Irish Examiner view: Europe anxiety over a French revolution

TV may have tipped balance back in favour of Macron but there is a core that do not care for the president

Centrist candidate and French President Emmanuel Macron speaks during a campaign rally Friday in Figeac, southwestern France. Picture: AP Photo/Christophe Ena

No French president has survived for a second term since Jacques Chirac in 2002. His victory was easy on that occasion. His opponent was Jean-Marie Le Pen, father of the current opposition candidate who will challenge Emmanuel Macron in Sunday’s run-off. 

Europe will be holding its breath for the outcome of this election.

Macron, who has already booked the Champs de Mars for his acceptance speech, is generally judged to have been the superior performer in Wednesday night’s televised debate, but not with the level of dominance that he demonstrated in 2017 when the two last faced each other.

Since then he has become less of an emollient, centrist, figure. He is, say his critics, “le président des riches et des rentiers” (leader of the wealthy and those with independent means); the gilets jaunes (yellow vest) protests for fiscal and social justice following his return saw the highest levels of street violence since the summer of revolution in 1968.

TV may have tipped the balance back in favour of Macron. The 2.5 hours were watched by 15.6m viewers. More than 31m people voted in 2017. One survey for BFM TV and L’Express gave Macron’s Republic on the Move party a 59% rating over Le Pen’s National Rally at 39%. “Macron on the offensive, Le Pen behind,” said Le Monde. “Advantage Macron,” declared Sud-Ouest, while for Le Figaro “Macron dominates”.

A ripped electoral poster of French President Emmanuel Macron.

Yet there is a resilient core of opinion that doesn’t care for him un peu, or indeed at all. A popular bar on the Camargue carried a poster outside proclaiming: If you voted for Macron, f*** off and drink somewhere else. Demonstrations carrying banners which state: No to Macron, no to Le Pen, mass abstentions, and public anger over the cost of living it was fury at the price of diesel that kickstarted the 2018 protests which were to accelerate into much wider anti-government sentiment could still jeopardise Macron’s chances.

In wider Europe, Macron is seen as an important counterbalance to Germany where its own new coalition-leading, Chancellor Olaf Scholz is experiencing his own small dark midnight of the soul with his country being accused of failing to provide the leadership that its economic power commands to assist Ukraine. 

Despite promises from Berlin, the levels of heavy weaponry provided for President Zelenskyy’s defending forces have been nugatory, and the attempts to ban or reduce the use of Russian oil and gas have been unconvincing.

In these circumstances, the war plays well for Macron. He has talked up the role of Europe although at the risk of alienating Nato, and its principal pillars, the US and Britain. But the EU does not need any further instability and a loss for the incumbent would be a significant setback for everyone.

Defeat for the anti-Macron forces, however, may not be easily assimilated particularly when they muster significant numbers across political divides in a time of financial stress.

A moment for Mick Jagger’s 1968 lyrics: Ev’rywhere I hear the sound of marching, charging feet, boy, Cause summer’s here and the time is right for fighting in the street, boy.