Irish Examiner view: Strongman Erdogan is vulnerable

Turkish general election

Erdogan has ruled Turkey as prime minister and president for 20 years. Picture: Chris J Ratcliffe/PA Wire

After dramatically falling ill on live television last week, the ‘strongman’ image of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has slipped at a vital time before next week’s general election there.

Erdogan has ruled Turkey as prime minister and president for 20 years now, but is about to face his toughest ever electoral challenge, with the six-party coalition opposing him seeing this as its best chance to oust a man it says is a threat to democracy in the country.

The opposition, led by Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has been polling strongly in recent months and is confident this is its best-ever chance to oust a man seen as an increasingly authoritarian ruler.

There is a feeling in the country that this election presents the voters with a grim choice: Either elect Erdogan again and entrench one-man rule in the country or vote for an opposition promising an overhaul of the presidency and a return to a parliamentary democracy. 

The concern of many among Turkey’s 85m population is that while the opposition might gain a majority in parliament, Erdogan could win a tight presidential race and negate any gains they have made by further concentrating power around the presidency.

Internecine bickering within the opposition coalition has broken out in recent weeks and months, creating concern in people’s minds that the in-fighting will work in Erdogan’s favour. 

But, with many Turks of the belief that the country’s system of democracy is on the line in this election, a huge amount is at stake.

One wildcard the opposition hope will come into play is the influence of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), a pro-Kurdish party. 

Erdogan has jailed the party leader, Selahattin Demirtas, on spurious terrorism charges and has tried to have the party banned. 

In past elections it has commanded up to 10% of the vote and that could be crucial this time.

The HDP has thrown its support behind the opposition alliance and that may just be enough to see an end to Erdogan’s rule.