Dorcha Lee: Implementation of Gaza ceasefire deal gets off to shaky start

Hamas has consolidated its control over areas of Gaza and a security vacuum has developed

Palestinians walk along Al-Rashid road toward Gaza City from Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip after the declaration of the ceasefire. Picture: Bashar Taleb/AFP via Getty

Hamas has consolidated its control over most of the areas vacated by the Israel defense forces (IDF), deploying an estimated 7,000 fighters. US envoy Steve Witkoff and US president Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner will meet its leadership next week.

The implementation of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza has got off to a very shaky start, in sharp contrast to ceasefire agreements organised by the UN in past wars. Irish military and Garda veterans, with vast experience in UN ceasefire monitoring and truce supervision, must be appalled at the shambles unfolding in front of our very eyes.

The ceasefire was supposed to go into effect immediately on Israeli cabinet approval, shortly after midnight, Thursday night. At 5.45am (local time) on Friday morning, the Israeli air force conducted an intense air strike on Khan Younis. The ceasefire order finally came into effect at 9am (local time). By 12pm on Friday, the IDF had completed its withdrawal to the new agreed defensive line, creating a large area without security. Hamas sent armed patrols into this area and said it had the right of freedom of movement in all of Gaza, not just the areas vacated by the IDF.

Multinational peacekeepers

For a ceasefire to be successfully implemented, the first step is to suspend all offensive operations, the second step is to effect the biggest possible separation of forces, and the third step is to stabilise the security situation, ideally with multinational impartial peacekeeping forces.

In the case of Gaza, the 200-strong US ceasefire monitoring team started to arrive in Israel only last Friday evening. It should have been in position, set up, and ready to deploy before the IDF withdrawal began on Thursday night/Friday night. At 9am, it should have been able to establish a presence in the vacated area. This team can only monitor a ceasefire.

A multinational force of several thousand troops should be arriving on day one to stabilise security in the area, supported by multinational civilian police. The result is a major security vacuum. 

Nature abhors a vacuum, and a military vacuum is a recipe for a resumption of war.

By Saturday evening, the first clash between Hamas and the Dogmush Clan in Gaza City left 27 dead, of which eight were Hamas fighters. On Monday, three Palestinians who came too close to the new IDF positions were shot and killed. Israeli media showed photos, not independently confirmed, of Hamas fighters executing 30 ‘collaborators’ in a Gaza square.

As anticipated, hundreds of thousands of people started to trek back mainly to Northern Gaza. There were no police to assist this movement, no logistics preparation for the movement nor to support them on arrival. UN reports say 90% of Gaza has been destroyed.

International Rescue Committee chief executive David Miliband said that, while the necessary aid to support the Gaza population has been assembled outside Gaza, there were still major obstacles to getting the aid into Gaza, 24 hours after the ceasefire. By Sunday, the Israelis opened an additional crossing point and the flow of aid began to be improved.

The EU announced that its border experts, necessary to open up the border crossings for medical evacuation to Egypt, will only be deployed on Wednesday at Rafah.

Fortunately, the Egyptians went ahead over the weekend and opened two crossing points for humanitarian aid convoys in the southern area.

This peace initiative has been launched on a wing and a prayer. It is sustained by the will and the determination of Mr Trump, who visited Egypt and Israel on Monday.

All 20 living Israeli hostages were released before 12pm on Monday. By Monday evening, an estimated 1,900 Palestinian detainees were released at different locations, most returning to the West Bank.

The initial agreement, which covers only the first few provisions of the 20-point plan, meets Israeli demands but, for Hamas, looks more like terms for surrender. Hamas was not even involved in the initial discussions, nor in drafting the plan.

As the hostages are released, Hamas leverage is gone and if it is fully disarmed prematurely, it will be at the mercy of the IDF. While the security vacuum continues, one incident could be enough to bring the IDF back, as Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised, to ‘finish the job’.

Plan's positive measures

However, on the plus side, the plan proposes, for the first time in this conflict, three important measures which have been consistently mentioned in my Irish Examiner analyses over the past 18 months.

First, in point no 6, there is provision for Hamas members who commit to peaceful coexistence to be granted an amnesty, where members who wish to leave the Gaza Strip will be granted safe passage to receiving countries and allowed to return.

Second, in point no 8, the UN would resume responsibility for aid distribution, along with other international organisations not associated with either Israel or Hamas. As I previously recommended, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation could participate. This is now acknowledged as feasible, as it is technically an American organisation, even if it was the brainchild of the Israelis and was originally crafted to fit the Israeli government’s prosecution of the war.

Third, in point no 15, a multinational stabilisation force would be immediately deployed to Gaza to oversee security in the strip. The force will develop and train a Palestinian police force, which will serve as a long-term internal security body.

People react as they watch a live broadcast of Israeli hostages released from Gaza at a plaza known as hostages square in Tel Aviv, Israel. Picture: Oded Balilty/AP

What is unclear is whether the tunnel system under Gaza City has still got access to the other tunnel systems, mainly leading south. If so, Hamas may have moved out or just relocated elsewhere in the strip.

Mr Trump, however, has succeeded in persuading the Israelis to allow Hamas to negotiate on key points of the plan. To achieve a long and lasting peace, these negotiations should be allowed to take their course.

Getting impartial multinational peacekeepers on the ground should be the top priority, both to maintain the ceasefire but also to secure the humanitarian operation. 

Inaction, in this regard, could see the latest peace initiative rapidly unravel.

Hamas has accepted that it will take no part in the post-war governance of Gaza. There is still no information on how, or when, or in what sequence it will be disarmed. It is important to remember that Hamas has not yet agreed to disarm.

The decommissioning of IRA weapons was the rock on which the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement was built. Could a similar process help with the disarmament of Hamas?

There is also no sign of the US ceasefire monitoring team being deployed, which could indicate that its deployment will happen in conjunction with the upcoming meeting between the US delegation and the Hamas leadership.

• Dorcha Lee is a retired army colonel and defence analyst.