Elaine Loughlin: Sinn Féin needs Paschal to survive too — nobody wants a snap election
While demanding scalps may be a favourite opposition pastime, Sinn Féin needs Paschal Donohoe to survive just as much as the Government does.
Unlike junior ministers Damien English and Robert Troy who were forced to resign over their declarations, Donohoe, who presided over the State's finances for five years before recently returning to Public Expenditure is too big to fall, as one Sinn Féin TD put it and his resignation would ultimately mean a snap general election.
And right now, nobody wants that.
While Mary Lou McDonald constantly points to a public appetite for change, her party is not currently ready to herald in that change through an election.
Added to this is the fact that the opposition knows, and has been privately admitting, that the scale of Donohoe's declaration omission does not merit a resignation and pushing for this could backfire if they were to face the general public immediately afterwards.
As Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar told the Dáil last week: "I believe Paschal Donohoe. I believe he is a man of integrity and a man of the highest standards.
"He is somebody I have known for a very long time and I believe he is somebody we can trust, and somebody who I believe.
"I think, deep down, everyone in this House knows that — that Paschal is a man of integrity and somebody who tells the truth."
Numerous Sinn Féin TDs have admitted off-record that Donohoe will survive.
"My sense of it if it was somebody else, they would be in big trouble. I think he's been fairly caught, I think his story doesn't add up.
"So that's my sense, purely just because of his importance to the Government and his relative popularity, including with the Fianna Fáil side of the house, he will survive," one TD said.
A snap general election would send all parties into a tizzy. Sinn Féin, having badly calculated the numbers back in 2020, more than any other will be under intense pressure to have all ballot papers stuffed with candidates.
Former Cork TD Jonathan O'Brien has been working to identify running mates for existing politicians and new candidates in constituencies that are currently not represented in the Dáil, but this work is at various stages across the country.
It is understood that the party has identified around 18 election running mates or candidates, but it means that Sinn Féin still has a good deal of work to do to meet the target of having at least one extra candidate added in all constituencies next time around.
While some consistencies, including Cork North-Central and Cork South-Central, have been boxed off, others are still up in the air but gender and geography will be taken into account.
"If there was an election tomorrow morning, we don't have everyone in place. There is body of work being done to put candidates in place, meeting with candidates, interviewing them, especially women," one sitting TD said.
Over the summer the party spokespeople, such as David Cullinane in health and Eoin Ó Broin in housing, were also asked to develop policy in their areas in the event that they have to go to the polls unexpectedly.
But all political groups, and not just Mary Lou's party, are also hoping to hold out until the new constituency boundaries and allocation of seats in each constituency is announced in the coming months.
The 2022 Census figures shows that dramatic changes in some constituencies will be required.
Of the 39 existing Dáil constituencies, 38 now have more than 30,000 people for every TD.
Bringing constituencies in line with the Constitution, which stipulates that there must be one TD for every 20,000 to 30,000 people, will mean dividing some constituencies in two, slashing borders and adding seats.
One Sinn Féin TD said: "We will be standing more candidates in the next general election so with or without a boundary review, I'd imagine in most constituencies we are are going to be standing more than one candidate, that's no secret.
However, another senior Sinn Féin politician pointed out that going into an election at a time that is not of the Government's choosing would suit opposition parties.
"If that happened and we fall into an election obviously, you know, it would be difficult to get prepared, but we would be as prepared as anyone else," the TD added.
Postergate has allowed Sinn Féin and the opposition to score political points against the Government at the start of a new Dáil term.
It has inflicted significant damage on Paschal Donohoe, a politician up until now credited for his attention to detail and high standards in public office, and to the Government in general.
However, in this instance the opposition won't want to see a head role for fear of an immediate election.
As politicians returned from their Christmas break last week, the only issue being spoken about around the corridors of Leinster House was the controversy around Minister Paschal Donohoe's election postering. The Public Expenditure Minister will be back before the Dáil on Tuesday and must put the matter to bed to avoid further heat being put on the coalition Government.
The controversial deal between Coillte and Gresham House, the UK-based venture capital fund, on the acquisition of 100,000 ha of forestry across the country is to be raised by Sinn Féin in the Dáil. The party is to bring forward a motion on Tuesday evening. Agriculture Minister Charlie McConalogue will be before an Oireachtas committee on Wednesday and there will be further statements on Ireland's forestry strategy in the Dáil on Thursday.
Independent TD Michael Healy-Rae is expected to be named as chair of a Special Committee being established to look into the area of assisted dying. The committee will meet in private before it hears from experts and stakeholders in the coming months.
The Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement is to hear from former British prime minister John Major on Thursday afternoon.
WT Cosgrave resigned as leader of Fine Gael. During his farewell address at the party’s ard fheis, it was reported that Mr Cosgrave paid a “striking tribute to the men who toiled beside him during the infancy of the State”. A news report added that “it would have been impossible during the last 20 years for any man to have contributed to the work of nation building had not the people given him as conscientious, unselfish and courageous a group of colleagues”.
The IFA called for a Government inquiry into the ethics of margarine advertising. IFA president Paddy Lane took issue with the radio programme on heart disease, which he said showed clearly that multinational Unilever, the manufacturer of Flora margarine, had embarked on a major advertising campaign.
“This campaign is based on the unproven and unsupported theory that polyunsaturated fats contained in such products as Flora margarine can cure or prevent some, if not all, heart problems,” he said.
The organisers of the Nobel Peace Prize, “in typically understated Nordic style”, frowned upon former taoiseach Albert Reynolds for trying to drum up support for his candidacy for the award. Mr Reynolds had written to other EU governments, with the exception of the British, asking for their backing, given his efforts to bring about a ceasefire in Northern Ireland.
A host of Fine Gael TDs hit out against the party doing a post-election deal with Independent TD Michael Lowry in order to form a Government. It came after then Taoiseach Enda Kenny failed to rule out such a pact. Kerry’s Brendan Griffin went as far as to say he would rather go back to the country in a second election than do a deal with the controversial Tipperary politician.
The 1932 election saw Cumann na nGaedheal lose power for the first time since the foundation of the State, with Fianna Fáil under Éamon de Valera becoming the dominant party.
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