Ahern must state US war opposition

THE hands of those calling for military action against Baghdad will be greatly strengthened

Coming hot on the heels of the discovery of missiles exceeding the legal range, America will undoubtedly seize on the latest utterances of the al-Qaida leader to justify its inexorable march towards war with or without UN backing.

It will certainly be grist to the Bush administration's mill on the eve of a global protest when 10 million people are expected to take to the streets in the hope that world opinion will convince the US to rein in the dogs of war.

A question mark still hangs over the authenticity of the bin Laden tape, allegedly recorded this month and acquired on the internet by the British-based Islamic Al-Ansaar news agency.

It coincides with another tape issued by the Al-Jazeera satellite television station, also attributed to bin Laden, urging Iraqis to back Saddam Hussein and carry out

attacks against Americans.

Regardless of whether bin Laden's personal suicide threat proves real or not, it will give George W Bush a vital link with the attacks on New York and

Washington on September 11, 2001; an atrocity that claimed 3,000 lives and triggered America's self-declared war on global terrorism.

Arguably, the reference to the "eagle's belly" can be taken as reflecting bin Laden's wish to end his life in a final act of terrorism.

Generally viewed as a prelude to another strike, the bin Laden recordings are bound to heighten tensions in NATO, where a yawning gulf still divides the anti-war policy adopted by France and Germany on the one hand, and the hawkish policies of the US and Britain on the other.

With powerful American and British armies amassing for an all-out assault on Iraq, a crucial crossroads will be reached today when Chief UN weapons inspector Hans Blix briefs the UN Security Council on the missile

discovery in a vital report on Iraqi disarmament.

A panel of experts has found an al-Samoud

surface-to-surface ballistic missile had a range of 183km instead of the permitted UN limit of 150km.

Ominously, this discovery will pour petrol on a fire already blazing out of control.

In the thought process of Mr Bush, with all that

implies, the missile revelation provides further

confirmation that Baghdad is in breach of its

disarmament obligations under UN resolutions.

Meanwhile, as storm clouds gather, Ireland's role in a direct conflict scenario remains unclear.

If there is a war, and most observers believe there will be, the question facing the Government is whether to continue providing support systems for the US. For

instance, in the event of a go-it-alone assault on Iraq by the US, will re-fuelling facilities at Shannon be ruled out?

Ominously, sources say the Government intends

supporting unilateral action by the US even if that makes a mockery of Irish neutrality. While Iraq

threatens the world with missiles of mass destruction, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern is launching missives of mass confusion.

Mr Ahern should spell out now, and without further prevarication, Ireland's total opposition to any

declaration of war without the full authority of the UN.