Irish Examiner view: Potential election could be a nightmare before Christmas for the DUP

If Micheál Martin's appeal to Jeffrey Donaldson to help restore the Executive falls on deaf ears, the electorate in the North may provide a more compelling voice

DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson MP with party colleagues Gavin Robinson MP and Emma Little-Pengelly MLA after meeting Taoiseach Micheál Martin in Belfast last week. Picture: Liam McBurney/PA

All credit to Micheál Martin for trying to appeal to rational minds and suggesting that the Democratic Unionist Party helps to restore the Northern Ireland executive ahead of this Friday’s deadline which would trigger fresh, and unwanted, elections during the run-in to Christmas.

On past form, this could be another example of trying to whistle down the wind, with DUP obstinacy likely to prevail. But circumstances are anything but normal, with Jeffrey Donaldson’s party attempting to guess the outcome of the febrile political atmosphere at Westminster and calculate the outcome which most favours them.

They will likely be dealing with the emollient Rishi Sunak, who will want to avoid more confrontation with Europe over the protocol. Mr Sunak is left with one rival for the hotseat, staunch Brexiteer Penny Mordaunt, following Boris Johnson’s withdrawal from a race he was never really part of to begin with.

By a delicious coincidence of timing, the deadline for calling new Assembly elections falls on the same day that the Tories have set to select their latest leader and British prime minister. Secretary of state Chris Heaton-Harris said he will call an election “if we do not get a reformed executive by one minute past midnight on the 28th of October”.

Whether Mr Heaton-Harris is able to do anything on Friday is a moot point. If an election is called, the date pencilled in the diary is Thursday, December 15.

Electorates can often punish politicians who drag them into unnecessary polls, particularly in midwinter, although the Tories recorded their landslide victory over Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour in December three years ago. This time, the circumstances may not be propitious for unionists if the public gets a chance to give a verdict on seven months of inactivity since they were last asked the question. This deadlock may break, but it could be a nightmare before Christmas for Mr Donaldson and his allies if there is a return to the hustings.