Any party that wants to win the next election must avoid the far-right trap
Tánaiste Simon Harris's recent 'tough on immigration' rhetoric was quickly celebrated by key Irish far right influencers as a win. Photo: Brian Lawless/PA
It’s a mistake we have seen repeated across Europe, Britain and the US time and time again. Mainstream centre right and left politicians falling for the trap laid for them by far-right extremists intent on controlling what they say and do.
The playbook goes like this. Extremist rhetoric is given an outsized platform through manipulative and toxic social media platforms, racist violence spreads like wildfire, voices of solidarity and inclusion are silenced and politicians learn the wrong lessons. We see their public rhetoric move to the right, giving credence to the extreme beliefs of fringe voices.
Just this week, Tánaiste Simon Harris fell for this exact trap. His recent “tough on immigration” rhetoric was quickly celebrated by key Irish far right influencers as a win. Within minutes, co-ordinated networks were celebrating his remarks as proof that their worldview is “winning”.
What was more striking, however, was that instead of praising his position, this ecosystem only rejected Harris further, using well-known far-right tropes such as “traitor” to describe him. So who was Simon Harris speaking to? Most likely a mythical voter who believes in far-right world views but who is still happy to vote for establishment centre-right parties.
Several key pieces of research explain how this strategy backfires. Political scientists have studied this trend in depth and the conclusion is clear: shifting rightward only alienates moderates and haemorrhages right leaning voters to far-right parties.
Voters motivated by anger and grievance tend to stick with the original, more extreme source. Meanwhile, progressive and liberal supporters drift away, disillusioned by what looks like a moral retreat.
The question is, where do those disillusioned progressive and liberal voters go? It depends on whether they can find a political home elsewhere, and in Ireland it is increasingly clear that they can and will.
Just last week, Catherine Connolly, who explicitly rejected far-right narratives throughout the course of her campaign secured 914,000 first preference votes, the highest number ever recorded for any candidate in Irish history.
Centre left parties would also be wise to learn the right lessons from this historic victory which was based on strong, values-led campaigning that focused on the bread and butter issues that most of the electorate care about.
They would do well to remember that in the last general election the top issues that decided people’s vote were by far housing, cost of living and health.
We don’t have to look too far overseas for further evidence that centre-left and -right parties who refuse to address people’s material needs and instead gesture to far-right politics are playing a losing game.
In the United States, Zohran Mamdani maintains a strong lead in the New York Mayoral election by focusing on affordability and dignity in daily life.
It’s easy to see that politicians get rattled by moments of increased racist rhetoric which is amplified online. They react out of fear and some could argue cowardice, rather than clear-headed strategy. The question is why their responses continue to be so myopic and unstrategic when all evidence points to these actions facilitating their own cannibalisation by far-right parties.
For centre and centre-right parties in Ireland like Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, the answer may be that it is a last-ditch attempt to cling to power. They may view their credibility on issues like housing, health and education to be limited, and that may be a fair assumption.
For centre-left parties, such as Sinn Féin, the path to power should be clearer. Instead of repeating rhetoric framed as “populist” through social media algorithmic smoke and mirrors — despite not actually being popular — they should follow the evidence.
Both the research and their own recent success in backing a candidate who unapologetically stood for an inclusive, affordable republic that benefits working people whether they were born here or came here to seek safety and build a better life in their communities illuminates the path to power ahead.
The evidence is clear: if you want to win the next election focus on the bread and butter issues, repeat what exactly you are for, not against. Build an inclusive “we” and speak to the things that make people’s lives better.
Explain what you are going to make more affordable and accessible and how you are going to do it. People vote for parties that speak to their hopes, not their fears. We just need leaders brave and smart enough to do it.
- Emily Duffy is Hope and Courage Collective communications lead
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