Dublin Bay South by-election will be a bellwether for Government's fortunes 

The leaders of the two largest Coalition parties could come under some serious pressure after the Dublin Bay South by-election, writes Political Editor Daniel McConnell

Both the Taoiseach and the Tánaiste could be facing very stiff questions from their already annoyed parties as to what went wrong. Picture: Sasko Lazarov / RollingNews.ie

Tomorrow’s Dublin Bay South by-election to fill the seat vacated by former Housing Minister Eoghan Murphy is a bellwether moment for this Government.

It is the first post-General Election test for all of the parties and as with all by-elections, it is an occasion where the public passes its judgement on the performance of those holding office.

Viewed as Fine Gael’s seat to lose, given the party’s longstanding presence in the constituency, the party has certainly not made life easy for itself in seeking to hold on to it.

The first hurdle to overcome was the decision to not select former TD and pharmacist Kate O’Connell to be the party’s standard-bearer.

O’Connell, a staunch liberal firebrand to many was the ideal candidate for a by-election but she had alienated herself from Leo Varadkar and the party leadership and decided not to contest the convention.

Her radio interview on RTÉ’s Claire Byrne show, where she let rip, was seen as her “inflicting maximum damage on her way out the door”.

As a result, Fine Gael’s candidate, sitting city councillor and barrister James Geoghegan was the first into the field and certainly got a rigorous going over by the media for his posh background, the fact he doesn’t live in the constituency and his links with the conservative party Renua.

Fine Gael Councillor and Dublin Bay South by-election candidate, James Geoghegan, Chair of the Fine Gael Parliamentary Party, Richard Bruton, TD, and Fine Gael Councillor Anne Feeney take part in a media doorstep at the Sandymount Martello tower in Dublin.

Having weathered those storms without suffering any fatal blows, Geoghegan is certainly in contention for the seat, but it is far from a sure thing.

As the son of two Supreme Court judges, Geoghegan has sought to be a voice for the “locked out” generation but it is fair to say his pitch has rung somewhat hollow to many.

Questions have been asked by the party’s decision in the early stages of the campaign to make it a choice between Fine Gael and Sinn Féin when it was clear that Labour’s Ivana Bacik was more likely to challenge.

Last week’s Irish Times poll which showed Bacik within five points of Geoghegan certainly threw the cat among the pigeons and has led to what some have called as a sense of panic within the Fine Gael camp.

The poll has seen the party pivot from a position of Fine Gael versus Sinn Féin to one of Government versus Opposition, to seek to halt the march of Bacik.

Geoghegan has run a strong ground campaign with large canvassing groups out most evenings and at weekends with a steady coterie of senior cabinet ministers like Paschal Donohoe and Simon Coveney leading the charge.

Labour by-election candidate Sen. Ivana Bacik during a press briefing at the gates of Leinster house , Dublin. Picture: Gareth Chaney/Collins

The sending of a personal hand-written note from Varadkar to residents upped the ante and did certainly signal a sense of concern that the seat may be slipping away from them.

Some within Fine Gael have sought to manage expectations by reminding people that the party has been in government for 10 years and that sitting administrations rarely win by-elections.

But they have accepted that this is a major test of Varadkar’s leadership and if Geoghegan does not win, it will inevitably lead to questions as to his authority over his party which is far shakier now than at any stage since becoming leader in 2017.

“It is a no-win situation for us,” said one minister.

“If we win, people will shrug their shoulders and say we were expected to, but if we lose it heaps further pressure on Leo”.

Personal brand 

Last week’s Irish Times poll which put Bacik on 22% confirmed what was coming up anecdotally on the doors.

Defying her own party’s extremely low poll rating, Bacik’s own personal brand has far eclipsed that of the Labour Party.

She is proving popular and is seen as highly transfer-friendly and there is a genuine belief that she can win the seat, if she can get close enough to Geoghegan on the first count.

However, one poll and wishful thinking among some in the media are not enough to credibly think Bacik is assured of victory.

Her campaign, being run by Fingal TD Duncan Smith, has sought to learn the lessons of his own 2019 by-election campaign.

The party is seeking to hammer home the need for 2nd and 3rd preference votes where they can get them, in addition to targeting areas in the final days where they feel they can pick up votes.

The party feels it has the “Big Mo” behind their candidate.

Dublin Bay South candidate for Sinn Féin Lynn Boylan & Prionsisas O Rahilly grandson of Michael Joseph O'Rahilly (The O'Rahilly) at 40 Herbert Park, Dublin. Picture: Gareth Chaney/Collins

For Sinn Féin’s Lynn Boylan, that poll was a disappointment which showed she is not in contention for the seat.

However, what is coming up from several quarters is a sense that they will do far better than the poll suggested and their incredible performance in the Dublin Mid-West by-election in 2019 has left the other parties spooked.

“Aside from any ABU database, Sinn Féin have managed to target voters and areas in a away no one else has. They showed a knack of dragging out their vote in the 2019 election in areas no one else got to,” said one government figure.

Another candidate who has impressed, somewhat under the radar is Green Party candidate, councillor Claire Byrne.

Claire Byrne rounds up her campaign as the Green Party candidate in the Dublin Bay South byelection with a media conference outside Dublin Castle. Picture: Damien Storan.

Like Geoghegan, she faced and won an internal battle from Hazel Chu to contest the seat, but yet some people have been left wondering what would have happened had the former Lord Mayor of Dublin been on the ticket.

However, Byrne is proving herself to be a serious candidate. A close ally of party leader Eamon Ryan, Byrne has marshalled her campaign well and while she may not be in contention at the end, she will certainly do better than the Irish Times poll predicted.

The same cannot be said for Fianna Fáil’s Deirdre Conroy who risks coming in fifth or sixth position, which would be a disaster for Taoiseach Micheál Martin and director of elections Jim O’Callaghan.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin meets Cllr Deirdre Conroy, the Fianna Fáil by-election candidate for Dublin Bay South. Picture: Conor McCabe Photography

Conroy has simply had a disastrous campaign typified by a succession of car crash media performances including this one this week where she sought to use the cover of a recession to make questionable comments about her foreign tenants in an online blog. 

She has sought to insist the blog was light-hearted and humorous, but nobody is buying it. It is clear that Fianna Fáil struggled to get a candidate to stand and the party has serious questions to ask itself about its presence in Dublin.

The race is now a three-way contest and will come down to the following:

• If Geoghegan is more than seven points clear of either Bacik or Boylan on the first count, he will most likely win. He is not proving to be transfer toxic as many predicted.
• If Bacik is within five points of Geoghegan and can stay ahead of Boylan, then she has an almighty chance to pull off a sensational if improbable win.
• If Bacik does do it, both the Taoiseach and the Tánaiste will be facing very stiff questions from their already annoyed parties as to what went wrong.