Jess Casey: Decline in 'cruel' random selection in CAO process to be welcomed

With more than two thirds of grades bumped up, Jess Casey asks why have course points dropped this year?

Aimee Long and Zoe Dunlea of St Patrick’s Girls College, Gardiners Hill, Cork, getting their Leaving Certificate results last week. Picture: Jim Coughlan.

Despite another year of bumper Leaving Cert grades, points are down at almost half of all college courses this year. How come?

Almost 60% of students received their first preference degree course, despite another year of record-high points, data from the CAO shows. This year, more than two-thirds of all grades were bumped up to ensure the Leaving Cert class of 2023 fared as well as last year's students.

Pandemic-era grade inflation peaked in 2021, and it subsequently wreaked havoc on the CAO process. That September, 22 courses breached the 600-point threshold, which had only been exceeded for the first time in 2019 by one single course.

Entry to a significant number of high-point courses that year was also determined by random selection, which meant students who secured extremely high points missed out on their first choice. This trend slowed somewhat in 2022, but there were no moves to reverse grade inflation, which subsequently led to another tight points race. 

While no further grade inflation was recorded in 2023, the overall results have been kept at the same level as last year. With grades remaining inflated again this year, students faced a tense wait to see what impact, if any, another year of record results would have on college entry.

On Wednesday afternoon, almost 58,000 CAO candidates received more than 87,000 Round One offers of a college place. This included 52,949 Level 8 courses and 34,126 Level 7 or 6 courses.

From the data, we can see points fell across 48% of all college courses, most notably in nursing, medicine, and primary teaching, which remain popular choices for students each year.

Random selection

Random selection, which sees entry to a course determined by a lottery, occurred at roughly 17 high-point courses. This is a significant decrease when compared to 2022 and 2021.

Among the courses that went to random selection this year is Management Science and Information Systems Studies at Trinity College Dublin, which attracted first-round cut-off points of 625.

Entry to all three pharmacy courses, offered at Trinity, University College Cork, and the RCSI, was determined this year by random selection.

Points drop

Although popularity is a factor in determining a course’s cut-off points, a drop in points shouldn’t necessarily be equated with a drop in interest. Entry points to college courses are determined mainly by supply and demand.

Moves to increase the number of college places available to students this year seem to have mitigated the worst potential fall-out from grade inflation.

A drop in points can also be interpreted as a good thing; It means access to a course has widened and a wider net of students has been offered a place.

It’s also worth keeping in mind that cut-off points for entry to many courses come from a high base set in previous CAO cycles.

Take nursing, which saw a surge in demand over the course of the pandemic. This year, points decreased across almost 90% of all nursing courses.

This year, an extra 255 nursing college places were added to universities across the country which may go some way towards explaining the drop in points. 

Points rise

Interestingly, the four honours degree courses that recorded increases in points this year are midwifery courses, which did not have extra places added. Midwifery at Dundalk Institute of Technology increased by 21 points this year, and entry was determined by random selection.

The Bachelor of Science in Midwifery at University Limerick also saw its cut-off points jump this year by 11 points, while Midwifery at Trinity College Dublin jumped by 11 points.

In 2023, entry points for medicine dropped for the first time in recent years this CAO round, falling between four and seven points at the five undergraduate courses. An extra 60 college places were added this year as part of plans to increase the number of doctors qualifying here.

Cut-off points this year ranged from 729 at the University of Galway, and 741 at Trinity College Dublin (TCD).  Entry into medicine is determined through a mix of Leaving Cert points and HPAT results, a typically low-scoring exam that tests logical reasoning and problem-solving, understanding, and non-verbal reasoning.

Education courses

Primary school teaching also recorded significant drops in CAO cut-off points this round, ranging between 73 to 10 points. However, entry to a number of courses was still determined by random selection.

Demand in any given year is always high for these courses, so points remained relatively high; From 577 for Education and Psychology at Mary Immaculate College in Limerick, to 477 at Marino Institute of Education.

This year, 90 additional places were added to Bachelor of Education Courses in 2023, as well as an extra 30 new places on Bachelor of Education Courses through the medium of Irish.

Meanwhile, points increased at almost 60% of all secondary teaching undergraduate courses. With entry into the profession now taking two years through the Professional Master of Education (PME), more students may be opting to qualify at an earlier stage rather than face a master's degree. 

Other courses

Courses in the arts and humanities remained popular choices with students this year, as did courses in languages, the sciences, and engineering. Courses in law saw their points drop this round of the CAO, ranging from 501 at the University of Galway, a decrease of 42 when compared to 2022, to 263 at Dublin Business School. 

When it comes to Level 7/6 offers, 90% issued on Wednesday were for the students' first preference courses, while the vast majority (99%) covered one of their top three preferences.

Popular courses here included dental nursing at the Letterkenny ATU campus, as well as the college's health science with physiotherapy course.

Speaking on Wednesday afternoon, higher education Minister Simon Harris welcomed the reduction in the number of courses this year offered through “cruel” random selection. 

Random selection can be a particularly cruel and difficult way that you get the max points perhaps required, but you still find yourself not guaranteed a place in the course.

Students are beginning to see the benefit of investment in growing the number of college places with targeted increases in areas such as medicine and nursing, he added. 

Although almost 60% of students received their first choice this year, Mr Harris said grade inflation needs to be unwound. 

“We’re going to be very honest here, there is no ability, I don’t believe, to eradicate grade inflation overnight. This is something that needs to be done over a number of years in a careful way."