Irish Examiner view: Heed the warnings and prepare for war
Pablo Picasso painted 'Guernica' as a response to Nazi bombardment of the town in 1937. Many aspects of geopolitics today echo the build-up to world war in the 1930s.
In a week of historic anniversaries, summits, treaties, and warfare, it is impossible to look upon the world of early summer 2025 with any sense of equanimity.
Surreal images crowd in. devoting a special edition to Ukrainian women displaying their war injuries. China’s president Xi Jinping in the front row of the Red Square victory parade wearing the same military colours as the man next to him, Vladimir Putin. Gruelling pictures of starving people holding out empty food bowls in Gaza refugee camps. Pakistan’s military celebrating the shooting down of India’s French-made Rafale jets by Chinese-supplied J-10Cs.
The Second World War was preceded by a succession of apparently unconnected conflicts — in Manchuria, in Spain, in Ethiopia — in which new technologies and tactics were deployed.
For dive bombers and Guernica, we can substitute drones. For fascist militaristic dictatorships such as Germany, Italy, and Japan of the 1930s we can contemplate North Korea, Iran, and Russia.
Then, as now, confidence in international rules-based systems has plummeted. Financial uncertainty is rife.
No wonder, therefore, that, 80 years after victory in Europe, between 40% and 55% of our main neighbours believe that another global conflict is “very” or “fairly” likely within 10 years.
The majority of people polled in Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Britain, and the US expect that nuclear weapons will be used and that death tolls will be higher than in 1939-45.
These findings go a long way to explain the fatalism and nihilism which are such components of the spirit of our times.
Many respondents attributed the decades of peace since 1945 to the establishment of the Nato mutual defence organisation, to which Ireland is not a party, and the EU, to which we emphatically belong.
It is a matter of jarring tragedy that just as international tensions are reaching a peak, we are discussing a different type of war involving trade and tariffs. It is a fight in which Ireland is intimately involved.
Not only are our finance minister, Paschal Donohoe, and our EU Commissioner, Michael McGrath, among the most lucid economic thinkers Europe has to offer but we will assume the rotating presidency of the European Council next year when the impact of the Trump decisions will start to bite.
The US president heads to Gaza next week in a visit which is likely to churn the stomachs of many. He does so having failed to achieve anything resembling a breakthrough on Ukraine despite a negotiating approach which seems to rely heavily on soft-soaping the aggressor.
Speaking from the stands in front of the Kremlin yesterday, Vladimir Putin said Russia had been engaging in “a righteous fight”.
It is very possible to criticise the political leaders of the European democracies but they need the support of citizens if they are to rise to the challenges posed by those we once thought were allies, and those that we can identify clearly as enemies.
In , the poet AE Housman pessimistically warned of a future war: “Far I hear the steady drummer, Drumming like a noise in dreams.”
That sound is becoming louder. All those who love peace must recognise what it is. And prepare accordingly.
All those Irish employers lamenting the worst skills shortages in 20 years should take comfort from an example which emphasises the importance of retraining.
Research among hundreds of companies concluded that 83% of firms are finding it difficult to recruit the right candidates. Of course, not everyone can be a housing tsar, but the pinch is particularly felt in skilled IT categories such as software engineering, analysis, and development. There are also serious gaps in healthcare, construction, tourism, and catering. And have you tried to get a plumber recently?
The gaps in our armed forces — some 2,000 light of establishment — have been well catalogued, without any great signs of progress, and we know also that the roster for our policing consistently falls short of government targets.
When bosses contemplate their increasing difficulties filling specialist positions, they could do worse than contemplate the success of Wilson of An Garda Síochána.
Granted that Wilson has four legs rather than two, but these are an advantage in the chosen line of work. As is a keen sense of smell.
Wilson is the rescue pup, a springer spaniel, who left the dog pound to pound the beat for a crime-fighting career with the gardaí. During one of his first deployments, he uncovered a cache of cocaine, but he fulfils that modern requirement of multi-tasking. He can also sniff out heroin, ecstasy, cannabis, speed, firearms and their component parts, bullets, and firearms residue on clothing. And cash. He can find that as well.
Wilson is available 24/7. His handler says he is “a real dinger” who is “just mad to go to work every day”. As a symbol of what Leo Varadkar once described as “people who get up early in the morning” and in an era where it is difficult to justifiably say “I can’t get a job”, he is a useful mascot.
There has been much debate, including on these pages, about the chronic shortages of skilled and expert staff within the HSE, with damaging, or life-threatening, consequences.
The ability to train, and retain, sufficient numbers of expert staff is an acute problem in the medical world, where nations are often competing against each other to fill vacancies in their health systems. Meeting that challenge, which will only accelerate as populations age, requires constant focus and leadership, and meaningful action.
But this week also underlined another issue, just as critical, and one which is even more difficult to resolve because it relies on increasing our collective sense of public duty at a time when many examples point to a wider self-entitlement and selfishness.
We have written before about the fundamental role played in our society by volunteers who step forward regularly, often unsung and unappreciated, to help fellow citizens. Without them, the mortar which holds many of our essential services together is starting to crack and fail.
The scale of that concern was emphasised when the Society of St Vincent de Paul, Ireland’s largest charitable organisation, established 181 years ago, provided figures for its South-West region, which includes Cork City.
Its membership for the area was decimated during the covid pandemic and must now at least double simply to maintain existing levels of support.
Since 2021, numbers have fallen by 240, throwing a heavy burden on the remaining 270, particularly with the crucial responsibilities for home visits. Dedicated volunteers are now reporting burnout, a common enough complaint from professional social workers but one which is increasingly exhibited from people giving their time and services for free.
Because of the sensitive nature of the work, garda vetting and references are essential and full home visitation training must be provided. Ideally, volunteers should have access to their own private transport.
But if these demands seem too rigorous, there are other tasks which can be undertaken such as administration, data input, and accounts management.
What is undisputed, and could be dispiriting in a society which seeks improvement in conditions for the weak and vulnerable, is that the pleas for help keep coming in.
Last year, in Cork, the charity responded to 9,400 requests and provided support to 19,674 families, while 18,660 hampers and meals were delivered, fuel and energy assistance provided, and it assisted nearly 7,000 students across primary, secondary, and third-level education.
Other statistics this week show the importance of a coherent strategy delivered through enlightened networks when it was reported that Ireland’s suicide rate has fallen by a quarter over the past 20 years.
The impact of the Samaritans, another great volunteer army, in aiding this progress cannot be understated. Last year was the 10th anniversary of its free-to-call 24/7 help-line, a major milestone in its efforts to help people in distress and despair.
More than 5m calls were answered in the first decade and approximately 700,000 hours of support provided. Volunteers spent, on average, nearly 23 minutes on the phone with each caller who needed emotional support. The most common concerns were mental health or illness, loneliness or isolation, family issues, and relationship problems.
It’s impossible to minimise the impact on us if these organisations, and many others, were not stepping up to the plate daily. Without them, society would either crumble or the tax take from citizens would need to become greatly higher.
However, there are self-interested reasons for helping others which are worthy of stronger promulgation. Research has found that “prosocial behaviours” protect people from harbouring negative thoughts about their own lives.
It is important to stay connected. In the overstretched 2020s, doing good is good for you.
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