Donal Lenihan: If Ireland can improve accuracy, history is still in their hands
Catching the best: All Blacks Brodie Retallick during team training in Dunedin this week.
The more nuanced and sophisticated rugby has become, the more it highlights the fact that the fundamentals of the game still revolve around a solid and productive set piece. You can have all the predetermined phase play mapped out in advance, designed to manipulate the defensive structure of the opposition like chess pieces on a board.
But to implement that plan requires a steady flow of quality ball from the scrum and lineout. So much of Ireland’s clever launch plays stem from a productive lineout. While Ireland lost four in total at Eden Park, two were in very advantageous attacking positions. Having those pilfered not only offered the All Blacks a massive energy lift, it also encouraged them to keep challenging Ireland in the air with three massive men - Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick and Scott Barrett - to pressurise Dan Sheehan’s throw.
Key to the hosts success was veteran lock Whitelock who has been in charge of their lineout strategy and calling for a decade now. A self confessed line outnerd, he’s the equivalent of having a set piece coach on the field.
His loss for the remainder of the series, due to self confessed concussion symptoms that went undetected during the game, comes as a big blow, especially when a ready made replacement in Tupou Vaa’i was simultaneously ruled out due to covid.
It has proved a double blow as Barrett, so effective in challenging at the tail of Ireland’s lineout thus impacting on the best attacking ball of all, has now been shifted to more familiar surroundings in the second row. It also robs New Zealand of an additional ball carrier and jumper as Whitelock is replaced, in effect, by another open side flanker in Dalton Papalii.
Speaking of psychological boosts, the New Zealand scrum proved every bit as impactful as the lineout. When Ireland opted for a scrum from a kickable penalty, when leading by five points after a very impressive opening 15 minutes, the subsequent penalty awarded against Andrew Porter prompted a delirious response from the All Black front row.
They chased Ireland at every scrum after that and made light of the absence of first choice props Joe Moody and Casey Laulala. It didn’t help Ireland’s cause in any way that Porter was forced to put in an exhausting 80 minute shift with Cian Healy not quite 100% fit despite occupying a place on the bench.
Having had to deal with the massive bulk and power of Ofa Tuungafasi, who was instructed to empty the tank in every scrum in the knowledge that he would be withdrawn after 55 minutes, Porter then had to deal with an equally explosive replacement in Angus Ta’avao.
That situation cannot continue and one hopes that the extra weeks recovery will enable Healy relieve the work load on Porter tomorrow. Ireland’s front five cover carried nowhere near the impact of the New Zealand bench last week. That has to change to enable Paul O'Connell’s set piece compete on level terms for the entire 80 minutes.
New Zealand’s attacking game came under the microscope after their European tour last November with accusations that it had become stale and predictable.
Retallick spoke openly last week about the fact that they struggled to deal with the rush defence favoured by a number of the Six Nations teams and that adjustments had to be made. Ireland defend close to ruck and often employ a shooter to obstruct the passing channel of the opposition half backs. As a result of good line speed, the New Zealand ball carriers struggled to generate momentum on the gain line.
Last weekend head coach Ian Foster made subtle adjustments. He shifted the point of attack and looked to play outside the first two Irish defenders by utilizing the speed of Aaron Smith’s pass, skipping the first two potential ball carriers to hit the third forward out from the ruck. This helped to create the additional width they crave.
Forearmed is forewarned and Ireland should be better prepared for a similar approach this week. Given that Smith’s pass from the base to the third running forward is in the air that fraction of a second longer, it even affords the opportunity for rich pickings in the form of an intercept should Ireland manage to get their defensive line speed right.
Adjustments at the breakdown are also required as New Zealand got away with coming in from the side in addition to taking Irish players out beyond the ball. What they lose in the lineout with Whitelock’s absence they will gain in the key battle for turnovers with Papalii adding to the poaching threat already provided by Addie Savea and Sam Cane.
I’ve no doubt Andy Farrell will have sought clarification on those breakdown issues, behind the scenes, this week and that South African referee Jaco Peyper will be fully aware of Ireland’s concerns. Whether or not he opts to put New Zealand under more scrutiny remains to be seen. Peyper has never been on Ireland’s wish list of top officials.
Despite the convincing defeat in the opening test, Farrell cut a very positive and convincing figure in the post match press conference. The chief driver of his positively and belief that the series was still very much in the melting pot was due to the relative success enjoyed by Ireland in attack.
It’s not every day you score three tries against the All Blacks in their own backyard. Couple that with the fact Ireland were held up over the New Zealand line on four separate occasions. In addition both Josh van der Flier and Joey Carbery failed to control the ball in the act of grounding.
The implications of the recent law change that sees the defending team rewarded with a goal line drop out as opposed to a scrum for the attacking side when held up in the in goal area was seen to devastating effect from an Irish perspective last weekend. It provided a release valve for New Zealand on so many occasions and forced Ireland 40 metres down the field.
Ireland must take confidence from the fact that they are creating all those scoring opportunities. What they need now is more patience on the ball once they get themselves into try scoring positions. Their clever launch plays also proved effective while, on two occasions, Johnny Sexton’s deft chips into the space between the New Zealand midfield and back three could well have produced a fourth try had the bounce being a little bit kinder.
On another day, those scoring chances are converted. Ireland have to believe that and continue to manipulate the New Zealand defensive line to suit their cause. While Carbery played well when called upon to replace Sexton prematurely before the break, the captain looked really sharp in that opening quarter when his side played their best rugby.
The fact that Ireland are playing on a fast track, in an indoor arena, here in Dunedin guarantees the conditions to show the continuity game favoured by Farrell. It should also prove advantageous in launching their superior kicking game in perfect playing conditions.
The necessity to win this test and keep the series alive coupled with the fact that, to the surprise of everyone, Sexton is cleared under World Rugby’s ever changing regulations surrounding concussion to play, means Farrell has resisted starting Carbery in a key test for at least another week.
Ireland are a far more potent attacking force when Sexton is steering the ship. While it’s not a healthy situation to be in with the World Cup fast approaching, the massive lift to be gained from winning a first ever test against New Zealand on their home patch is too tempting for Farrell to overlook right now.
Despite last weeks setback, if Ireland can improve their accuracy at the set piece and breakdown, the opportunity to make history still stands. With the lessons from Auckland fully absorbed, we’re about to find out if this Irish side is as good as we like to think it is. Time has come to deliver the performance of the season. That’s what it’s going to take.
