Explainer: Who is winning in Ukraine – and what will happen next?

While experts differ on whether a new offensive is imminent, one year on the picture is very different to what was predicted

Ukrainian Railway workers rebuilding a railway bridge in Irpin, Ukraine, damaged in the war with Russia. Photo: Dovgan Tetiana/PA

As the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches on Friday, the picture looks very different to the first weeks of the war, when hundreds of Russian tanks poured over the border and airborne forces attempted to capture Hostomel airfield, outside Kyiv, as a springboard to take the capital. 

Here we look at the status of the conflict and what might happen next.