Ruby Walsh: Punchestown set to deliver another instalment of Kerry v Cork
COLLISION COURSE: The title battle between Jack Kennedy, left, and Paul Townend will provide a fascinating subplot to the final week of the Irish jumps season. Picture: Healy Racing
The final week of another season and those phrases I heard as a kid have all started to become true for me. It doesn't feel like five years since I went to the Punchestown festival as a jockey, and nor does it feel like 12 months since Fastorslow downed Galopin Des Champs, Bravemansgame, and Envoi Allen in the 2023 Punchestown Gold Cup. Time really does fly, and before we know it, Galway will be upon us, but I believe in the here and now, and this week has the makings of a cracker.I can't wait.
Firstly, it was sad to hear about Shishkin on Sunday evening. He had a freak accident in his stable at Seven Barrows and had to be put to sleep, but what an athlete he was. Unlucky this season, in the King George, but still boasting a remarkable CV, he had a massive engine with a character to match it, and he is a loss to the sport and this week's racing. Sixteen runs over fences and 21 in his career, and one would imagine being in his stable would be the safest place he could be, but accidents happen.
You could see that at the Gaelic Grounds on Sunday when Peter Casey opened up his body and fired in Limerick's second goal as Ronan Maher dived in vain to block his shot. The resulting collision happens on every pitch the country has, but accidents happen, and Peter Casey didn’t get up. Like everyone else, I wish him a speedy recovery, but accidents will always be part of life and looking forward is the only direction you can take.
I might feel like time is flying, but I know the slow time of an injured athlete, and Jack Kennedy has endured more of that at 25 years of age than the entire Limerick panel put together. Yet Tuesday morning, he heads into the final five days of the season seven winners in front of Paul Townend — 122 to Kerry v 115 for Cork. It's a Munster clash played in Kildare, but we all know it will be a while before Cork plays Kerry in Dublin — so this one must do!
There are 28 races for them to ride in, although I can't see Paul partaking in the two over banks which professionals can ride in, and Jack will be suspended on Saturday, so it's a maximum of 26 chances for Paul and 22 for Jack.
The Dingle native leads his Cork rival by seven, and the simple maths tell you that lead would ordinarily be enough, but not here. Paul rode a staggering 11 winners at this meeting in 2023, and while neither will have the full complement of rides, getting close to 11 won't be beyond Paul.
Jack starts on Dancing Jeremy, at 3.05pm, a 25-runner minefield of a handicap hurdle for horses who have run in the qualifiers across the UK and Ireland. It has attracted six UK runners, but I can also see why Paul Townend is not involved because picking one to finish in the four is very hard, let alone which one will win. Still, trainers for courses lead me to believe Clonbury Bridge has an each-way shout for Phillip Dempsey.
That also means when Paul Townend starts in earnest to chase down Jack Kennedy, he will have to do so from a maximum of 25 rides. Winning will require a minimum of eight winners, seven to tie, but that's only if Jack draws a blank from his 20-ish rides. Paul's season strike rate of 39%, or almost two wins to five rides, means 10 is the going rate, but at Punchestown, Paul's strike rate is 54% this season. That will drop with the volume of rides he has this week, but if it falls to match last year, he will still be at 49%.
Those stats suggest Jack will need winners to hold him off, and his strike rate this season is 23%, but that has dipped to 18% in the last few weeks as he seeks every opportunity. He is riding at 18% here at Punchestown, too, but the track figure reflects the yards they ride for. Punchestown is Willie Mullins’ most prolific track, and it is only third on Gordon Elliott's list, behind Down Royal and Navan.
So, what score will win? Giving them both the good luck of lasting the week without a visit to the ambulance room, 126 is the magic number. That’s four for Jack or 11 for Paul. Either way, they have entertained us all winter and will do so for years to come as, like fine wines, they are both only getting better with age.
The funny thing is, looking at the declarations, both could be playing second fiddle to Rachael Blackmore and Henry De Bromhead, who have outstanding chances in all three Grade One races today.
Slade Steel kicks off their afternoon at 3.40pm, in the KPMG Champion Novice Hurdle, and the Supreme winner is difficult to oppose. Firefox and Mystical Power chased him home at Cheltenham, and they have since had a proper ding-dong battle at Aintree, so maybe the fresher Tullyhill could be his biggest opponent.
Captain Guinness made hay in the rain at Cheltenham and landed himself a Champion Chase, so without El Fabiolo or Jonbon, he sets the standard today. Dinoblue was in front of him at the DRF, and Gentleman Du Mee was just behind him at Cheltenham, but with plenty of free-going types in here, the race's set-up will suit Henry De Bromhead’s charge at 5.25pm.
A glorious treble could be on the cards at 6pm when Monty's Star could go off favourite to down Jimmy Mangan's Fairyhouse hero, Spillane’s Tower. A reproduction of his second to Fact To File at Cheltenham will nearly do.
