Irish Examiner view: Warning signs for Macron re-election

The French president has lost ground because of the understandable distraction of the first war in central Europe for over 70 years

French president Emmanuel Macron delivering his speech during a presidential campaign news conference in Aubervilliers, France. Picture: Thibault Camus/AP

What to make, then, of Emmanuel Macron, whose re-election credentials appeared firmly in place two months ago but who has lost ground because of the understandable distraction of the first war in central Europe for over 70 years.

Ahead of Sunday’s first round of voting, the newspaper Le Monde warned there were ominous signs of a repeat of the “2002 syndrome”, where low projected turnout, campaign complacency, and a high number of undecided voters made the outcome unpredictable and open to a last-minute “coup de théâtre”. In 2002, Jean-Marie Le Pen’s National Front beat the socialists to second place, although the final poll two weeks later was a landslide for Jacques Chirac.

Monsieur Macron has been relatively absent from the hustings and has seen his ratings slide against a populist challenge from Marine Le Pen of the National Rally party, who has edged into the ‘margin of error’ category in opinion polls. Le Pen, beaten by Macron in the run-off in 2017, has campaigned consistently on cost-of-living issues and softened her stance on capital punishment and leaving the euro. She has welcomed Ukrainian refugees. 

Voters have also disliked Macron’s lofty refusal to engage in any debate with other candidates because of “scheduling problems”.

This is an important election for France, but also for Europe and Ireland. 

Macron became the youngest democratically elected leader of his country five years ago. He has been an assertive figure on the international stage, demonstrating a willingness to challenge the role of Nato and to attempt to assume the leadership role vacated by Germany’s Angela Merkel. The British regard him as a primary obstacle to finding a route through Brexit. He may regard them as perfidious Albion, but they view him as a pocket Napoleon.

He is the first Western democratic leader to face a test at the ballot box since the double impact of Covid and war in Ukraine. There will be lessons to learn from this campaign in the Fifth Republic and here in Ireland.