Changing nature of Covid-19 means next steps are never straightforward

The rising number of Covid patients in hospital is a significant cause for concern. File picture

As we edge ever closer to October 22, the day on which the majority of remaining restrictions are due to be lifted, Covid is once again threatening to throw a spanner in the works.

The 11.30pm curfew on hospitality businesses was due to be removed, nightclubs were scheduled to reopen, events were set to resume in a manner similar to pre-pandemic times, and the vaccine passport for indoor dining was to become a thing of the past.

But now, politicians and public health officials have cast doubt on the next phase of our return to normality.

Despite the high level of vaccination in the population, daily case counts have remained stubbornly high, having breached 2,000 several times in the past 10 days.

Health Minister Stephen Donnelly attributed the high case count to our proximity to the UK and the Delta variant hitting our shores earlier than mainland Europe.

Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr Ronan Glynn said the growth rate of the epidemic had “accelerated” in recent days, with indicators of the disease deteriorating nationally.

The coronavirus positivity rate has risen from 8% to 10% in the past week.

Nightclubs are due to reopen on October 22. 

While concerning, that alone is not the sole reason for caution. The rising number of Covid patients in hospital, on the other hand, is a significant cause of apprehension.

As of 8am on Thursday, 415 Covid-19 patients were hospitalised, of whom 70 were in ICU – the highest since March 8.

A predominant reason behind the surge in hospitalisations is the number of people who remain unvaccinated.

Some 300,000 people are eligible for vaccine but have not taken up the offer, while a further 70,000 have received just one dose.

This cohort makes up 10% of the eligible adult population but accounts for half of all Covid hospital admissions.

But it's not all unvaccinated patients. Professor Philip Nolan said Ireland was on a "knife edge", balanced on vaccine protection.

Dr Glynn added: "When incidence of disease is high, we will see breakthrough infections in vaccinated people – most people’s experience of infection will be mild, but some will end up in hospital and intensive care. We want to avoid that."

Waning vaccine immunity

Their words of warning raises the question of waning vaccine immunity and the potential of booster shots.

A campaign is already under way to give booster jabs to those most vulnerable, though the go-ahead has not yet been given for the wider population, due to ethical considerations around access to vaccines for people in other countries.

What's important to remember, however, is that this is coming at a time when the health service is already beginning to experience the typical winter pressures, with more than 400 people waiting on trollies on Thursday morning.

Thankfully, the reintroduction of previous restrictions is not being discussed by Government. Despite this, the next steps are unlikely to be as straightforward as we had hoped.

It seems quite likely now that the plan to lift the remaining restrictions will require modification of some form to prevent widespread disruption to our health service during an already challenging time of the year.