Can Europe weather the storm of looming gas shortages?

While Europeans debate whether they could manage without Russian gas, and at what cost, much less has been said about how to prepare for gas shortages if Russia takes it upon itself to close the taps

A Belarusian worker on duty at a gas compressor station of the Yamal-Europe pipeline near Nesvizh. Russia has suspended natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria. File picture: Sergei Grits/AP

What would a stop on Russian gas imports mean for European economies? The question sharply divides economists. Everyone agrees there would be negative consequences, but how bad? Predictions range from a mild recession to economic disaster and mass unemployment.

Yet for all the intellectual energy that has been expended estimating the magnitude of potential GDP contractions, much less has been said about how to prepare for gas shortages if Russia takes it upon itself to close the taps. It is analogous to forecasting the extent of damage a hurricane will cause instead of actually preparing for the storm.