Fianna Fáil set for general election towards end of 2024

Fianna Fáil TDs and senators are increasingly expecting the election to be called in November 2024. Picture: Damien Eagers

Fianna Fáil TDs and senators are preparing themselves for a winter 2024 general election.

At the party’s think-in at the Horse and Jockey village in Tipperary, the mood was positive as Fianna Fáil prepared for its first budget with the Finance portfolio since the post-2008 economic crash.

Fianna Fáil members are hopeful the party can put its own stamp on the budget ahead of the expected election at the end of next year. The official Government line remains that the coalition will run its full term, with an election due to be called in February 2025.

However, there is persistent speculation that instead of going full-term, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar will seek to dissolve the Dáil and hold an election in November 2024, just a month after the coalition’s final budget.

The Green Party is urging Mr Varadkar to hold off calling the election until 2025, with Environment Minister Eamon Ryan previously saying it “would be better in March 2025 rather than autumn 2024”.

He cited the stability of the coalition and the likely protracted negotiations needed to form a new government as reasons to hold off as long as possible.

But Fianna Fáil TDs and senators are increasingly expecting the election to be called in November 2024. When asked about it, they are positive about the potential benefits. The case for it is simple: November is not an overly busy month and people are likely to be in a better mood in the run-up to Christmas. 

One TD said that it could add a “feel-good factor” to the election, while also giving the party ample time to gather the necessary funds to get candidates off the ground. A giveaway budget would also help get voters in the mood to give coalition TDs a higher preference on their ballot. 

One senior source suggested that holding such a budget a few weeks earlier, in September, would also give the Government time to get the necessary legislation through the Dáil before it is dissolved.

It’s likely that there will be some cost-of-living measures contained within next year’s budget. These measures are proven to be successful, with energy credits helping ease the cost of electricity.

One senator said that they could not see a reason for an election before November, adding that it was key that the final budget be delivered.

However, a case will still be needed as to why the election is taking place five months ahead of schedule. On this, one source suggested that it could be done by framing the budget as the Government’s last action, leaving the remaining five months of its term as less important.

Potential flies in the ointment for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will be that Sinn Féin, the odds-on favourite to be the biggest party after the next election, are likely to be ready to go whenever the starting gun is fired.

With candidates for all parties being selected ahead of the local elections next June, Sinn Féin will have tickets ready to go across the country and will ensure it does not leave seats behind as it did in 2020.

The public may also suffer from some election fatigue, as it will only be a few short months after both the local and European elections.

Even though there is a long way to go before November 2024, buckle up. The campaign has already begun.