Irish Examiner View: Putin's rallying call offers little hope

Putin’s latest speech on the war in Ukraine can be dismissed as mere sabre-rattling, an attempt to rally his fellow countrymen to the national flag

Putin’s advice to his listeners in Russia, to prepare for a long war, was another gloomy takeaway from the speech. Picture: Gavriil Grigorov/Kremlin Pool/AP.

In his latest speech on the war in Ukraine, Russian president Vladimir Putin flatly contradicted the accepted narrative about the conflict, stating that, in fact, it was started by the West a year ago.

The fact that it was the Russians themselves who invaded Ukraine means Putin’s speech and its outlandish claims can be dismissed as mere sabre-rattling, an attempt to rally his fellow countrymen to the national flag.

Putin’s dismissal of the problems faced by Russian oligarchs around the world in comparison with the travails of ordinary Russians due to the war in Ukraine, added to that sense of an attempt to bolster national morale.

However, the substance in Putin’s speech yesterday comes freighted with global significance. 

The Russian leader said his nation was forced to state that it was suspending its participation in the strategic offensive arms treaty — namely New Start, the last nuclear arms control strategy agreed between Russia and the US.

This is not quite as ominous as it sounds on one level, as many observers feel Russia has essentially already withdrawn from the treaty anyway. It does not co-operate with inspections of nuclear sites, nor does it participate in bilateral discussions of nuclear issues.

Nevertheless, it is an escalation of an already tense situation,  and marks a particular low in US-Russian relations — there has been some form of agreed nuclear weapons control between the two superpowers since the early 1970s. 

Putin’s advice to his listeners in Russia, to prepare for a long war, was another gloomy takeaway from the speech.

Much attention will now turn to China’s view of the conflict in Ukraine, and the role it sees for itself in resolving the conflict. US-China relations are frosty at present,  after Chinese balloons in US airspace were shot down by American aircraft, while Chinese plans for peace between Ukraine and Russia must also, according to the country’s senior diplomat, square a particularly difficult circle.

In that scenario, a Chinese peace plan would emphasise the need to uphold the principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the UN Charter — while simultaneously recognising Russia’s legitimate security interests.

Reconciling those objectives would be a true test of diplomatic skills, but a peaceful outcome would make the effort worthwhile.