Donal Lenihan's Lions squad: The Johnny Sexton call will be Warren Gatland's biggest headache

A touring veteran at this stage, Gatland knows better than most that getting your squad selection right remains the most critical element in winning the series

A touring veteran at this stage, Gatland knows better than most that getting your squad selection right remains the most critical element in winning the series

As if to highlight the uncertain nature of the forthcoming British and Irish Lions tour to South Africa, Warren Gatland will unveil his squad on Thursday morning still awaiting final confirmation of where some of those scheduled games will be taking place.

That has never happened before.

For a tour where in-depth pre-planning is seen as an absolute necessity, resulting in the requirement for the head coach to be in place and working exclusively on all things Lions related a year in advance of assembly, this is quite bizarre.

A touring veteran at this stage, Gatland knows better than most that getting your squad selection right, regardless of the additional complications imposed by coronavirus, remains the most critical element in winning the series.

With the unique challenges applying to this tour, not least the prospect that players may be restricted to their hotels for long periods, picking men with the mentality to deal with that will be crucial.

Gatland’s thought process for the tour has not only been altered appreciably by the challenges posed by the coronavirus pandemic but also by the fact that when he started to ink in the names of his touring certainties at the start of the year, with a strong cohort of proven tourists to the forefront of his mind, the core of his squad would have come from the England team that reached the 2019 World Cup final.

As if things weren’t complicated enough with the global pandemic, since that final, Saracens, with a bunch of experienced Lions in Mako Vunipola, Jamie George, Maro Itoje, Owen Farrell and Elliot Daly, along with another in Billy Vunipola who missed out in 2017 due to injury, have fallen from grace due to financial misconduct and their players have suffered accordingly.

Then, an England team who were favourites to win the 2021 Six Nations championship not only finished fifth but also lost to all three Lions partners - Ireland, Wales and Scotland — for the first time since 1976.

Gatland’s plans were thrown out the window with all of the Saracens players, with the exception of Itoje, suffering an alarming loss of form.

To compound matters, they have been trying to play themselves back into contention in the second tier of English club rugby against sides like Doncaster, Ealing Trailfinders and Nottingham.

A year ago Itoje looked like a prime candidate for the Lions captaincy. While he remains a certainty for the test team, his indiscipline and penalty count throughout the Six Nations campaign has impacted his chances of leading the tourists.

With the late changes forced on his coaching team, as outlined last week, Gatland will feel a little exposed walking into that final selection meeting in advance of tomorrow’s squad announcement when dealing with some coaches he doesn’t know very well.

As a starting point, he has asked all the coaches to forward the 36 players they would pick in order to find some consensus before the final cull. In advance of that request, Gatland would have presented the coaches with very specific criteria and a template for selection, not only designed for touring South Africa but to take into account the restricted nature of this tour.

Picking a squad to face South Africa immediately highlights the necessity to select forwards with the physical attributes necessary to match the unrelenting power and bulk this particular Springboks squad possess.

With that in mind, having athletic second rows like Itoje, Tadhg Beirne and Courtney Lawes with the facility to perform on the blind side of the scrum is an additional bonus.

Gatland has always favoured bigger, stronger, explosive players and that is sure to come into play when deciding the marginal calls.

Temperament, the ability to adapt and be flexible from a tactical perspective, along with having the mental fortitude to be able to deal not only with the prospect of not making the test side but to support those who do, will also be taken into consideration.

Of equal importance for this trek are attributes like being a good mixer, a strong character with good leadership skills on what promises to be a very different touring experience, especially with no midweek games over the last three weeks.

That is a long time for some players to be on the periphery.

The final point Gatland will make to his new coaching lieutenants is that age is irrelevant when it comes to selecting a Lions squad. Once the two-month expedition is over, it’s over. That is why Johnny Sexton, who will be 36 in July, is very much in the mix and why Alun Wyn Jones will not only travel but is my choice to lead the squad.

Leinster’s Johnny Sexton. Picture: INPHO/James Crombie

It doesn’t matter one iota to Gatland if a player calls time on their international career at the end of the tour, if they have already retired from the international arena or are currently not making their national team.

It is why the likes of Harlequins scrum-half Danny Care enters the debate for inclusion based on current form.

Picking the first 25 players is straightforward. They stand out to everyone. Gatland has been working on this for some time but will lean on his coaching staff for their input in selecting the key players taking up the last 10 to 12 slots.

The fact that those coaches work hands on with some of those marginal players on a daily basis offers Gatland an additional layer of detail when it comes to filling those final places but, not only will he make the final call, he will not bat an eyelid when it comes to omitting a big name or opting for a bolter.

The success of this tour could well come down to difficult calls on the most experienced players.

Injury doubts surround three quality individuals in Sexton, Lawes and Manu Tuilagi. In addition, in the absence of stand out performers at No 8, Gatland also has to make a call on Billy Vunipola.

His Six Nations form was really poor. He was way off the pace. On the hard grounds and thin air on the high veldt in South Africa that is not a great starting point. At his best, however, he is a game-changer. Unfortunately, it’s been a while since he’s reached that level.

While the squad has quality available in most positions, the options are a bit short, either on form or real depth, at loosehead prop, hooker, No 8, scrum-half and outside centre.

When identifying my own list of certainties for the first test, I was surprised how current form and injury has diluted the options somewhat.

Right now those nailed on for the opening test at the FNB Stadium in Johannesburg on July 24 are practically all forwards in Tadhg Furlong, Ken Owens, Itoje, Alun Wyn Jones, Beirne, Taulipe Faletau and Tom Curry.

Surprisingly, only Robbie Henshaw and Anthony Watson look certain to start behind the scrum. In some respects that’s a good thing as most players will feel a starting test slot or a place on the bench is very much up for grabs in the opening weeks of the tour.

Perhaps the biggest call for Gatland surrounds Sexton. Based on Six Nations form he was not only a certainty to tour, but to be the test No 10. Having to leave the field against Exeter Chiefs in the Heineken Champions Cup quarter-final after 27 minutes and remaining on the sidelines for last weekend’s semi-final against La Rochelle has muddied the waters here.

Picking a Lions squad has long been a favoured pastime of the media and wider rugby public.

While I always found it entertaining to muse over those fantasy selections when immersed in the real process in the inner sanctum, you can be sure they make no impact on the final deliberations, least of all on Gatland.

Without the medical reports necessary to deliberate on the availability of Sexton and Tuilagi, I have selected both in my squad with an alternative if ruled out on injury grounds.

DONAL LENIHAN’S SELECTION

Prop: Tadhg Furlong, Karl Sinckler, Andrew Porter, Mako Vunipola, Joe Marler, Wyn Jones.

Hooker: Ken Owens, Jamie George, Luke Cowan-Dickie.

Second Row: Alun Wyn Jones (C), Maro Itoje, Iain Henderson, James Ryan.

Back row: Tom Curry, Hamish Watson, Tadhg Beirne, Taulipe Faletau, Justin Tipuric, Sam Underhill, Jack Conan.

Scrum-half: Conor Murray, Gareth Davies, Tomas Williams.

Out-half: Dan Bigger, Johnny Sexton/Finn Russell

Midfield: Robbie Henshaw, Owen Farrell, Garry Ringrose, Chris Harris, Manu Tuilagi/Henry Slade

Back three: Anthony Watson, Liam Williams, Stuart Hogg, Louis Rees-Zammit, Josh Adams, Duhan van der Merwe.