Elaine Loughlin: Will Micheál Martin lead Fianna Fáil into the next election? 

Jack Chambers is the name that comes up when succession is discussed as talk grows of general election on November 24

Elaine Loughlin On the Plinth

An té nach gcuireann san earrach ní bhaineann sé san fhómhar.

Translated, the old Irish proverb cautions that those who don’t sow the spring don’t reap in the autumn.

Across Government, it seems, the plotting and sowing of ideas has already begun.

As reported in the Irish Examiner yesterday, there is now a feeling among some in Fine Gael that Sinn Féin is on a bad run and has suffered fallout from the Jonathan Dowdall trial and it may be more advantageous to go to the polls after a giveaway budget later this year.

But who might be leading Fianna Fáil if an election were to be called for November 24?

There are rumblings that it may not be Micheál Martin.

While polls are apparently snapshots in time that politicians don’t pay any attention to, there are signifying grumblings in Fianna Fáil about where it now stands.

Tánaiste and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin is the most popular leader in the country, according to polls.

A significant rift in the level of support for the Fianna Fáil leader and the party itself has emerged, which has left elected representatives at a loss to make sense of it. Some members have been baffled by the discrepancy, but for others it has morphed into an annoyance that is only becoming more pronounced with each poll.

The latest Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks March poll saw Martin retain the title of most-popular leader, with the Tánaiste receiving a one-point bump to 45%. However, Fianna Fáil as a party could only muster 19% support.

“The polls are worrying us, there is no point in saying they are not,” one source said.

Having a new leader in place ahead of a general election — whether that comes a few weeks, a few months, or even a year after a changeover — is the preference for a number of senior party members and backbenchers within Fianna Fáil.

Consistently, Jack Chambers is the name that comes up when succession is discussed.

Jack Chambers: Currently the super junior minister at the Department of Transport.

There are others in the party, of course, who would be seen as potential leaders, but it appears their support has dwindled in recent times. 

Michael McGrath would amount to “only changing the overcoat” and Jim O’Callaghan is seen by some as “busted flush”, as one member put it, who added that Dara Calleary no longer appears interested in leadership.

Chambers, on the other hand, has been out and about pressing the flesh and attending local events on the rubber chicken
circuit.

“I find him unbelievable with people, people love him,” said one Fianna Fáil senator, who — like most of the party — has welcomed Chambers to their constituency a number of times in the past 12 months.

He has been out and about an awful lot across the country, he is very available to the grassroots.

While last December’s rotation — which resulted in a sideways shuffle from chief whip to super junior in the Department of Transport — was undoubtedly disappointing for Chambers, it has provided him with the space to continue to travel the length and breadth of the country.

“I would say Chambers’ position is improving consistently,” one TD noted. “He’s courting us big time, he’s working hard with the TDs and senators, he’s touring the country.

“Jack is definitely trying to put himself in a position to be a leadership challenge.”

Timing is everything and some who are pushing for change want it before the end of the year, with the autumn a preferable time to welcome a new leader.

This would provide Chambers with the time to bed in and gain momentum ahead of the local elections in 2024.

The local elections are also a key consideration given the fact that Chambers has responsibility for co-ordinating candidates and strategy.

“I don’t know why he took the job,” said one TD when asked about the role and how it might impact the chances of the Dublin West TD.

In 2019, Fianna Fáil returned 279 local representatives, an increase of 12 seats. However, given the rise of Sinn Féin, it is widely expected that others will lose out to Mary Lou McDonald’s party at a local level next year.

Sources say defeat in the local elections would undoubtedly spark a tumble in Chambers’ stock within the party, so it would be important that a leadership challenge is mounted and completed before the locals.

Some seasoned politicians believe Chambers needs time to gain experience before taking a step up.

In the back of all minds is the botched attempt, which in reality could barely be classified as an attempt, back in September 2021, when it had been rumoured that members might press the “eject button” on Martin at the Fianna Fáil think-in.

“In Cavan, if there was a move made against him then, he would have fallen,” said one party source, adding that it was clear that the rebels would have secured the 10 votes needed to mount a heave.

“You wouldn’t get the colour of that now.”

Others, not wanting to rock the boat, believe that a natural end to Martin’s reign will come without bloodshed next year and are banking on him taking up a role with the EU Commission.

“I just can’t see it [Martin stepping aside] unless it’s on his terms because nobody has been brave enough or had the balls to do anything and I don’t think that has changed,” said one member, who would be seen as among the group that would instigate change.

“There is a lot of disgruntlement, a lot of giving out, but there is nothing coherent.”

The grumbling may continue, but a lack of real intent this spring will be what saves Martin come the autumn.

From the archives

1922

March 17: Pro and anti-Treaty politicians used St Patrick’s Day to hold meetings across the country. Reporting on the speech by Michael Collins in Skibbereen, The Cork Examiner stated that the politician referred to the previous year when “the hangman was busy and very few of his audience expected to be there that day. He himself certainly did not expect it, and they did not expect to see their friends — the Black and Tans and the British soldiers — sailing away.”

1984

March 20: A clue as to why then US president Ronald Reagan was “so sprightly” at the age of 73 was believed to have been found in North Cork by researcher and genealogist Hugh Peskett. It was discovered that David O’Reagan of Donneraile, “who may have been one of his ancestors”, had lived to 107.

1995

March 14: Fianna Fáil’s Bertie Ahern “pulled out all the stops” to get the crowd going at a party rally in Cork. TP O’Mahony reported that “he even mentioned Jack Lynch ahead of Éamon de Valera (sacrilege in Haughey’s time), knowing full well that Jack has a medal record (six All-Irelands in a row) never likely to be equalled”.

2000

March 15: Under the headline ‘Plan to turn beet into fuel for cars’, it was reported that Irish Sugar was proposing to open a biofuel plant capable of processing sugar for use as a supplement to petrol. Trevor Sargent, then a Green Party TD, called for incentives for farmers to produce biofuel crops, which he said had the potential to reduce greenhouse gases.

Did you know

While green is the colour strongly associated with the Emerald Isle and St Patrick's Day festivities, the official colour of Ireland in heraldic terms is actually blue. 

The colour blue's association with St Patrick dates from the 1780s, when it was adopted as the colour of the Anglo-Irish Order of St Patrick. 

The Presidential flag, or Presidential Standard, features a gold 'Brian Boru harp' on a blue background. The Dáil chamber is also covered in a deep royal blue carpet with gold edging.

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