Luck of the draw finally comes good for Kidney
While he will be reluctant to admit it, the allocation of pools for the World Cup in New Zealand in 2011 has been kind to Ireland. Let’s face it, it could have been far worse.
In 2003 and 2007 Eddie O Sullivan had to negotiate a win over either the host nation (Australia and France respectively) or Argentina to progress to the quarter final. We all know what happened. In three years time a win over Italy should be sufficient for Ireland to advance to the quarter final on the assumption that the minnows, in this case likely to be two from Romania, Georgia and USA, will be accounted for.
The difficulty on this occasion arises after the initial stages. Should Ireland finish second in the pool then in all likelihood the reigning champions South Africa will be waiting. Should Ireland top their pool for the first time in the history of this tournament by beating Australia and then Italy, a potential clash with Wales is the likely reward. Last Saturday, Warren Gatland’s side spared the northern hemisphere teams a whitewash by our Tri-Nations visitors with a great performance in what was, for me, the game of the autumn series.
At present, despite the influence of the ELV’s, Wales play an excellent brand of rugby. While everyone else seems obsessed with kicking the ball as far and as often as they possibly can, the Welsh favour a possession game using the width of the pitch to good effect. The secret to their approach is the clever lines of their support runners. The ball carrier always has options on his inside and outside with trailing runners also fixing defenders.
They were full value for their win over Australia and I fear that having the opportunity to play all three Tri-Nations teams in November will make them an even better side when the Six Nations starts in February. The only blight for them was a World Cup draw that pits them with South Africa, Fiji and, potentially, Samoa who should qualify from Oceania 1. That pool will offer intense physical demands. At least Gatland has three years to prepare for it.
PREPARATION time is the one ingredient lacking for a lot of clubs as the Heineken Cup resumes this weekend, especially for the English and Welsh clubs given that their national sides had an extra international last weekend. With both Munster and Leinster facing French opposition, unfortunately they will not be in a position to capitalise.
Munster have by far the more difficult assignment against Clermont Auvergne. Despite the highs of winning against Gloucester, Saracens and even Toulouse in the final, the corresponding game in Clermont last season was the contest that stood out for me. The opening thirty minutes was like a video re-run of early French Heineken Cup experiences with the home team monopolising possession and scoring at will. This time, however, experience and craft intervened as Ronan O’Gara changed the shape of the game by keeping the ball in hand and maximising the running ability of Lifeimi Mafi, Rua Tipoki and Doug Howlett, who was making his debut. It produced a most unlikely losing bonus point which ultimately saved Munster’s qualification hopes.
This time around Clermont are a difficult side to get a handle on. Their domestic form has been erratic to say the least and losing to the French championship’s basement side Mont-de-Marsan last weekend was an incredible result. Having already lost to Sale Sharks at home in their opening game, Clermont have one last chance to resurrect their qualification hopes. That is why this is such a big game for Munster. If they can squeeze a win of any kind this weekend you feel that Clermont will have little appetite for the return game in Thomond Park on Saturday week.
Last June Clermont lost a French championship final for the ninth time in the clubs history. In fact they have never won the famed Bouclier de Brennus. That defeat (having also lost the final the previous season) to Toulouse seems to have torn the heart out of their side. South African world cup winning captain John Smit has since returned to Durban and Vern Cotter’s side have also endured a long list of injuries.
THE one bit of good news for them last weekend was the return of captain Aurelien Rougerie. If he is back to full fitness then he can be inspirational. Any backline with talent such as Pierre Mignoni, Brock James, Benoit Baby, Anthony Floch, Marius Joubert and Napolioni Nalaga deserve respect. While some of those may not be available due to injury, you feel that they will still have sufficient talent on display and will want to prove a point against the reigning champions.
Up front that Argentine tormentor, hooker Mario Ledesma is still going strong and no doubt will harbour bad recent memories from facing so many of the Munster pack against Ireland in Croke Park.
At least the continued absence of his Argentine colleague at tight head prop Martin Scelzo should leave him a little vulnerable.
The feelgood factor that is still floating around after Munster’s heroics against the All Blacks should inspire the returning band of internationals. The loss of Denis Leamy continues a horrible run of bad luck for the Tipperary man and he will prove a loss as this campaign racks up in intensity. The experience of losing at the Parc Des Sports Marcel Michelin last season will stand to Paul O Connell’s men and should provide that extra incentive to win on this occasion.
Leinster despite an untimely sequence of injuries to key personnel in their backline will still have too much fire power for a Castres side that have no ambitions in Europe this season as they fight to stave off relegation in the French championship.
As only one of two teams in the tournament on maximum points, Leinster need to go for the jugular in this fixture and wrap up another bonus point win. With Wasps and Edinburgh battling it out between them in their pool over the next two weekends Leinster have a great opportunity to put a bit of daylight between themselves and the rest by targeting a minimum of nine points in these back to back fixtures against Castres over the next ten days.
It would take all the pressure off them for when they eventually travel to London to meet Ian McGeechan’s side who will be thirsting for revenge after the hammering they received at the RDS. Leinster could well be qualified even at that stage.
