Paul Rouse: It’s late in the year but story of the season just getting started
Mayo’s Mark Moran is tackled by Galway’s Gary O’Donnell in their Allianz League clash at Tuam Stadium last weekend. Galway lacked a basic workrate and commitment to tackling that was a little bit remarkable to witness. On a positive note, they cannot be so bad again and they got a perfect look at what can go wrong, writes our columnist. Picture: Bryan Keane/Inpho
Does the last round of matches in the National Football League really matter? Or have all minds already turned to the championship which begins in a week’s time?
The answer is a layered one: it depends on the team, and depends on the division.
Let’s start with Division One. The match between Kerry and Donegal will decide who wins Division One. They were the two most impressive teams in the League last weekend. Both had narrow enough victories, but they were victories that were much more convincing than the scorelines suggested.
The equation is simple: if Kerry beat Donegal they will win the League. They can attack the game with the certainty that it is an excellent dress rehearsal for meeting Cork in the Munster Championship in November.
The expectation is that they will win and they probably will. But this is partly related to the fact that Donegal are due to play Tyrone in the first round of the Ulster Senior Football Championship in a week’s time.
That game carries a significance for Donegal that far outweighs a league match against Kerry. Donegal were better than Tyrone in their league match last weekend, but the gap was not so great that it cannot be closed.
Elsewhere in Division One there are two genuinely fascinating matches. The first will see Mayo and Tyrone meet in Castlebar. Mayo need to win to avoid relegation. They were brilliant last weekend against Galway, with a redesigned team.
The introduction of a host of new and young players suggests a new dawn, with older established players sprinkled through the team. Can they back that up this weekend?
The reality is, though, that Galway were exceptionally accommodating hosts to Mayo last weekend and there is no way the Tyrone will be anyway near as pliant.
For their part, the introduction of Conor McKenna – back from playing Australian Rules – and the fact that they never let Donegal from their sight, suggests that Tyrone have prospects. There is no evidence yet that they have improved from last year, however.
Ultimately, this is a match that will offer a vivid insight into whether either county can hold any meaningful aspirations of championship success. Lose this one and it is difficult to make a credible case for any late season glory.
The second fascinating match will see Dublin travel to Galway. Galway were abject against Mayo, but there are mitigating factors. They were hugely disrupted in the run in to the game. And then they lost Damien Comer and Johnny Duane within the first ten minutes. On top of that, everything that Mayo tried came off.
Against that, Galway lacked a basic work-rate and commitment to tackling that was a little bit remarkable to witness. The reaction of their manager Padraic Joyce afterwards was revealing – it was clearly outraged.
On a positive note, they cannot be so bad again and they got a perfect look at what can go wrong. It could ultimately prove to be an extremely cheap lesson. They must start to fix things this weekend against Dublin.
For their part, Dublin beat Meath in a way that never suggested they might lose, but were nonetheless unconvincing. The idea of an extended panel of undimmed brilliance is dead.
They remain the team to beat when it comes to the championship, but they no longer carry the aura of invincibility. That sounds like a strange thing for a team who have just completed a record five-in-a-row, but the loss of Jim Gavin as manager and Jack McCaffrey as a proven game-breaker is huge. The great strength of Dublin over the past five years has been the depth of their panel.
There is no substantial evidence that the recent additions are now ready to adequately replace those who have departed. It may be that time provides the evidence – and maybe that time will start against Galway. Again, whatever about Dublin – who have a long run into the championship – Galway need to demonstrate on Sunday a basic level of resolve that suggests they can be serious championship contenders.
In the final game in Division One, Meath play Monaghan. Meath are relegated already but Monaghan need to win to survive. Meath have improved and five losses on the bounce tell a tale of a team not quite good enough yet.
But the losses have been narrow and they have improved. They need a win and if it came again Monaghan it would be no enormous surprise. Monaghan should win, however. They were reasonable against Kerry and if they rediscover the ferocity of previous campaigns they will most likely avoid relegation.
Across the rest of the divisions there are fascinating matches to take place. None have any enormous relevance to overall All-Ireland championship honours. It is difficult to imagine that the ultimate winner of the All-Ireland senior football championship will not come from Division One.
That being said there are matches for teams this weekend that are more vital than any championship match that is coming in the late autumn or winter.
Take Division Four, for example. Limerick, Wexford, Wicklow and Antrim all retain legitimate ambitions of being promoted to Division Three. For each of those counties, the success of the season depends on this weekend.
Antrim were annihilated by Wicklow last weekend when they were expected to win and essentially secure promotion. It is now out of their own hands. Limerick, too, had a really disappointing defeat to Wexford.
But this weekend brings new hope to all. The fact that Waterford have conceded a walkover to Antrim really complicates things. From a purely footballing point of view, it is an unsatisfactory situation.
The successful counties will join a Division Three that will see Cork and most likely Down promoted, while Louth and the loser of the match between Leitrim and Tipperary will be relegated.
Tipperary are strong favourites for that match; they are not a patch on the team that reached an All-Ireland semi-final but have too much to be relegated.
All of which leaves Division Two. Fermanagh have been relegated already. Laois are in the second relegation slot.
But the plum prize of promotion to Division One remains all to play for. Cavan blew up last weekend in losing to Kildare. Roscommon, by contrast, underlined their capacities by beating Armagh.
The meeting of Cavan and Roscommon this weekend promises to be an enthralling one. This is winner-takes-all – and another match compromised by Covid.
The other upshot in a fascinating series of matches is that Armagh must beat Clare – who themselves must win to be sure of avoiding relegation. This is a match which is exceptionally difficult to call.
Westmeath are the dark horses – but must beat Kildare to stay in the hunt.
The momentum which a successful weekend would give to all successful teams as they enter the championship is not to be dismissed. But for most teams the league is crucial in its own terms.
It means something to look forward to after Christmas, regardless of what happens over the next two months.
The reality of the championship is simple. Only a handful of teams can truly claim to be championship contenders. They are tiered in three ways now: Dublin and Kerry; Donegal; Galway, Mayo and Tyrone. It’s late in the year but early in the season. All will soon become much clearer.
