Irish Examiner View: Power grid gets first winter test

Unseasonably warm weather in October and last month, has helped persuade households and businesses to keep the thermostat turned down. File Picture

There is an old, and distinctly off-colour joke about watching out for yellow snow, but that does not distract from the importance of the colour-coded warning system deployed by Met Éireann in spells of cold weather. 

With the alerts being forecast to alternate between yellow (‘be aware’) and orange (‘be prepared’) in the next few days, and the cancellation and delays of about 200 flights in and out of Dublin over the weekend, this 50th week of the year will also see the first major test of the reliability of our energy supplies as demand increases upon entering the peak midwinter months.

European countries have been practising contingency plans and bracing for blackouts (which could also bring down parts of the mobile phone network) since October. Tánaiste Leo Varadkar acknowledges the risk of electricity blackouts for households and businesses this winter cannot be ruled out due to “very tight” supplies. 

A New York Times headline proclaimed: ‘Advice for Europeans: Bundle Up and Get Ready for Outages.’ The French government, particularly anxious as half of its nuclear power plants have been offline for repair, has planned for rolling cuts, while Britain’s national grid has warned of possible blackouts from 4pm to 7pm if gas used to generate electricity runs short.

To some extent, the regular warnings, allied to unseasonably warm weather in October and last month, has helped persuade households and businesses to keep the thermostat turned down and allowed reserves to build up. However, with the arrival of the Arctic blasts from Greenland, those measures will now be put through their paces. 

Among the hungriest users in Ireland are the ever-increasing numbers of data centres which are viewed as fundamental to our economic future. Ireland has 70, with eight being built, and applications for another 30 in the planning framework.

It is suggested that they have been given one hour’s notice to reduce their energy usage by up to 50% at times of high demand or risk having their power cut off under new ‘load shedding’ plans drawn together by EirGrid, the Commission for Regulation of Utilities, the ESB, and Ireland’s major tech companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google. 

The centres will be expected to switch to supply from their own onsite diesel generators to prevent the system from toppling over.

The worst case for Ireland in midwinter is high demand coupled with several low-wind days which will prevent renewable power topping up our supply. 

The growing contribution from wind turbines and solar power is seen as vital if Europe is to break its reliance on Russian president Vladimir Putin’s fossil fuels, though European electricity industry body Eurelectric has warned that investment in the grid needs to rise by 50% to 70% to reach €34bn to €39bn a year by 2030 to cope with the acceleration of new forms of capacity.

That is a problem for the future. For now, we must overcome the convictions of a previous tsar, Nicholas I, during an earlier conflict in Crimea: “Russia has two generals in whom she can confide — generals Janvier and Février.” 

It is the job of all consumers, and the power supply companies, to ensure these months prove to be unreliable allies for the Kremlin.