Kidney loses the rag in the dressing room, something serious must be wrong. Some would say he is about four weeks too late in reading the riot act when it comes to addressing Ireland’s penchant for giving away silly penalties in this championship. Then again, when it comes to indiscipline, Ireland are not alone as Wales have been even worse offenders.
Shane Williams and Jamie Roberts have publicly come out and chastised their team-mates since the Italian game for the continued concession of avoidable penalties at the scrum and for over-competing at the ruck.
The two Welsh Lions could just as easily have been talking about Ireland, though, and the word from the Irish camp this week is that “enough is enough”. It has to stop or players will be hauled off by the management or will be in danger of losing their place.
It will be interesting to see what happens from here. There is a fine line between competing for the ball in the contact area, with a view to buying those vital seconds to get the defensive line organised, and taking hands away.
Donncha O’Callaghan alluded to this when he commented that Ireland couldn’t afford to have 15 altar boys either. It will be interesting to see how this evolves in the opening quarter as both teams will be anxious to stay on the right side of Kaplan, while at the same time trying to remain as disruptive and awkward as possible.
Gatland has reintroduced Leigh Halfpenny to the side to strengthen his goal-kicking options and his ability to convert kickable opportunities from all of 55 metres will put even more pressure on Ireland.
It is inevitable that some penalties will be conceded but the key is knowing when to step over the line and when to hold back. Ireland hasn’t got that balance right lately. Given there is unlikely to be much between the sides on the scoreboard entering the last ten minutes, that is going to be crucial. On the other hand if you stop competing in the contact area you are inviting trouble.
Whoever negotiates that fine line to the referee’s satisfaction is likely to be smiling at the end.
