Emma de Souza: The united Ireland question won't go away until we finally have an answer

British prime minister Tony Blair and Taoiseach Bertie Ahern at Castle Buildings, Belfast, signing the Good Friday Agreement in April 1998.  File Picture: Eamonn Farrell

“Talking about, creating and designing a new Ireland can no longer be seen as subversive”, according to the SDLP’s Claire Hanna during a BBC special on a united Ireland last week. 

The programme joins a growing list of primetime debates, policy documents, and pro-unity groups all engaging on a topic which  — even five years ago — would have seemed implausible. 

The question of whether or not we are on the path to a referendum on constitutional change has permeated across all facets of society, with terms such as “united Ireland”, “border poll”, and “reunification” becoming embedded into the vernacular on both sides of the border. 

To deny that tides have begun to shift is to deny reality.

There now exists a multitude of resources and projects across academia including the newly formed Civic Space from the Institute of Irish Studies at the University of Liverpool, the ‘deliberating Constitutional Futures’ report from Ulster University, and the working group on Irish unification referendums at University College London. 

There are pro-unity groups such as Ireland's Future and pro-union groups such as Uniting UK.

While much of the focus has been placed upon the absence of consistent majority support for a united Ireland in the polls, the fact that consistent polling also hasn’t illustrated majority support for remaining in the United Kingdom is equally telling. 

A recent Lucid Talk poll for The Observer marked support for the union at 49%, and support for Irish unity at 42%. 

However, it also indicated that two-thirds believe there should be a vote on Northern Ireland’s place in the United Kingdom.

This shifting interest in the constitutional conversation has had a weighty impact on political discourse across the island, exposing deeply entrenched views over partition and highlighting a deep generational gap between Ireland’s youth and older demographics on the future of this island.

Despite no official reunification campaign in place, 50 and 71% of 18- to 34-year-olds in the North and South respectively would vote in favour of a united Ireland today according to a Lucid Talk poll for BBC Spotlight in April. 

Shifting interest in the constitutional conversation has had a weighty impact on political discourse across the island.

This same poll highlighted a significant shift in the ‘Others’, also referred to as constitutional neutrals, as a result of the Brexit referendum, with 58% stating they used to support Northern Ireland remaining in the United Kingdom but that they would now support, or “possibly” support, a united Ireland. This group is widely considered to be the kingmakers in any unity vote.

Those opposed to the speed with which this shift is occurring have leaned into the narrative that Northern Ireland must first reconcile before even entertaining mere discussion of a border poll, however such an argument is more reminiscent of the region’s oppressive past than its progressive future, and deliberately ignores the reconciliation which has already taken place.

In the 23 years since the signing of the Good Friday Agreement, society in Northern Ireland has been drastically transformed, even in spite of persistent sectarian politics. 

This change is evidenced in the growing plurality of the region, with the growth in demand for integrated education, the propagation of cross-community projects, and the growing community of those who do not identify as unionist or nationalist.

Placing an onus on the people of Northern Ireland to do more to reconcile also ignores the role that people in the Republic have to play in order to build better relations with the North. 

There remains a gulf in understanding between North and South, with the perpetuation of outdated stereotypes and assumptions complicating relations. 

For it isn’t only Northern Ireland tasked with promoting reconciliation and understanding, but the island as a whole.

Fianna Fáil’s Jim O’Callaghan has said that “logic dictates that the future of the island is best served by us coming together and discussing our collective future in terms of a new country”. 

Earlier this year, the Dublin Bay South TD released a blueprint for a new Ireland which included a proposal for an all-island citizens’ assembly. 

Fine Gael’s Neale Richmond has also put forward his vision with a similar proposal, but both are unrealistic and insufficient, lacking concrete clarity as to when this assembly would be formed. 

The task of tackling the sheer volume of complex details to be covered when creating a new country with a new constitution cannot be achieved in 12 months via one assembly but would rather necessitate a number of separate citizens’ assemblies, meeting and debating a wide array of topics including identity, culture, and national symbols, all-island healthcare, and education. 

With a constitutional imperative to aspire for reunifying the island, and with the logical understanding and engagement which would expectedly grow from each assembly, the Government should not be so hesitant.

However unlikely it seems, the Government needs to be attuned to the fact that the power to call a border poll lies entirely in the hands of a British government which has already shown itself to be duplicitous and wholly indifferent — if not at times hostile — to Ireland. 

There is nothing in the Good Friday Agreement addressing a supposed timeline, nor the conditions for such a referendum, so assuming that a poll would be called with enough time for the Government to hold all-island citizens’ assemblies, and to formulate a thorough and detailed plan is short-sighted at best, and reckless at worst. 

As the old adage goes: ‘Fail to prepare, prepare to fail’.

Those elected in the next Stormont Assembly will be tasked with overseeing significant milestones in Northern Ireland’s history with both a vote on the Northern Ireland protocol and the possibility of preparing for a vote on Northern Ireland’s future. 

It is set to be a historic election, with predictions that Sinn Féin will emerge as the largest party and unionist representation will continue to decrease.

If these predictions become reality, and unionism’s vote share declines for the third election in a row, then it will become increasingly difficult for both Dublin and Westminster to ignore the trajectory. 

It will also invariably impact the positions of parties in the Republic who will be fearful of Sinn Féin’s sustained position in opinion polls.

Both jurisdictions are plagued by systemic policy failures and the long-term impact of partition.

What's your view on this issue?

You can tell us here

Northern Ireland would have much to gain from a united Ireland: A return to the EU, and representation increasing from 2.7% in Westminster to 20% in Dublin to name but two. 

Citizens in the Republic also have much to gain; potentially an NHS-style healthcare system, and the unlocking of the island’s economic potential. 

The possibilities and opportunities that such a vote would present for all the inhabitants of this island is increasingly more appealing to large sections of society. 

As such, the constitutional question won’t go away — not until we have an answer.