Ronan O’Gara: Here are the questions - Have France and Ireland the answers?
Gaël Fickou of France is tackled by Robbie Henshaw and Ross Byrne of Ireland during the Guinness Six Nations at the Aviva Stadium last year. Picture: Brendan Moran/Sportsfile
I heard that mentioned on local radio here last week and reckoned I’d have to check the veracity of it for myself. Which event do we pay greatest attention to when assessing the favourites for this year’s renewal: That it’s 11 years since they won it? France’s defeat of the All Blacks last November, a first win in Paris over New Zealand since 1973? Or that, from today, it’s 581 days to the 2023 World Cup which they host? They are all significant in their own way in addressing the French question. After the 40-25 win last November, they took to a lap of honour around the ground, the media reaction the following morning feeding into the sense that France had won a World Cup final. Everyone seemed happy to overlook the fact that New Zealand were mid-cycle, and hence at their weakest. French confidence is like that third glass of wine – it can tip them over from confidence to losing the run of themselves.
That sits easy with some French players, not so well with others. The French psyche is a beautiful, fragile thing. Being favourites for this tournament makes France a great spectator sport this spring, with no one sure if they will beat England and Ireland or Paris or lose in Edinburgh or Cardiff. They will be extremely disappointed if they don’t finish as champions in March.
Lazy analysis says the championship will be decided next weekend in Paris when Ireland visit. Most know that sport doesn’t operate in such linear rhythms. French expectation is based not on arrogance, but on strength in depth — and they have that in most areas. Perhaps there is a bit of guesswork after Willemse, Woki and Le Roux in the second row but most of the other posers involve form, not personnel.
Can Virimi Vakatawa find the form of two years ago, is there a place for the likes of Teddy Thomas. Does Perpignan’s Melvyn Jaminet kick the goals, and if so, what effect does that have on Romain Ntamack? It’s never as interesting a game as a 10 if you are not goalkicking, and we know the Toulouse stand-off is a competitor. There is also the advantage for Fabien Galthie of having the best player in the world by a country mile. They are a different team without Dupont.
Will they break their 11-year famine? They don’t do reliance on one player like Ireland with Sexton and Wales with Alun Wyn Jones. If Ireland win on Week 2 in Paris, that’s a surprise to my mind. I see challenges for France in the away games in Wales and Scotland, but not enough to derail their eyes on the big prize.
I got asked a great question this week: Which Six Nations squad would you most enjoy coaching? I’d fancy a go at France or Ireland. For the first time I can remember — with the possible exception of Dan Leavy and Jacob Stockdale — Andy Farrell has virtually a full hand at his disposal. Stockdale may be unavailable but now everyone’s talking about Baloucoune. Then Lowry’s flavour, and after him Hume, then Carbery and Carty. I’d love to see the stats for when Ringrose, Henshaw, and Aki were all available to an Irish coach at the same time.
This is a championship that’s easier to read from the bottom up, but France and Ireland look to have the most about them and the greatest capacity to overcome adversity. You cannot see Italy causing an upset, but would anyone be surprised to see Scotland beat England at Murrayfield? I’d be more surprised to wake up Sunday after Wales had beaten Ireland in Dublin.
Over the course of the last 12 months, the impact and effect of Paul O’Connell’s coaching in the Irish set-up has been more evident. The speed at which Ireland’s forwards carry the ball and the quality of their running lines are very interesting. People have this presumption O’Connell is a lineout guru. He’s far more than that. He is the forwards coach, which gives him detail and responsibility for 13 players every time Ireland play — eight starters and five off the bench.
The five forward changes Ireland make are not always injury-related. They are impact replacements that determine how you want to finish the game, and on that level of detail, Paulie is exceptional. The line Caelan Doris took against the All Blacks in Dublin in November, which left Codie Taylor for dead — not many in world rugby do that — was perfect timing and a great line. It looked easy but it wasn’t.
If there was a world championship for turning the glass into half-empty, Ireland would be serial winners. No matter how confident you are in yourself, it must be encouraging for Andy Farrell and the management that the fickle fans at home are starting to back the national team again and the way they are doing things.
Farrell has made a few brave calls, not least in the way he has employed and got the best out of Jamison Gibson Park. That must be acknowledged, because Ireland play differently when he is at nine. Snappy at moving the ball, you can see the Super Rugby upbringing in him and the Leinster nine is ideal for the way that Farrell want to play.
There’s no going back now for Ireland. While it’s harder at Test level, it’s easier to express yourself with better players. Be it the debutant Mack Hansen or one of the centurions, the Irish squad knows the expectation now — be accurate, play at a high tempo, with a multi-phase game and operate with a new capacity to offload the ball if possible.
As a young coach trying to find his way, I have nothing but admiration for what Joe Schmidt achieved for Irish rugby. If the changeover from those prescribed — and successful — methods is no bad thing, that doesn’t have to be seen as a criticism of one or the other. Things evolve. There wasn’t an appetite for that level of expression then, whereas this management offers greater flexibility for the players to able to express themselves.
Now there is a framework given to the players, but within that there are a few options in which they can play. Obviously, the more someone was ingrained in the Joe show, the longer it takes to trust instinct. The opposite is also true: Hugo Keenan has spent the greater part of his development under Stuart Lancaster at Leinster and Andy Farrell with Ireland. I don’t want to generalise on the basis of one player, but you can see how adept the Leinster full-back is at processing information and playing the pictures he sees.
We speak of Wales like they are living on old glories. They have won two of the last three Six Nations championships! Their list of potential, and experienced, players unavailable for Saturday is as long as my arm, so abrasive as they will certainly be in Dublin tomorrow, Wayne Pivac’s side will be undoubtedly depowered. Four championships since 2010 means they can never be dismissed, but they are a greater threat to France in Cardiff on the penultimate weekend than they are to Ireland this weekend.
Italy haven’t won a game since 2015, so they operate under a different set of rules in terms of analysis. By putting Scotland in the same conversation as Wales does the Welsh a disservice. I am still slightly puzzled how five Scottish backs played Lions test matches in South Africa last summer and yet our expectation of them this year lurches between beating Italy and frightening the bejaysus out of England and France at Murrayfield. Who knows? They are improving under Gregor Townsend, but if anyone in Scotland is dreaming of them winning the Six Nations, that’s all it is. I know that privately, they will fancy themselves to beat England on Saturday but they’re still a bottom-half team.
No-one can gainsay my love for Keith Earls. And there’s something of an Earlsie in Matthieu Jalibert. The Bordeaux stand-off is a seriously brilliant impact player, can play 10, 12 or 15 and has that Earls acceleration. Fabien Galthie will go with the Toulouse combination of Dupont and Ntamack at half back and then bring in Jalibert on 50 minutes for the knockout blow. The Toulouse pair is a premium package for sure, but against tiring defences, Jalibert is the ideal option to rip a side apart in the last quarter.
Maybe he is looking at a different spot in the backline to get him a starting spot, because the chemistry doesn’t work as well when he starts with Dupont. Those game-changers are critical in breaking the logjam in a tight one.
Ireland’s ace in that regard may still be Joey Carbery. For all his injury woes, if his body is back intact and he got a good prep in in Portugal, he can be a valuable asset for Andy Farrell.
