New report could heighten the urban-rural divide in relation to female candidate numbers

The new constituency boundaries will also have an impact on the implementation of the gender quota, especially given that the target increases from 30% to 40% at the next general election, writes Adrian Kavanagh

These changes also affect people and areas — some people will now find themselves on the “wrong side” of new constituency boundaries and will be choosing from candidates from different counties whom they have little or no knowledge about. File picture

If the period between general elections can be viewed as effectively a marathon, then the release of a new election boundary report is the point in time where the pace decidedly picks up, and some unfortunate contenders “hit the wall”. 

Political parties will need to think, or re-think, their candidate selection and campaigning strategies in light of these changes. For some TDs, the changes may effectively ensure their Dáil careers will come to an end at the next general election. 

But these changes also affect people and areas — some people will now find themselves on the “wrong side” of new constituency boundaries and will be choosing from candidates from different counties whom they have little or no knowledge about.

This is the first boundary report from the new Electoral Commission, and, in fairness, a conscious effort has been made to limit the level of county boundary breaches, as opposed to the turbo-charged level of breaches made in the last Constituency Commission report in 2017. 

Breaches involving Laois, Offaly, Louth, Westmeath, Mayo, Tipperary and Roscommon have been resolved.  However, new county boundary breaches involving part of Kilkenny, as well as Wicklow (and Wexford), have emerged, while voters in areas such as south Donegal will be frustrated to remain on the “wrong side” of a constituency boundary line. 

There were some decisions that were unexpected, including the decision to divide Wicklow and Wexford into three constituencies, ultimately creating two “group of death” four-seat Wicklow and Wexford constituencies, with five sitting TDs fighting for the seats, and a “group of life” three-seat Wicklow-Wexford constituency, with no sitting TD currently based within this new constituency area. 

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Voters in Tullaroan, Johnstown and Lisdowney will have woken up to the unexpected news that they are now linked politically with their bitter hurling rivals in Tipperary. 

In the Cork region, the extra two seats were given to Cork North-Central and Cork South-Central. 

To me, the likelier recipients of these seats seemed to be Cork East and Cork North-West, and I had thought that the boundary review would allow scope for the Cork North-Central and Cork South-Central constituencies to become increasingly focused on the enlarged Cork city area, while remaining as four-seaters.

Changing boundary lines can make, or break, a politician’s career. Unless their party is having a surge in support, as with Sinn Féin in 2020, a boundary line going through the wrong place at the wrong time can see a politician shed thousands of the votes they would have won at previous elections. 

By and large, Irish politicians win large proportions of their personal votes in, and around, their home areas, a phenomenon that we electoral geographers refer to as the friends and neighbours effect. 

If a new boundary line is drawn through a politician’s local base, it can leave them facing an uphill struggle to retain their seat at the next election, and in many cases, the laws of geographical gravity cannot be defied. 

One of the TDs to be particularly adversely impacted by these changes has been Sean Sherlock, whose Mallow base has been moved into an entirely different constituency, and he will face a difficult decision as to whether he remains in Cork East, or else follows his local votes and opts to move to Cork North-Central. 

Veteran Cork political commentators will remember that Batt O’Keeffe was faced with a similar scenario after the 2004 Constituency Commission report and opted to follow his Ballincollig support base into Cork North-West. 

Given how close the new boundary between Wicklow-Wexford and Wexford comes to the town, the three Enniscorthy-based TDS — Paul Kehoe, James Browne and Johnny Mythen — will be certain to lose a chunk of their local support, irrespective of which of the two constituencies that they to contest.

It is hard to definitively judge whether the boundary changes particularly favour the Government parties or Sinn Féin, but there are opportunities for Sinn Féin seat gains, especially in light of that party’s current national support levels as evidenced in recent opinion polls. 

At another time, the increased number of three-seat constituencies in rural Ireland would have acted as an advantage to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. This may well be the case come the next general election, but these parties do have work to do in the meantime to shore up their support levels in rural Ireland. 

It is no longer a certainty that both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will win one seat each in a rural three-seater and — indeed as happened in Roscommon-Galway at the 2020 election — some of these constituencies may elect no TD from the Government parties at the next election, with Tipperary South and Cork South-West, as well as Roscommon-Galway, at this point in time, looking like particularly challenging constituencies for these parties.

The new constituency boundaries will also have an impact on the implementation of the gender quota, especially given that the target increases from 30% to 40% at the next general election. 

The overall increase in seat numbers across the state (from 160 to 174) offers an opportunity to allow for an overall increase in candidate numbers, and a different political landscape to the 2016 election, when the gender quota was initially introduced at a point in time when overall Dáil seat numbers were being cut from 166 to 158. 

The new report is likely to heighten urban-rural differentials in relation to female candidate numbers, but particularly for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. A number of urban constituencies are gaining seats, but there is an increased number of three-seaters in rural Ireland. 

Political parties might find it easier to run more new candidates in urban areas where increased seat numbers offer spaces to run more candidates but may be inclined to opt for more conservative, one-candidate, selection strategies in the rural three-seaters. 

In this light, do not be surprised if female candidates account for close to, or over, half of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil candidates in urban constituencies at the next general election while accounting for a much lower proportion of candidates in the more rural constituencies.