Election poll - Surprises in store for candidates

Short of a miracle, it would appear that Dana Rosemary Scallon will not be returned to Europe as an MEP, according to the Irish Examiner poll conducted in the North West Constituency.

As the only elected MEP in the three-seater constituency, she currently languishes at 8%, well behind the leaders, a gap which she is unlikely to close.

The findings will be a source of particular satisfaction to junior minister Jim McDaid, as, at 18%, they put him three points ahead of party rival, Sean O’Neachtain, who has previously favoured in another poll.

The latter was nominated to replace Pat ‘The Cope’ Gallagher in Europe, but whether or not that experience will help him win a second seat for Fianna Fáil, is not at all sure at the moment.

What is sure, from the poll, is that Independent Marian Harkin, should maintain the momentum to follow Mr McDaid in, with her current 16%. It is not surprising, given the territory, that Sinn Féin’s Pearse Doherty is well placed at 15%, and will be a strong contender for third seat. It will be little comfort for Fine Gael to realise that their two candidates, Jim Higgins and Madeleine Taylor-Quinn, are fifth and sixth at the moment, and the party might have to face the possibility of eventually having no MEP in the constituency.

Labour can glean even less satisfaction from the poll with its Hughie Baxter trailing at a mere 4%.

In the local elections in the nine-county constituency, Fianna Fáil, on a big 45%, are clearly the leaders at this stage, with a 21 point gap with FG.

Ten points separate them from Labour and SF, both on 14%, after which the PDs and Greens with single figures with others. Although the question of the citizenship referendum is throwing up contradictory results in another poll, today’s Irish Examiner one mirrors that taken in the South constituency. Yesterday’s poll also showed that 43% say children born here should be automatically entitled to citizenship and 47 say should not, with 10 % don’t knows, it is still basically an issue that is too close to call.