Ruby Walsh: Baaeed will need to take the brave autumn route to truly join the Greats

He is now at a crossroads, and his next moves will determine how great he can be. If he takes the Leopardstown route to the Arc and succeeds, he can be compared to his father, Sea The Stars

All of the acclaim: Baaeed and Jim Crowley parade in front of the grandstand after he recorded his 10th success in the Juddmonte International Stakes Group 1. Pic: HEALY RACING

On Wednesday, Baaeed scorched the Knavesmire turf at York and delivered the ‘wow’ performance everybody wanted to see, maintaining the perfect career record of 10 wins from 10 starts.

He matched what his sire, Sea The Stars, did by winning the Juddmonte, and stepping up in distance looked to make him even better. But where does Baaeed now rank with the modern greats, they being Frankel and Sea The Stars? I don’t mind. I believe him to be the best of his generation, and that’s all anybody or horse can be, but the debate now rages, so let us flesh it out.

He can’t match what his sire Sea The Stars achieved on the racecourse because he did not contest any of the Classics. Maybe that was a physical thing, or he was slow to mature, but this is Flat racing and being able to mature through your three-year-old season while winning Classics and Group 1s is the acid test. A horse ideally must make the track at two years of age to achieve that. Sea The Stars did, winning two of his three outings. Baaeed didn’t.

As a three-year-old, Sea The Stars went for the Guineas in May at eight furlongs, the Derby in June over 12 furlongs, the Eclipse in July over 10 furlongs, the Juddmonte in August at 10 furlongs, the Irish Champion Stakes in September at 10 furlongs and the Prix de l’Arc in October back up to 12 furlongs. Six Group 1s over six months in three countries and only once on home soil.

Baaeed only began his racing career as a three-year-old. He ran and won six times, but only his last two starts were at the top level because his trainer, William Haggas, correctly allowed him to graduate to the level steadily. So, essentially, he is a year behind his sire.

So, this year, as a four-year-old, he won the Lockinge in May at eight furlongs, the Queen Anne in June, also over eight furlongs, the Sussex in July, again eight furlongs, and the Juddmonte in August at 10 furlongs.

He is now at a crossroads, and his route will determine how great he can be. If, like his sire, he takes the Leopardstown route to the Arc and succeeds in both, he can be compared to his father. Being slow to mature does not diminish his talent but dodging both for a tilt at the British Champion Stakes will stop him from being equated to Sea The Stars — in my opinion! Because that’s what this one-sided debate is: Opinion.

As for Frankel! Fourteen runs and 14 wins. Four as a two-year-old, including a Group 1, five as a three-year-old and five as four-year-old. Never away from home but 10 Group 1s and a combined winning distance of 76 and a quarter lengths.

Adding Baaeed and Sea The Stars gets you 47 and a quarter lengths from their 19 races, but that only shows Frankel’s supremacy over his opposition and the flamboyance with which he was ridden.

Twice he blew apart the royal meeting at Ascot. Never before or since has a horse demolished Guineas opposition as he did, and when he had reached his peak and started to fade, he dug out his final victory.

He has a furlong in range on Baaeed at present, having won twice at seven furlongs, but is two shy of Sea The Stars in that he never tried 12 furlongs and only ever raced in the UK. At least Baaeed went to France last September, but neither endured the travel obligations of Sea The Stars.

What you have is three brilliant horses of three different generations, so the numbers people will start pointing to official ratings to settle all debates. Frankel held an official rating of 140, Sea The Stars 135, and Baaeed 135.

Simple, I suppose, but only if you believe them to be the accurate barometer of a horse’s ability. They have never done that for me because applying maths to talent is subjective, and you need a solid starting point.

The idea of ratings comes from handicapping and the theory of allotting the best horse the highest figure and taking a number away to equate to a pound in weight to create a level playing field. If you have it right, the theory should mean all horses in a handicap pass the finish in a line, but I have never seen that happen. You get the correct answer when mathematical equations are done correctly, but horse races never add up, as Wednesday’s Juddmonte shows.

Baaeed went to post on Wednesday rated 128 and beat Mishriff, rated 124, by six and a half lengths. The pre-race figures suggested Baaeed would win by two and a quarter lengths — one length for every 1.75 pounds between their ratings. Based on what Baaeed had previously beaten at eight furlongs, the numbers only permitted him to have a rating of 128; they don’t allow for improvement or different distances, which can enhance a horse’s performance.

However, it’s easy to argue Mishriff ran below his 124 because he should have beaten Sir Busker, who finished third, by a little over five lengths, yet only managed to do so by two and a half. So, did Sir Busker improve at six years of age and overperform to what the ratings suggested he would? I doubt it. He was lowest rated yet finished in front of two of his generation who were higher than him with no weight concession.

Strictly through Mishriff, Baaeed should now be 139, up 11 for what he did Wednesday, but through Sir Busker he should only be 131. His new rating suggests the difference was split.

Simply put, these maths are only opinions, and which of these horses is or was the best will always be an opinion. Horse racing will never be as definitive as athletics, but for all his brilliance, Baaeed will, in my mind, need to take the brave autumn route to get up to the grandeur of Frankel or Sea The Stars.

But the possibility that he could join the other two greats is still there.