Ronan O'Gara: The black shirt and the silver fern will always be the benchmark in the game
Sam Whitelock at New Zealand All Blacks Squad Training, UCD Bowl
New Zealand have put up some big numbers in 2021. Sevu Reece’s try in Rome last Saturday was a record-breaking 93rd this calendar year and the first of Asafo Aumua’s pair of tries against Italy took them past the previous best points total of 658 in one year, belonging to South Africa in 2007.
Statistically, that sounds great. But anything approximating to the performance in the first 20 minutes in Rome and Ireland will be out of sight and on their way to a third win over the All Blacks on Saturday in Dublin.
Saturday is an important afternoon for Ian Foster and the management. The folder marked ‘World Cup 2023 planning’ will have its first solid entries after the Aviva and the Stade de France a week later. Set piece and game management will be crucial to New Zealand. I am not sure if they are touring this time next year but either way, test matches in Dublin and Paris will tell the All Blacks a whole lot more than any wins or numbers they have posted to date this year. The success or otherwise of the Northern Tour will be determined over the next two Saturdays.
Can they weather the opposition and their support when they go behind in a test match in Dublin or Paris? There are still question marks around that. With the noise back, even New Zealand’s leaders will get a bit of shock from the degree of intensity they will face tomorrow. The key for them is starting fast, keeping possession and maintaining discipline.
It will be really interesting to see how New Zealand defend. Traditionally they have been ‘soft’ in defence, but I sense there’s been a change in mindset, perhaps driven by players in recent years, which sought to shut down time and space for the opposition. Linespeed can be crazy fast or more measured – ie ‘soft’. The contrast is South Africa, who have very aggressive line speed. It’s all fine and well using the touchline as an extra defender but not so much if the opposition has gained 10-15 metres per phase. The game nowadays makes it hard to get the ball back off teams unless you get it right in the first two phases. The All Blacks would have been a controlled defence and look to punish when they get the ball back – the problem with good teams these days is you could be waiting a long time for that.
Tweaks to their structure are both hints to a new future and corrections on the past. Defending with four up – ten, twelve, thirteen and the openside winger – offers greater reward but it comes with risks on the outside for sure. In soccer parlance, that means how high is the defence prepared to press up and play? Without being overly technical, if a side defends up hard with the four, they are relying on the 15 to mind the cross-kick. There are loads of little subplots like that on Saturday.
By the time you read this I may have been outed as a biased ex-Crusader but if all the indicators that Riche Mo’unga isn’t starting are accurate, that’s the first big talking point right there.
It’s a sign of where my hat has hung of late that I am more au fait with the talents and idiosyncrasies of the All Blacks than I am with the Irish side, so when asked this week to offer individual insights on the visitors to Dublin, my first question was: the person or the rugby player?
In both respects, there is no equivocation on the merits of Richie Mo’unga. I think he is peerless in terms of being the complete ten. I get that Jordie Barrett can ease the kicking pressure with his brother Beauden starting at out-half but if Richie has fallen down the pecking order, I must have missed it, and the reasons for it. The notion that he didn’t ‘take the jersey back’ off Beauden Barrett last Saturday in Rome intrigues me.
Interestingly, three of the four half backs his weekend are Kiwis. TJ Perenara is a formidable nine but if he comes off early for some reason, that is a massive advantage to Ireland because, with respect, Finlay Christie is not in the same league. An interesting call for Aaron Smith to join the squad from down under but he won’t be involved this Saturday so there is a significant gap in class between Perenara and Christie and with test matches decided by small margins these days, that could be one of the deciding influences.
Don’t underestimate too the presence of three Kiwis in the Irish backline. They will know their opposition very well, and neither they, nor their Irish colleagues are saddled with any inferiority complex these days. 2016 and 2018 took care of that. Irish rugby tyros are no longer brought up on a VCR diet of One Hundred and One Great All Black tries.
The right balance for Ireland is that little bit of fear mixed with the confidence derived from the Japan victory. You never cruise into a game against the All Blacks - for optimum performance you need a little bit of fear.
It will still be a surprise if New Zealand don’t get the result. There are good grounds to back an Irish win, but the black shirt and the silver fern will always be the benchmark in the game. Let’s be fair: there’s no Irish player who will wake up Sunday morning and not feel that they have taken a scalp.
I look at Sam Whitelock, the second row. Think the Paul O’Connell of New Zealand rugby. Sam is one of the most impressive people I have met in this sport. A class act, an extremely decent person whose opinion I would always rate, be it life or the set-piece. The Crusader brings that consistently measured leadership and exudes calm amid the chaos. Paulie would have a more commanding persona, but the sum of Whitelock’s various qualities makes for a very powerful cocktail on a rugby field and in a leadership group.
Brodie Retallick is more the enforcer of the second row, but no less impressive for all that. He is the Bakkies Botha to the Springboks’ Victor Matfield. Loose forwards in New Zealand are like daffodils in an Irish springtime: take your pick, you have any number of them. I’d like to mention one - Ethan Blackadder is the son of Todd, a former Crusaders head coach now working in Japan. When I was in Christchurch, Ethan was only training with the Crusaders and getting mini-minutes but what an attitude and a person – the sort that leaves such an indelible mark that you frequently refer to it afterwards in your thinking on best practice. That Crusader group gave me the real love of coaching; when you make a point to them, they are so receptive. Ethan Blackadder was the epitome of that.
There is strength in depth too at hooker, as evidenced by the try scorers in Rome. Codie Taylor is contesting with Dane Coles, but third choice Asafo Aumua, like Coles, got two tries for himself against Italy. Five of the tries came from driving mauls. Interesting. They are a smart rugby team ad they found a weakness, a chink in Italy that was the driving maul. Unlike a lot of other nations, they will stay ruthless and not ger bored - once they find a weakness they continue to go after it.
Saturday is both the climax to their season and the final battles of a long campaign. It’s not that the All Blacks will be drained after USA, Wales and Italy but they have been away from home in camp and in a bubble for a considerable period and whatever way you slice it, their players will see these two games against Ireland and France in the context of a last lap.
And everything gets judged on the last lap. There will be attention for the fact that the next World Cup is in France and the all-singing, all-dancing All Blacks sometimes don’t measure up in the test environment on a wet November day in Dublin or Paris. People at home in New Zealand will be intrigued to see have they developed a pressure game to blend with their special skillsets.
A peak New Zealand will be on offer next summer when Ireland visits for three tests. But in the context of regaining the Webb Ellis Trophy, the next two weeks are the informative ones for Ian Foster and co. This is a proper interrogation of where lies their 2023 planning.
For both Ireland and New Zealand, the performance is imperative. Learnings might be one of the most overused words in the rugby lexicon, but this weekend, no one can gainsay its relevance.
