Better ground will see Lillie Langtry in a better light
That seems to be the most logical explanation for the defeat of Lillie Langtry in Sunday’s Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh.
All the indications, prior to the race, were that she would handle the surface. Mind you, there was no evidence in the form book, the most reliable yardstick of all, of course, but it was simply the volume of money there was for the filly.
The gut instinct of bookmakers, when conditions are as bad as that, is to go looking to get a short-priced favourite.
They were able to get her alright, but at a far tighter price than might have been anticipated. That was because punters, not the ordinary joe soaps, but those who play big and have a well-marked card, were desperate to be on.
Lillie Langtry was never going to deliver and was in trouble over two furlongs down. Eventually, she struggled home a modest third.
This was not the filly who had impressed so much in a Group 2 at Leopardstown previously. On ground described as good to yielding, Lillie Langtry bounded clear in the closing stages.
An indication of what a difference the surface clearly makes to her comes by looking at stable companion, Famous.
When Lillie Langtry won at Leopardstown, she had Famous six lengths behind in fifth place. But in the Moyglare, Famous finished second, a length and three parts in front of Lillie Langtry.
They had hardly gone by the line when the off-course layers had their reps in full flow, pushing out Lillie’s odds for the 1000 Guineas.
That’s a race which takes place on May 2 of next year and having a wager on it now makes one a candidate for the lads in the white coats!
Nevertheless, if a punter was disposed to that sort of betting then he would have difficulty resisting temptation.
I’ll bet my bottom dollar Lillie Langtry will leave this effort a long way behind, when meeting ground on which flat racing was meant to take place.
In contrast to Lillie Langtry that juvenile of Tracy Collins’, Arctic, doesn’t half revel in heavy ground.
He won the Group 3 Round Tower Stakes at the Curragh with any amount in hand, looking as if he was doing half-speed.
That followed on winning a Listed event equally easily at headquarters, again when the emphasis was more on swimming than running, to go with his debut success in a bad Bellewstown maiden.
Quotes of between 16-1, pathetic, and 33-1 for the English 2000 Guineas are, though, almost laughable.
They do get plenty of proper weather in England, in contrast to this rain-soaked, God-forsaken, oh let’s be charitable, island.
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WILL it be the race of the season, or a total farce! That’s the question as far as Saturday’s Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown is concerned.
This has the potential to be an absolute cracker, or afford Irish Derby winner, Fame and Glory, the opportunity to perform a lucrative lap of honour.
The word good had been appearing in the going descriptions for Leopardstown all week and that track had to be leading a charmed life! The rain, however, bucketed down there yesterday
Everyone hopes Sea The Stars will run, but he’s been a massive price for many days now on Betfair, as high as 15-2, and there are clearly people who have quite long believed there is virtually no possibility of him taking part.
If he doesn’t show then we can take as read that neither will Mastercraftsman. You simply cannot envisage any way the Ballydoyle team will allow Mastercraftsman and Fame And Glory to go head-to-head, in the absence of Sea The Stars. Indeed, you could have had 20-1 Mastercraftsman on Betfair this week.
It just wouldn’t make sense, with lots of end-of-season targets open to both and the Prix du Moulin there for Mastercraftsman in France on Sunday.
If Sea The Stars runs then expect Ballydoyle to throw two massive arrows in his direction.
If, as I expect, he swerves the contest, then it will be Fame And Glory, accompanied by some Ballydoyle no-hopers, and Dermot Weld’s Casual Conquest who will constitute a particularly disappointing field.
Hopefully, that’s not the final scenario which will emerge, although we won’t be holding our collective breaths.
