Varadkar already wooing possible future coalition partners

The Taoiseach has met separately with Green leader Eamon Ryan and Labour leader Brendan Howlin. Both know the risks for minority parties in government, writes Political Correspondent Juno McEnroe.

Coalition politics is a dirty game. You enter a pact with a potential foe and, once comfortable in power, forget your principles. And nearly all small parties in alliances with big parties are punished by voters when it is all over.

Confirmation in today’s Irish Examiner that Taoiseach Leo Varadkar is now actively looking for a dance partner (or partners) for after the next general election will send party backroom strategists into a tizzy.

The mid-term local elections have just ended, activists are jaded, and Brexit has mired Irish politics in a stasis. But Varadkar’s one-to-one meetings with the leaders of Labour and the Greens, potential kingmakers in the next Dáil, will hasten Fianna Fáil’s efforts to woo allies, as the clock counts down to an inevitable snap general election.

Senior sources in Leinster House have confirmed the two meetings took place and have revealed details about the face-to-face talks between the party leaders.

Eamon Ryan, still rejoicing after a quadrupling of the Greens’ councillor numbers in the local elections, was the first to get the call, four weeks ago.

He met Varadkar in government buildings. While the meeting was described as the two “shooting the breeze”, it was also used by the Taoiseach to discuss the aftermath of the local elections and to inquire about the coalitions being formed in councils.

The Greens had quickly formed pacts, at a local level, with Fianna Fail and Labour, in Dublin City, Dun Laoghaire, and Fingal, among other places, after the May vote.

Labour and Greens had also operated a voting pact ahead of the elections in Louth. It is thought this spooked Varadkar and Fine Gael and so he reached out to the smaller parties.

Brexit, climate change, the general political situation, the state of the nation, as well as upcoming by-elections were among the issues discussed by Ryan and Varadkar.

“The reality is, we are in a strong position. He [Varadar] certainly realises we’re in an influential position. Ryan said to him that they were not ruling Fine Gael out [in future],” said a Greens source familiar with the meeting.

Nonetheless, the Green Party leader, who hopes to get at least six TDs elected to the next Dáil, but has strong contenders in at least 12 constituencies, made no hard deal with Varadkar.

“There were no machinations behind the scenes [deal], It was agreed to keep in touch, in case something happens down the line,” added the informed Greens source.

Labour leader, Brendan Howlin, was next to get the Taoiseach’s call and had a private meeting with him in Leinster House.

Senior ranks in Labour have a tainted view of re-entering government, after their electoral meltdown since being in power with Fine Gael for the five years up until the last election, in 2016.

But Howlin and Varadkar, with opposing ideologies, were in Cabinet together in the last so-called austerity government. Labour stalwarts also quip that their leader may miss Government Buildings.

Labour sources familiar with the meeting explained:

“It was a ‘how do you see the world?’ conversation. We don’t know if he wanted to deliver a message. And there were no bottom lines. But it was definitely a general cosying up.”

Again, it was confirmed that Brexit, domestic politics, and government spending and the public sector — an important issue forLabour — were discussed.

One Labour source suggested the meeting seemed, in part, designed to ensure the Fine Gael-led government’s upcoming budget, in October, does not alienate or anger Labour on the opposition benches.

“He [Varadkar] knows we are very jaundiced about re-entering government and the meeting was also about, maybe, meeting Labour’s demands in future,” added the Labour source.

Confirmation that the Taoiseach discussed political needs, and possible future pacts with the two parties, is likely to stir indignation in the Independent Alliance, his current coalition partners.

Furthermore, Varadkar’s efforts to “cosy up” to Ryan and Howlin will force Fianna Fáil’s Micheál Martin to accelerate his party’s efforts to woo political suitors ahead of any snap election.

Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, with current opinion polls, are hovering somewhere around potentially winning between 50 and 60 seats in the next Dáil. A majority of 80 is needed and so both must win the support of a bloc of TDs in order to be Taoiseach.

Varadkar’s summer charm offensive has raised eyebrows among the two parties he targetted. In part, it is seen as an attempt to slow Martin’s post-local election coalition deals at council level.

But Fine Gael are also running for a third consecutive term, some of their ideas are spent, activists are weary, and the energy for a new rainbow coalition seems to be with Fianna Fail, the Greens, and Labour.

Varadkar will need to cosy up more to the smaller parties, as Brexit drags his troubled minority government into another winter and before any possibility of a snap general election.