Donal Lenihan: It will be difficult to deny desperate Munster in PRO14 final
Joey Carbery: Will want to impress against his former province. Picture: INPHO/Morgan Treacy
Munster’s last Stand-er
Such has been the dominance of today’s finalists in their respective conferences that nobody can question the merits of the two sides. Leinster are chasing an unprecedented four in a row — no other winner has even managed to retain their title — while also seeking to beat Munster for the sixth time in a row, which has never happened before.
Leinster will be doing all in their power to win this evening, but there’s no question their main priority this week is to defeat Toulon in the last 16 of the Heineken Champions Cup at the RDS next Friday night.
On the flip side, it’s safe to say that for Munster, there is no tomorrow.
Right now their Champions Cup game against Toulouse in Thomond Park next Saturday is a complete irrelevance. Without a trophy of any consequence since beating Leinster in the final of what was the Magners League back in 2011, Johann van Graan’s men are desperate for silverware.
A number of this Munster squad, not least captain Peter O’Mahony, Conor Murray, Keith Earls, Billy Holland, and Stephen Archer have been beavering away for a decade without a single medal to show for their incredible efforts.
They are sick of watching Leinster in the winners’ enclosure and must be thinking “it’s now or never”. That is certainly the case for Holland, who retires at the end of the season, as does CJ Stander, who bowed out of the international stage in such spectacular fashion last Saturday.
Munster will full with emotional energy in order to deliver, not only for two of the most popular and dedicated players in the group but also for the province as a whole, for whom a win today would end a decade of pain and hurt having stumbled at the semi-final and final hurdle of domestic and European competition on so many occasions.
It’s unlikely that Leinster will be able to match that hunger. The more important question, however, is whether Munster will be able to match Leinster’s technical excellence up front and finishing ability in the wide channels.
Can Carbery help close the gap
While Munster were highly competitive in all three contests between the sides since last August, Leinster were the more clinical side, kept their composure when under sustained Munster pressure, and showed their finishing class when opportunities presented themselves.
What, if anything, has changed since then to suggest Munster are capable of reversing that losing trend in this final? The most notable alteration comes in the return to action of Joey Carbery after over a year on the sideline due to a horrible sequence of injuries.
On the last occasion the sides met, in Thomond Park last January, Carbery’s progress was such that he warmed up with the matchday squad as the 24th man. The message sent out that evening was clear. It was only a matter of time before his return to arms. A month later that arrived off the bench, away to Cardiff, for a 17-minute appearance, the highlight of which was a touchline conversion to remind everyone of his accuracy off the boot.
If that sent pulses racing, Carbery’s searing break and try-scoring pass when introduced against Connacht the following week, enabling Shane Daly to score under the posts, offered a stark reminder of his lightning pace and prodigious rugby talent.
His only game time since was a very composed 60 minutes against Scarlets before being wrapped up in cotton wool once again. The only reason he wasn’t selected to face Benetton nine days ago was to make sure he is in pristine condition to face his former teammates, back in the RDS, today.
Still only 25 years of age, all of Carbery’s best rugby is ahead of him. Today’s final is a huge game for him personally. Playing flat on the gain line, he has the pace to fix opposition back rowers and keep defences honest.
The biggest beneficiaries of this should be Damien de Allende and Chris Farrell in midfield. With Garry Ringrose out injured, Munster may be able to carve a slight advantage here against the in-form Robbie Henshaw and Rory McLoughlin The great intangible Carbery brings to the equation is his big-match temperament. The only question hanging over that is the lack of game time under his belt going into a contest of this intensity and what impact that is likely to have.
With Johnny Sexton held in reserve on the bench, Carbery comes face to face with one of his immediate rivals for the slot as back-up to Sexton with Ireland. Of all the players on show today, nobody will grab the attention of Andy Farrell more than the Munster playmaker.
He has a huge role to play if Munster are going to break their drought. Hopefully, after so long out of the game, the level of expectation Carbery carries into this contest won’t prove too much of a burden.
Alternatives to established scoring norms
Despite suggestions to the contrary, Leo Cullen has managed to integrate 16 players who saw game time for Ireland in the Six Nations championship into his matchday squad. The only non-international included is Ross Moloney. And he has the luxury of holding two decorated British and Irish Lions, Sexton and Tadhg Furlong, in reserve.
Cullen has selected a massively combative forward unit, despite having James Ryan, Will Connors, and Dan Leavy all ruled out with injury, with a grizzled and highly experienced second row of Wallaby, Scott Fardy, and Devin Toner, sure to generate a surfeit of quality set-piece ball.
The challenge facing Munster is in somehow finding a way to keep Leinster as far away from their twenty two as possible. Leinster’s capacity to score off close in pick and drives and short tap penalties is incredible. Their ability to orchestrate a series of powerful drives with players latching on cleverly and clearing out fringe opposition bodies is almost impossible to defend against.
As a result, despite past criticisms labelled against Munster for kicking too much in this fixture, I don’t envision anything changing on that front with the visitors playing little or no rugby 40m out from their own goal.
In recent games, Munster have looked to play with more width, with a noticeable improvement in the skill set of the forwards and their ability to change the point of attack with quality tip-on passes. The only issue here was, especially in that recent game against Connacht, the attack was far too lateral, making it easier for Connacht to defend. That won’t work against a well-oiled Leinster defence.
The midfield axis of Carbery, De Allende, and Farrell must find a way to manufacture more opportunities for Andrew Conway and Keith Earls, in sizzling form at present, to showcase their finishing prowess.
Both are brilliant at chasing and retrieving high kicks but Hugo Keenan has been a rock under every aerial assault he has faced this season.
Munster’s lineout maul is one of the best in the business so they are more than capable of delivering off that platform. At the very least it will attract a lot of attention on the ground from the Leinster forwards but a couple of clever variations, off the top, in order to keep Leinster guessing would be welcome.
The battle up front will once again decide which set of half backs with be supplied with the ammunition to dictate and manage the outcome of this fascinating final.
The gap between the sides has been narrowing for some time but Leinster have been smarter when it has mattered most.
That could be enough to see them deliver an incredible four in a row of PRO14 titles.
On the other hand, the desire, togetherness, and sheer determination to deliver silverware to honour Stander and Holland before they ride off into the sunset may just tilt the balance in the other direction.
This should be fascinating.
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