Christy O'Connor: The numbers show Munster hurling stretching away from Leinster
Cork’s Ciaran Joyce breaks away from Kilkenny’s Walter Walsh in the Allianz Hurling League Division 1 Semi-Final at Pairc Ui Chaoimh. INPHO/Ken Sutton
It’s never been in Ger Loughnane’s nature to hold back and not to tell it as it is. In his newspaper column on Monday, Loughnane described last Saturday’s Galway-Wexford clash like “a junior game compared to the two matches in Munster”.
The comments would have unquestionably caused a stir for anyone willing to take offence in both camps, and both counties. It was an isolated match. It’s still only mid-April. The weather was poor. The pitch was soft. The end-game was still laced with high-wire drama.
Loughnane isn’t always right, but he’s still a brilliant mind who has a solid history in reading form-lines and providing an accurate gauge around how teams are going, and how competitions are likely to pan out.
On the Monday after the league quarter-finals in March 2019, Loughnane made a number of bold predictions, most of which came to pass in the 2019 championship.
“My belief is that this year’s Leinster championship will be way ahead of its Munster counterpart,” wrote Loughnane. “To me, Leinster will be the province to watch because it will be ultra-competitive. I can see one-sided games in Munster, and dead rubbers as it peters out at the end.”
Two months before the round-robin began, Loughnane nailed it. Leinster was a sell-out. Munster was a washout. In eight of the 11 games played in Munster three years ago, the margin of victory was six points or more.
Six of those matches were effectively routs. Waterford lost three matches by an aggregate margin of 51 points. Clare lost two matches by an aggregate of 31 points.
Leinster was at the complete opposite end of the scale. There were three draws while Galway beat Kilkenny by one point in Round 4 to set up the most unimaginable round of intrigue ever witnessed before in GAA history.
When Galway and Dublin and Kilkenny and Wexford met in the last round in mid-June, supporters from three of the four counties were subjected to the most oppressive and nerve-wracking tension ever witnessed before in a handful of minutes after a GAA match.
After Lee Chin nailed an equalising free three minutes into injury time in Wexford Park, players, managers and supporters were frantically seeking results and clarification, uncertain whether they would be in a Leinster final, a preliminary All-Ireland quarter-final or simply redundant for the rest of the summer. Galway soon realised that they were the first team to be dumped out of the championship on scoring difference.
Two weeks later, Wexford won an epic Leinster final against Kilkenny to secure a first provincial title since 2004. On the same afternoon in the Gaelic Grounds, Limerick hammered Tipperary in the Munster final.
The 2020 provincial championships were average, with both campaigns oscillating between ordinary and decent matches, which was understandable during a winter championship, and even more so when some teams were starting back later than others due to prolonged club championships.
The 2020 Munster final between Limerick and Waterford was a really intense game but it was a slugfest. The previous evening, Kilkenny won a much more entertaining Leinster final against Galway.
Last year’s Munster Championship was better but it wasn't electric. The Munster final was memorable for the manner of Limerick’s incredible comeback but none of the other games really caught fire. In Leinster, the Kilkenny-Wexford semi-final was a brilliant match only decided after extra-time, but the rest of the fare was average at best, especially in terms of quality and entertainment.
Even though it’s all one hurling community, there will always be some degree of rivalry between the provinces. For most of the last two decades, Leinster held the upper hand, with the province (including Galway because of their presence there) bagging 13 of the 20 All-Irelands on offer between 1998 and 2017.
Kilkenny’s dominance between 2000-2015 was the dominant theme of that superiority because they won 11 of those 13 titles. Yet Munster have completely turned the tables in the last four years.
A Munster team has won the last four All-Irelands, which is the first time that has happened in over six decades - between 1948 and 1954, Cork, Tipperary and Waterford shared seven All-Irelands between them.
It was straight knockout back then but two Munster teams have contested the last two All-Ireland finals, which is the first time that has happened in history. So is the overall standard higher in Munster now?
The numbers in the last few years add to that perception at the moment. In 2017, 2018 and 2021, three of the four All-Ireland semi-finalists in those seasons were Munster teams.
Wexford were the only unbeaten team in Division 1 this year during the regular campaign but Waterford hammered them in the semi-final to set up another all-Munster national final.
The huge volume of draws and close matches have reflected the tight margins between the teams in Leinster in recent years. Yet their numbers haven’t been as impressive when their sides have come up against their provincial counterparts.
Wexford should have beaten Tipperary in the 2019 All-Ireland semi-final, but still haven’t taken down a Munster team in championship in their last six meetings, stretching back to 2016. Dublin haven’t beaten a Munster team since 2015, having lost their last five championship games against sides from the southern province.
Kilkenny and Galway’s record is better but it’s still nowhere near where both counties would like it to be. Kilkenny have only won three of their last nine championship matches against sides from Munster since 2016.
In the same time span, Galway have won five of their last nine games against Munster sides, but they’ve won just one of their last four, which was a narrow All-Ireland quarter-final win against Tipperary in 2020.
Munster’s current grip is also a natural corollary of their dominance at U-21 and U-20, which is always a more accurate gauge than minor - Munster teams have won the last ten All-Ireland U-21/20 titles. Galway may have dominated at minor level but their last U-21 title was in 2011.
Drilling deeper into those numbers doesn’t make good reading for Leinster. Two Munster sides (Cork and Tipperary) met in successive finals (U-21 and U-20) in 2018 and 2019. Antrim beat Wexford in the 2013 All-Ireland U-21 semi-final and Clare annihilated Antrim in the final by 22 points.
When Munster teams have played Leinster and Galway sides in seven of the last ten All-Ireland U-21/20 finals, the average margin of victory has been eight points. Some of those finals were annihilations; Limerick hammered Wexford in the 2015 decider by 16 points; Waterford obliterated Galway by the same margin a year later.
Most of those players now backbone the current Limerick and Waterford sides. The Dublin-Wexford game tomorrow evening in Wexford Park is a massive game in Leinster, but it still pales in comparison with the Limerick-Waterford match in the Gaelic Grounds.
There are some huge games to come in Leinster over the next four weeks, but none can command anything near that level of attraction. Galway-Kilkenny is an exciting and intriguing prospect next weekend but the dominant theme and subplot will be largely defined by Henry Shefflin coming up against Brian Cody than it being billed as an All-Ireland heavyweight clash like it would have been five or six years ago.
There is still a lot of hurling to be played yet in this round-robin. A couple of results can skew the tone and temper of this competition, like it did in Munster in 2019.
Yet the numbers are still completely stacked in the southern province’s favour. And whether Leinster like it or not, they can’t deny that Munster has become the main show in town.
