Theresa Reidy: Catherine Connolly's victory has lessons for the Government, the left, and future candidates

Catherine Connolly's victory was the culmination of a vibrant but also a disciplined campaign. Picture: Eamonn Farrell/RollingNews.ie

Catherine Connolly secured a record-breaking victory in the election, garnering an enormous 914,143 votes. 

Connolly’s victory was the culmination of a vibrant but also a disciplined campaign. She entered the race early in the summer and navigated the perils and pitfalls of presidential elections with great political skill. She endured the intense personal scrutiny calmly, rarely straying from her core message, never resiling from her long-held positions even though many of these are not shared by a majority of voters. To voters, she was authentic. 

There are lessons for future candidates from her success. Early intent and organisation matter. Mary Robinson declared her plan to run for the presidency in April 1990, Michael D Higgins began campaigning in June 2011. Presidential elections are vicious and the scrutiny is almost unbearable but a candidate who can endure the continuous questioning with grace, and provide answers that are consistent, demonstrates character and judgement, important qualities that voters want in a president.

Underpinning Connolly’s victory is a nascent left-coalition. The political landscape on the left has always been fractured with many parties competing in what can seem like very similar ideological positions. But parties on the left are concerned with ideology, their commitments are sincere, and that is why it is often more difficult for them to compromise. 

Parties of the centre tend to be more pragmatic. 

The big question for the left is whether they can overcome some of their ideological differences and form a coherent coalition in advance of the next election. 

Progress has been made, relationships have been developed, and structures for co-operating are now in place. 

But that was the easy bit. Now, the parties must develop a shared platform. They will all still be separate parties with their own candidates and policies but they need to identify shared principles around which they can all coalesce and agree. But first, there is a by-election coming in Galway for Connolly’s vacant Dáil seat. The next operational step is to have a transfer pact among the parties that works. Only if they unify will they be able to challenge the centre.

The election result sends a sharp warning note to the Government. Heather Humphreys struggled to make an impact. Throughout the election, she never managed to shake off her years in government and she was constantly defending government policy. The 2024 general election result was a lukewarm endorsement of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Only 12 months in office, the temperature has cooled even further. 

There is great unhappiness among middle class voters. The budget did not help. The Government spent almost €9bn extra, an extraordinary sum, and middle Ireland feels like it got no benefit. It does not matter whether that is true or not. Perception is reality in politics. 

The presidential election was a second order election and these elections have specific characteristics. Governments always struggle, candidates from small parties do better, and the issues discussed are usually quite different from general elections when taxes, spending, and the economy are front and centre. The next election may be four years away but the Government cannot allow its current drift to continue.

Enraged voters

And then there is a small but vocal minority of enraged voters. A total of 213,738 people spoiled their votes. And this figure is probably an under-estimate because evidence from the Ireland Thinks poll showed that some voters cast their preference for the Fianna Fáil candidate Jim Gavin in protest, or in the belief that this would be a spoiled vote.

This is not a homogenous group. There are two big clusters within it, the Catholic right and the anti-immigrant far-right; there is overlap between these two clusters, and there are other fragments of opinion in there as well. A great many of these voters were very angry at the choice of just two candidates. This scenario can be rectified. There is no need for a referendum. In 2011, there were seven candidates on the ballot, there were six in 2018. The process works. Parties and Independents sought to stifle it in 2025. They should heed the anger and respond. 

I would be very surprised if there isn’t a much wider choice of candidates at the next election. 

But there is also a much deeper rage within these groups of voters, they are angry at how Ireland has changed. 

The evidence from the National Election and Democracy Study shows that these groups are hostile to immigrants, resentful of liberal social changes, annoyed about gender equality, and many believe in medical conspiracy theories about covid and vaccines, as well as odd theories about who runs the world. These issues are much more difficult to address.

One immensely dangerous notion which emerged from the extremes within this cluster over the weekend was an attempt to delegitimise the election outcome, to suggest that the election had been rigged or fixed in some way. This is an outrageous and treacherous claim, and it must be refuted.

Connolly won the election, fair and square. She was elected in a contest that adhered to every word of the Constitution and every letter of the law. She will become Uachtarán na hÉireann on November 11 and henceforth will be a representative for all Irish people in Ireland, and around the world.

• Prof Theresa Reidy is a political scientist at University College Cork.