Ronan O'Gara: Keeping Johnny Sexton on board makes sense, but who's ready for the hand-off?

Looking after No 1; Johnny Sexton.

HARRY Randall starts for England against Ireland tomorrow. The Bristol nine is retained by Eddie Jones ahead of Ben Youngs, the most capped England international in history. Youngs is 32 and the ‘squad father’ of the group. And he’s still got game. Nevertheless, for this Six Nations ‘semi-final, as Eddie calls it, the coach needs to see what Harry’s game is all about.

There are obvious, if facile, comparisons to the Irish question at No 10 and it is very interesting in the context of how the respective England and Ireland managements interpret their build-up to the 2023 World Cup.

Eddie Jones has form, good form when it comes to setting his clock by the World Cup. He’s been involved in four finals and though his manner is not to everyone’s taste, he has done enough that no one should be second-guessing moves like bringing in NRL coach Anthony Seibold to lead up his defence unit. 

Eddie will be down 30% of his recognised firepower at Twickenham tomorrow but my bet is he’s not losing any sleep about the absent Vunipolas, Tuilagi and Owen Farrell. He needs to see what Randall and co are like against “the most cohesive side in the world.” 

That the IRFU and Johnny Sexton have come to an agreement to retain his services up to the 2023 World Cup is no galloping shock. His age is a compromising ingredient, but the management of the back-up out-half situation has not gone well, though little of that is the management or IRFU's fault.

Eighteen months is a long time away if you’re Johnny Sexton. Think next November’s autumn internationals and add on another year after that. Eighteen months is not a long time in the context of Andy Farrell’s opportunities to get Johnny’s back-up up to speed – and the back-up to Joey up to speed too.

Time will be the sole arbiter of this Sexton decision but it makes sense on many levels. If there was a deal in the offing for one more season, it was a no-brainer extending it to include the World Cup in France. That no one has put their hand up in real terms to take his shirt strengthens Johnny’s hand. 

Let’s put ourselves in Irish management shoes. They have kept Peter O’Mahony, they have retained Conor Murray and now they have extended Johnny’s contract. All three are involved at Twickenham tomorrow. Leadership is a critical element in any team set-up, and nobody is going to jettison leaders like that without a compelling reason. It is clear that Johnny’s judgement in clutch moments remains a source of great comfort to all. When it comes to these matters, age is less a consideration than experience.

The public seems to see the contract announcement as big news. It’s a standard play. Andy Farrell loves the way Johnny manages the attack. In terms of this Saturday, with Johnny on form, he is better than Joey Carbery. That’s the piece of the puzzle that’s in the Munster ten’s hands. Get better, kick better, force the issue.

That management and the Union have committed to Sexton being part of the World Cup plan also means additional considerations come into play – from how frequently is this guy available to how are they going to keep that bite between him and his successors. 

There are other considerations. Johnny is one of a 40-man squad, each with their own ceilings. It’s important that high achievers like Tadhg Furlong see this approach as a positive, reaffirming confidence that the group is being driven by the right man, that having a 37-year-old in the pivot stacks up for Ireland in terms of achieving targets in France next year. 

The trouble is we don’t know that at the minute because we are still too far away. The biggest mistake people are making this week is projecting Johnny into the number ten shirt in September 2023, and you can’t do that.

To be truthful, it’s an unsatisfactory situation for Ireland to be over-reliant on Tadhg Furlong and Johnny Sexton. We have a back-up ten underplayed and starved of minutes, and we have a 37-year-old veteran who might be asked to play Saturday, train hard Tuesday, then play Saturday for five or six weeks in a row. 

People know that Carbery and his kicking game remain under scrutiny because to play high-level cup rugby, you need a fairly bullet-proof kicking game. The reaction to his Italian performance was disproportionate, but everyone is aware that he needs to be hitting the sweet spot, literally and metaphorically, to oust Johnny.

Sexton’s store credit is very good in this regard, even if he’s thrown in one or two wahoojocks in his time. There was a legendary NRL player from North Queensland, Johnathan Thurston, who didn’t have the sweetest kicking style but seemed to be able to will them between the upright in the clutch moments. He would whip it 10 metres outside the right posts and draw it back in. My point is that Sexton can do these things, but Carbery needs to be icing everything. And when opportunities are limited, that’s a tough needle to thread. People shouldn’t forget either that not too long ago there were plenty who wanted rid of Johnny Sexton. It’s a fickle world.

Farrell and co are keenly aware that having Johnny around the place is a double-edged sword in terms of succession planning. The upsides are evident each day on the training pitch, but can Carbery and the two Byrnes’ really come into their own when his considerable shadow is still a factor? 

I’d love to pick Eddie Jones’ brain on this one, see what he’d do. His entire methodology around World Cup cycles is fascinating and come what may at Twickenham tomorrow, Eddie knows he has aces up his sleeve when it matters most. Seldom for a home game against Ireland have you felt there are so many England players with so little rugby CV behind them. 

And yet it’s at Twickenham, and that is so important.

Also relevant is the fact that both sides will know the outcome of tonight’s game in Cardiff. France have a bit of a flu problem running through their camp this week and have also lost two players to Covid. Wales may be limited in several respects but they are passionate and a tough nut to crack at home. England know that a victory over Ireland sets up a classic Le Crunch to prevent the French claiming a grand slam. Eddie will relish watching his players either thrive or struggle against the best two sides in the northern hemisphere. It will tell him plenty.

These are key moments in informing his strategy for France in 2023. Joey Carbery may get the start against Scotland in Dublin and presumably start a test in the summer series in New Zealand. Joey needs to be in the crucible, and there are only so many left before we try again to arrive peaked for a World Cup. 

Otherwise, pack plenty of cotton wool.