Paul Hosford: Coalition rebounds in polls but a long way to go to catch Sinn Féin

Sinn Féin will not be hitting the panic button at the coalition's improved ratings, with support for the party at 35%, even if it is down a percentage point

Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald effectively disappeared from media after the budget in the wake of a Shane Ross book about her. File picture: Eamonn Farrell/RollingNews.ie

A welcome reprieve for the coalition or the further establishment of a new status quo?

As with everything, the latest Irish Times/Ipsos opinion poll is a matter of perspective. With what Public Expenditure Minister Michael McGrath called "a long way" to go to the next scheduled election, rebounds for all three coalition parties in the month after the budget (Fine Gael up four points to 22%, Fianna Fáil up one to 21% and the Greens up one to 4%), will bolster confidence going into December's transition of the office of Taoiseach, with nearly half of voters showing a preference for the Government parties.

Add to that the rise in satisfaction for Micheál Martin (up 5% to 45%), Leo Varadkar (up 8% to 44%), Eamon Ryan (up 5% to 20%) and the Government generally (up 9% to 40%) and this poll will be, if not a rallying call to the troops, a decent showing.

It will serve as proof to the relative parties that the budget was a success, that the handling of the Ukrainian refugee crisis is working better than some believe, and that the cost-of-living package announced in late September is being felt in pockets across the country.

For Sinn Féin, nobody will be hitting the panic button because support is at 35% even if it is down a percentage point. 

For Mary Lou McDonald's party, the context of the month will be considered as much as the bare result. The party's leader effectively disappeared from media after the budget in the wake of a Shane Ross book about her, holding a media doorstep in Belfast earlier this week and appearing on British TV.

The maelstrom of Mr Ross's unaired interview with Claire Byrne brought into focus other uses of Ireland's defamation laws by members of Sinn Féin, with the coalition — and some commentators — only too happy to paint every one of those uses as either frivolous or an attempt to shut down debate.

In that context, the party effectively limiting its interactions with the media, Ms McDonald not being on TV or radio as much as she had been, and the Government launching billions at the various crises engulfing the country, being down just a point is no bad poll.

Likewise, for the Government, taking a number of key decisions around the budget, falling short of what some had called for in terms of welfare increases, and navigating a tricky issue on the concrete levy and coming out in plus territory will feel like a win.

They say in sport that the game cannot be won in the first half, but can be lost and Mr McGrath was up on that analogy on Thursday, saying  "we're about at the halfway point really at this Oireachtas term".

"There aren’t many matches that are won by half time."

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For his part, Micheál Martin has consistently warned against presuming the next election will be a "coronation" of Ms McDonald. As the latest poll shows, there is still many miles to go until a ballot is counted and who knows what the surprise issue will be when it does?

The reprieve for the Government will be welcome, but is not yet in automatic re-election territory and this arithmetic could be key to the coalition holding together until 2025.