Daniel McConnell: Did Fine Gael lose its identity chasing 'woke millennials'?
The party’s identity has become confused, with some insiders blaming the unsuccessful chasing of so-called “woke millennials” at the expense of the Fine Gael traditional base. File photo: Leon Farrell/Photocall Ireland
The fall-out of the Dublin Bay South by-election has been dominated by the infighting within Fianna Fáil, but the result has far-reaching ramifications for Fine Gael and its leader Leo Varadkar.
While James Geoghegan’s 26% share of the vote was not in the car crash category, the failure of Fine Gael to hold the seat vacated by Mr Varadkar’s former campaign manager and close ally Eoghan Murphy has been the source of some internal angst within the party.
All has not been well in Fine Gael for a considerable time, with several TDs saying the party has been largely “rudderless” under Varadkar’s leadership.
The party’s identity has become confused, with some insiders blaming the unsuccessful chasing of so-called “woke millennials” at the expense of the Fine Gael traditional base.
Having now lost their fifth by-election under the current leader and with the party looking at heading into opposition after the next election, there is also increased doubt about a number of their top stars and veteran TDs as to whether they will stand again.
Problems linked to Fine Gael's poor 2020 General Election have yet to be addressed fully by the party and promises made by Varadkar that the party would renew and reinvigorate in government simply have not been delivered.
It is curious that the more one digs into the Fine Gael problems, the more troublesome the picture looks.
From a high of 76 seats in 2011, the party lost 26 seats five years later and rather than gaining some of those seats back as promised in 2020, they went on to lose another 15 seats.
The departure of Murphy and the failure of Geoghegan to hold the seat means Fine Gael is down to just 34 seats.
As is the case now, the party headed into the 2020 election facing the problem that more than a dozen of their TDs, including Enda Kenny and Michael Noonan, were standing down and many of their replacements failed to hold their seats.
Varadkar and his deputy leader Simon Coveney have sat at Cabinet since 2011 and, by any standard, that is a considerable period of time.
Others such as Heather Humphreys and Paschal Donohoe are in Cabinet since 2014 and both too now have high mileage on their clocks.
Varadkar is due to be Taoiseach again in 2022 and has cause to be more optimistic about his immediate future as the promise of taking over the top office in the land is one very few get to taste.
However, the medium to longer-term prospects for him and the party are not so positive.
Despite losing the 2016 and 2020 elections, remarkably Fine Gael still finds itself in power and it is unfathomable that it could be considering a fourth consecutive term in office.
There is a view that should the party head out of power in 2024 or 2025, the likes of Varadkar, Coveney and Donohoe will take the opportunity at that point to bow out.
Insisting his position as Fine Gael leader is safe, Varadkar last week stressed he will be “around for a good while yet”.
However, even some of his most loyal TDs worry what his appetite will be for a lengthy stint in opposition having tasted power so young.
For months, many in Fine Gael have formed a view that Donohoe is heading for Europe given his elevation to the Presidency of the Eurogroup of EU Finance Ministers and are convinced he will not run again.
For the first time, Donohoe has moved to end speculation with his spokeswoman telling the Irish Examiner he will “absolutely” be standing at the next election. But in truth, much can happen between now and 2025.
Aside from the Cabinet, the party will see a number of its veteran TDs retire or decide not to run again, with some internal party estimates of between 12 and 15 people bowing out.
Some Fine Gael members have estimated the pre-election exodus could be as high as between 40%-50% of current TDs.
For example, come the next election, Louth TD Fergus O'Dowd and Kildare North TD Bernard Durkan will be in their mid- and late-70s, respectively, by the time the next election comes around.
Former ministers such as Richard Bruton, Michael Creed, David Stanton, Michael Ring and Charlie Flanagan are insisting, for now, they are not for stepping down but others in the party feel they are likely to go.
Even though he is not yet 50, former chief whip Paul Kehoe will have served more than 20 years if this Dáil lasts the full term and would be on the old gold-plated scheme in terms of pensions.
Every election sees a level of churn of older generations stepping down and younger generations take their place, but for a party in crisis, such as Fine Gael, experience will tell you there is a considerable risk in terms of losing seats.
Already Gone
The former Housing Minister shocked the political system back in April when he resigned his Dublin Bay South seat after 10 years in the Dáil.
Having cut a disenchanted figure since leaving Cabinet, Murphy’s departure was a blow to the Varadkar empire, having been his campaign manager and loyal confidant previously.
The former junior finance minister had spent three years being responsible for reforming the insurance sector, only to hang up his boots to take up a lobbying position in the industry.
Another former junior Fine Gael finance minister from the Varadkar camp has eschewed politics in favour of the private sector. He is now the head of a banking industry’s lobby group
The veteran 76-year-old Kildare TD has been a member of Dáil Eireann since 1981, barring a short absence in 1982. A former junior minister in the Rainbow Government between 1994 and 1997, he has held other minor offices since then.
Durkan, a native of Mayo, has held a rock-solid seat for the party in Kildare North and while his may be one the more bankable ones to be retained, there are no guarantees.
The 72-year-old former junior minister is a well-respected member of the party and someone who has defended the party’s position in the tough constituency of Louth.
There is a widespread belief that O’Dowd will not seek re-election should the government run its full term until 2024 or 2025.
The bombastic 68-year-old Mayo minister has been an entertaining addition to the Dáil since 1994 when he took the seat vacated by Padraig Flynn in a by-election.
Through thick and thin, Ring has held his seat in the highly competitive political arena.
The former auctioneer and estate agent has held a number of ministerial positions, making it to the Cabinet table in 2016 as the Minister for Rural and Community Development.
Now marginalised to the backbenches by Leo Varadkar, his future at senior Cabinet-level is over.
The former agriculture minister and current Cork North-West TD might be insisting he is not thinking about retiring but many of his colleagues are not so sure.
His geographical position made him a certainty for Cabinet in 2016 but the new coalition with Fianna Fáil and the Greens saw him lose out. While he has been a cogent voice on the Covid-19 pandemic in the Dáil, one wonders if the fire remains enough to see him stand again.
The former junior justice minister is one of the Dáil’s quiet and understated characters. The former teacher and guidance counsellor has been in the Dáil uninterrupted since 1997.
The 64-year-old Midleton native is one who lost out in 2020 when the major squeeze on ministerial positions occurred following the change of government and his future remains uncertain.
The 68-year-old party chairman, serial minister and Dublin Bay North TD has done it all in Irish politics, bar be the leader and that simply isn’t going to happen.
The party’s ‘Mr Reliable and Dependable’ has sought to redefine himself with his cooking videos and his flat abs since leaving ministerial office.
Entitled to the maximum TD and ministerial pension, he doesn’t need the cash and the lure of an easier life may simply become too tempting, some have suggested.
After months of whispers and speculation that he is heading off, the Dublin Central TD and Finance Minister has moved to clarify his position.
Responding to queries from the Irish Examiner, a spokeswoman said he “absolutely” will be running in the next general election.
There is a belief in Fine Gael that he will not stand in the General Election and that some nice sinecure in Europe or high finance awaits. One to watch.
Despite only being 49 years old, the Cork South Central TD has been in the Dáil for a very long time, having held that seat since he won the by-election to fill the seat following the death of his father Hugh.
His reduced status in government since the coalition formed a year ago has not rested comfortably on his shoulders, some say, leading to speculation his time in politics may be coming to an end.
Another of the Fine Gael brigade who has enjoyed a lengthy stint in high office and is not yet 50 years of age.
The Wexford TD, former chief whip and Defence Minister got nine years sitting at the Cabinet table under Enda Kenny and Leo Varadkar, having safely changed his allegiances during the 2017 transition of power.
Now firmly consigned to the backbenches, an understated TD and rare media performer, there are suggestions Kehoe may fancy a second career elsewhere.
However, the departure of D’Arcy may see pressure come on Kehoe to remain as the standard-bearer in Wexford. Again, one to watch.
The long-standing Laois TD and former Justice Minister has recently insisted he is not going anywhere, but there are many in his party who suspect he is for the door at the next election.
He has held all the major offices he possibly could and is unlikely to return to Cabinet in the foreseeable future.
Again, the lure of the TD and ministerial pension could become too much to resist.
On one level, the very notion of questioning Leo Varadkar’s future in politics would seem absurd. Already a former Taoiseach, a minister of 10 years’ standing, and is set to return to the top office in December 2022, Varadkar has reached and succeeded at the top echelons of Irish politics.
However, while the immediate picture appears rosy enough, the medium to long term is far less certain.
It was he himself who suggested he is not set on a life in politics and didn’t see himself still in office by the time he reaches the age of 51. While he has walked back from that statement since he said it in 2016, many in his own party question his appetite for the long haul.
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