Have we reached a tipping point — or is the tide beginning to turn on climate change?

Most climate experts maintain we have time left, although not very much, to bring about meaningful reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and that the halting of global warming is still within our grasp

Mon, 08 Aug, 2022 - 20:45

Dr Catherine Conlon

At a time of rising fuel costs, and broiling heatwaves in Europe and the US, the UN secretary-general, Antόnio Guterres, described the record profits of oil and gas companies as immoral and urged governments to introduce a windfall tax, using the money to help those most in need.

The ‘grotesque greed’ of the fossil fuel companies and their financial backers had led to the combined profits of the largest energy companies, in the first quarter of the year, hitting almost $100bn.

Meanwhile, the words of James Lovelock, the founder of climate change theory who died on July 27 at the age of 103, are coming back to haunt us.

James Lovelock, the founder of climate change theory, who died last month.

"Humans are too stupid to prevent climate change from radically impacting on our lives over the coming decades."

Lovelock developed the Gaia theory — that living organisms interact with their inorganic surroundings on Earth to form a synergistic and self-regulating community of organisms interacting with each other and their surroundings. Two years ago, he predicted the biosphere was in the last 1% of its life.

In modern times, gross domestic product (GDP) has become a measure of a country’s wellbeing. If the economy is growing, then things must be good. If it is shrinking, then not so much.

Using GDP to measure how well we are doing, is increasingly at odds with reality. A key flaw is that it treats nature as a cost-fee externality that challenges the whole ethos of the Gaia hypothesis of closely controlled negative feedback loops that keep conditions on the planet within boundaries that are favourable to life.

There is an acute sense that something is not right, but it is difficult to put a finger on it. Prior to the financial crisis of 2008, the global consensus was that the markets should be left alone to create wealth.

A key problem with growth is that it requires endless production and its close companion, endless consumption. To prevent growth stalling, we need to buy more and more things and more and more paid experiences. For economies to continue to ‘grow’ we need to have insatiable consumption.

In our heart of hearts, we know this consumption is mindless madness. We buy stuff we never knew we wanted and never use again.

Open any kitchen cupboard and unearth a range of gadgets — some of them still in their box or the circular exchange of unwanted expensive gifts at Christmas.

We know gadgets have parts that are irreplaceable when they do break down so that the only option is to discard them and buy a new one.

The lens of GDP is too narrow a lens to view the world.

So how can the lens on which we measure growth be expanded for a modern economy? A good economy allows people to be healthy and happy with life and avoids storing potential sources of long-term trouble such as environmental collapse or extreme inequality or poor health. How can this be measured within the context of economic progress?

The World Economic Forum acknowledges that GDP is no longer an accurate measure of growth. Post-pandemic recovery requires a more comprehensive definition of economic success.

Yet, despite long-standing efforts to redefine economic progress, reverting to conventional growth in GDP remains the reflex response of most governments, including Ireland.

A dashboard for a new economy is proposed that incorporates the dimensions of prosperity, planet, people, and institutions. This approach would formulate a balance between economic, environmental, health and social targets and consider them as inextricably linked.

It is envisaged that some of the targets included will be drivers of productivity and GDP growth, such as public health outcomes and educational attainment; while certain environmental targets may present trade-offs with increasing GDP or carry distributional consequences depending on how they are pursued.

The impact of cutting the national herd is a good example of a trade-off between economic prosperity and environmental sustainability.

The advantage of a dashboard approach is that it strikes a balance between being comprehensive and at the same time concise enough to serve as a mental model for thinking about recovery and future progress.

The World Economic Forum has attempted just that with its report, Dashboard for a New Economy Towards a New Compass for Post-Covid Recovery (October 2020) which outlines a framework towards a future path for doing business that is efficient as well as addressing the key principles of sustainability, equity, and health.

A windfall tax on fossil fuels, as suggested by Antόnio Guterres, would be a key step in balancing economic prosperity against equity and sustainability.

But is it too late? Have we reached the tipping point of runaway climate change or is their room for optimism — is the tide turning?

In Hothouse Earth, recently published as the UK sweltered in a broiling heatwave, Bill McGuire, emeritus professor of geophysical and climate hazards at University College London, says we are going to pay the price for our complacency in the form of storms, droughts, floods and heatwaves that will easily surpass current extremes.

Despite this, he still believes we can avoid climate breakdown if we act now.

"To have even the tiniest chance of keeping the global average temperature below 1.5C we need to see emissions down 45% by 2030. In theory, this might be possible but in the real world, barring some unforeseen miracle — it isn’t going to happen."

He adds:

The fact that the future looks dismal is not an excuse to do nothing, to imagine it’s all too late. On the contrary, it is a call to arms."

Most other climate experts maintain we have time left, although not very much, to bring about meaningful reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and that a rapid drive to net zero and the halting of global warming is still within our grasp.

Renowned climate scientist Jonathan Foley, executive director of Project Drawdown, says having worked on climate issues for decades he is actually more optimistic than ever that we will address climate change.

Investors are taking serious note and shifting capital in important ways. Political will and government leadership is beginning to change, and awareness is at an all-time high. He suggests "we just need to avoid doomism".

He points to falling emissions in dozens of countries — including the United States and the UK.

Compared to 10 or 20 years ago, there is a lot to be optimistic about on climate change. Much more action and actual changes in emissions."

He concludes on an optimistic note by saying:

"Let’s build on this and limit the damage as much as we can. Every tenth of a degree matters. Every ecosystem matters. Every moment matters. We can still make a huge difference — for the better."

What's your view on this issue?

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This is the most positive note I have heard on climate change.

"I honestly believe we can still hit well under 2C and probably will thanks to some very interesting, recent shifts in technology, markets, investments, business leadership, culture and politics.

"It’s not game over, it’s game on."