Irish Examiner view: Which way does wind blow for the North?

Assembly elections unlikely to have much impact on Irish unity discussions

Michelle O'Neill takes a selfie with two schoolgirls while canvassing ahead of the Northern Ireland Assembly elections at Kennedy shopping centre in Belfast. Picture: Charles McQuillan/Getty Images

To what extent does the Northern Ireland Protocol impact the views of voters in the North, and does Sinn Féin have a historic opportunity to become the largest ruling party, one that is committed to reuniting the country?

For us in the Republic, the second question is more interesting than the first. And the answer to the first, as we will find out after tomorrow is probably, “not much”.

It is a common mistake to read too much into what happens in essentially local elections. They may provide a useful bellwether or a valuable catalyst for protest. But the dominant issue for most people is the cost of living and associated issues such as health provision. Those, overwhelmingly, are laid at the feet of national politicians.

It will be national politicians who decide the validity of any “border poll”, something which will, anyway, be resisted by unionists who collectively may still command the largest bloc of votes despite the splintering of their parties.

Division

The DUP has already stated that it will not work in partnership with Sinn Féin first minister, Michelle O’Neill, unless the protocol is overhauled, which will surely be a tedious process between Belfast, Dublin, Westminster, and Brussels. Ms O’Neill says the country cannot be held to ransom by “no, nay, never” politics.

For now, a referendum on a united Ireland appears to be a long way off, as does a vote in favour. A poll last year indicated as few as one third of people in the North would vote for unification within 15 years. 

Support fell to just 25% if the creation of one country meant higher taxes or paying for healthcare. Even 20% of nationalist voters were deterred by this prospect.

Things may be clearer when the votes are counted. But we could be in for a prolonged period of protocol-bashing both from Stormont, if it sits, and from Westminster.

Sinn Féin says a decade of opportunity lies ahead. You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows, wrote Bob Dylan in ‘Subterranean Homesick Blues’. 

But the wind of change may still have a long time to blow before it ushers in a meaningful transition to something different.