Ruby Walsh: Rain-softened conditions perfect for L'Homme Presse
L'Homme Presse and Charlie Deutsch en route to victory in the Betfair Exchange Rehearsal Handicap Chase at Newcastle last month. He looks sure to go close in today's King George. Picture: Healy Racing
Time moves on, but some things do not change. I'll be spending St Stephen's Day at Kempton, where Paul Nicholls holds the aces in the King George. Bravesmansgame, Hitman, and Frodon represent Paul in the Christmas feature, which some day will include his name in the title, such has been his success in the race. But today I don't feel safety comes in numbers for my former boss.
The 18 millimeters of rain that fell through Christmas Eve has swung the balance heavily in favour of Venetia Williams' rising star L'Homme Presse. He is a rock-solid jumper with a high cruising speed, and any worries about speed will be negated by the slower-than-usual underfoot conditions. I have felt for quite a while that this lad could easily be the best staying chaser in training in the UK, and shortly after 2.30pm, I think he will plunder the second biggest prize available in his division.
The UK has been a little short on quality in recent years. Still, you can expect to hear plenty of noise about the recovery of sport in the UK after Constitution Hill and himself impress at Kempton. But Rome wasn't built in a day, and two heroes won't constitute a recovery! That said, I did like the look of Rare Edition when he won at Doncaster last month, and he can follow up in Kempton's opener, at 12.10pm, and maybe add more future strength to Britain's resurgence.
On the home front, the top races are split between Limerick at 2.40pm and Leopardstown 20 minutes earlier, just either side of the King George. At 2.20pm in Leopardstown, the Gordon Elliott-trained Fil Dor, who was very impressive when he beat Saint Roi at Navan a month ago, should repel his stable companion Hollow Games.
Down south, however, Willie Mullins will be hoping to spoil Gordon's day. The Faugheen Novice Chase looks like a match between the two big yards, with Gerri Colombe and Kilcruit going head-to-head after impressive chasing debuts.
Gerri Colombe's form is more potent, and he looks a stout stayer, but Kilcruit has my backing. He looked more like the horse he was in bumpers on chasing debut and can build on that to leave a disappointing hurdling career behind.
Paul Townend would appear the man to follow early at Leopardstown, where Parmenion (12.00), Dark Raven (12.35pm), and Lossiemouth (1.10pm) can get his Christmas off to a flyer with bigger bullets to fire later in the week. Down in Limerick, Willie Mullins will have an eye on this morning's non-runners in the hope In Excess gets a chance to run at 12.58pm, and an eye on the rainfall for Belle Metal at 14.08pm. The more the merrier for her.
Tuesday's action at the Foxrock venue is higher in quality, with the Paddy's Rewards Club Chase the highlight in terms of quality even if, a bit like Constitution Hill in the Christmas Hurdle today at Kempton today, Facile Vega, in the backup race, could be the biggest name.
Paul Townend probably faced a tricky choice here. Chacun Pour Soi has achieved a lot more in his career than Blue Lord but has often been vulnerable first time out. However, Paul has sided with him, leaving me lukewarm about suggesting Blue Lord as the likely winner — he tends to get these calls right more often than I did!
Facile Vega faces much more meaningful competition than he did at Fairyhouse. Still, I can't see the result being any different, add Dysart Dynamo and Fact To File to your list, and Willie Mullins looks set for a cracking day two in Dublin.
At Limerick, the feature event is the Lyons’ of Limerick Jaguar Land Rover Novice Hurdle, where the remarkable Jungle Prose will bid to complete a five-timer for Gordon Elliott. She could well do it, but a small part of my mind was taken by Kalanisi Star at Gowran Park in early November. Oliver McKiernan steps him up a full mile in trip at Limerick, but stamina looked like his forte last time out. Largy Hill, who runs at 15.49pm, will relish the Limerick surface too.
The big Christmas handicap chases are also run on Tuesday, the Paddy Power in Leopardstown and the Welsh National at Chepstow. Having watched him last season, The Galloping Bear is a stand-out choice at Chepstow. The final Grand National of the year is a slog and this fellow gallops all day. Ain’t That A Shame went very close to landing the Munster National in October, and his conqueror, The Big Dog, franked the form by winning the Troytown, so Henry De Bromhead’s charge is an obvious but safe choice in the Paddy Power.
One final thought for Tuesday is the engagement of Comfort Zone at Chepstow for the Finale Hurdle. He looked like further or a better gallop, which he will get here, would suit him better, so I'll be keeping an eye on him.
