Viewed from the island of Ireland, there has always been an exceptional level of interest in the political fortunes of Nicola Sturgeon.
It is easy to understand why: Leader of a nationalist party seemingly beyond challenge in a devolved government; a doughty and combative political campaigner; symbolic head of a country which was decisively in the remain camp over Brexit; the natural heirs, as the SNP likes to present itself, to the theories and traditions of the Scottish Enlightenment.
If Edinburgh could lead a successful charge against the perfidies of Westminster, strategists and tacticians liked to muse, then what could our own North not accomplish given goodwill, and good fortunes with the timelines of history?
If Scotland could achieve a workable independence, then why not a Northern Ireland breakaway, and a long-awaited reunion with the Republic?
When Ms Sturgeon resigned on February 15, just over seven weeks ago, it was in the wake of the departure of another woman leader that people found charismatic — Jacinda Ardern of New Zealand — and she quoted some vaguely similar reasons.
Where Ms Arden said she “no longer had enough in the tank” and wanted to spend more time with her family, Scotland’s longest-serving first minister said she “instinctively” knew “when the time is right to make way for someone else”. She said:
There is virtually no privacy. Even ordinary stuff that most people take for granted, like going for a coffee with friends or for a walk on your own becomes very difficult.
Most political leaders like to point to their “legacy”. But in the case of the Scottish Nationalists that is now chaos.
Yesterday the party’s auditors resigned. Legitimate questions have been raised about the timing of the arrest of Peter Murrell, Ms Sturgeon’s husband, and the police searches of their home and party offices as part of an ongoing financial investigation.
Mr Murrell, who has been released without charge, stepped down as the SNP’s chief executive three weeks ago after an argument over the size of party membership.
A previously quoted figure of 102,000 was reduced, under challenge, to 72,000 and Mr Murrell took responsibility for the inaccuracy.
Why the police left their operation until after the leadership election which saw continuity candidate Humza Yousaf narrowly defeat the evangelical Kate Forbes is an unanswered question. But it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that the poll may be re-run, and it is far from guaranteed that the result will be the same.
There must be a general election in the UK by January 2025, with the odds currently favouring a campaign during early autumn next year.
The Scottish Nationalists currently hold 45 seats at Westminster and their performance will be important to Labour, who used to be the dominant power north of the border.
Ms Sturgeon had declared that she intended to use the next election as a cipher for a new independence vote. However, it has now become hugely more complex.
The chances of Holyrood acting as a bellwether for the North have receded this week. The invitation to the step dance may have to wait.
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