Make or break time for Blair

These coming seven days will surely attest to the adage that a week is certainly a long time in politics.

It will be for Tony Blair, because having hitched his star to American determination to bring Saddam Hussein to heel, the British Prime Minister now faces the prospect of a rebellion in his own party.

If he allows himself to be drawn into war of aggression against Iraq, without the support of the United Nations, he will spark the rebellion of 200 Labour MPs, and possibly up to ten resignations of Parliamentary Private Secretaries.

The second UN resolution which has been tabled by the US, Britain and Spain, demands that by March 17, this day week, Saddam Hussein will have fully disarmed or show that he will disarm to the satisfaction of the Security Council.

The problem for Mr Blair, is whether or not that resolution will be passed when it is debated, probably in the middle of this week. At the moment, that outcome is looking far from certain.

Even if another six votes were forthcoming in the Security Council, to bring to the crucial nine, along with the US, Britain and Spain, there would still be the possibility of France exercising the veto, and that would be enough to cause the resolution to fall.