Brexit bewilderment along the Irish border

Although unthinkable, a no-deal Brexit could see Northern Ireland become a remote region of the UK with which it would be difficult to do business, writes Diarmuid Pepper.

Sitting right along the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is Newry. In the midst of the chaotic Brexit negotiations, it has symbolised the problem of ‘the Irish border’.

A decade ago, Newry was lauded as a “shoppers’ paradise” by the New York Times. It received this accolade because of its unique geographical position; sitting directly between Dublin and Belfast, it’s perfectly poised to avail of custom from both sides of the border.

Because of the value of the euro against the pound, shoppers from the Republic flock to Newry in their droves, often making six-hour round journeys to avail of the deals on offer.

This led to Newry being hailed by the New York Times as “the hottest shopping spot within the European Union’s open borders”. But these open borders are at risk of closure due to Brexit.

Brexit threatens Newry in an acute way, since it will be in the middle of the only land border between Britain and the EU. If this land border becomes a hard border, it will hit the local economy hard.

Sinn Féin’s Mickey Brady is the MP for Newry and Armagh. In his view, “the British government is in turmoil. For something so important, they have almost day to day changes and there seems to have been no preparation. In terms of the border, it was never factored in as an issue and has come back to bite them”.

Sinn Féin famously doesn’t take their seats at Westminster, but Mr Brady is strident on this point: “We have been pilloried for not taking our seats at Westminster.

You only have to look at the British parliament to see the shambles it’s in; why would anybody want to take their seat?

We’re elected on an abstentionist mandate. My majority went up between 2015 and 2017. We make very clear that, if elected, we will not be taking our seats. We have offices there, we lobby, we talk to people who have influence. But the reality I have learned from going to Westminster is that they have absolutely no interest in this place, absolutely none.”

Mr Brady also questions how a hard border could be implemented: “How do they enforce it? There are around 200 crossings from Donegal to Killean. When there was a hard border, there were around 12 official crossings.

"The British Army couldn’t control it when there were thousands of them here, so how is it going to work? They try to talk about technological solutions; maybe in the future, but they are certainly not available at this point in time.”

.@MickeyBradySF calls on the Irish government and EU to stand firm to protect the interests of the people of Ireland, the Good Friday Agreement and prevent a hard border pic.twitter.com/cBgk7KlsSg

— Sinn Féin (@sinnfeinireland) January 15, 2019

Peter Murray is the centre manager of Newry’s Buttercrane Shopping Centre. He shares these worries over a hard border. He says that “many retailers have concerns as large quantities of their produce comes to Northern Ireland via the Republic of Ireland, and these traders are facing stock holding challenges”.

A deal which includes a backstop has been negotiated by Theresa May, but is roundly rejected by the DUP, with whom her party has a “confidence and supply deal”. The backstop is meant to act as a safety net which ensures that there would be no hard border on the island of Ireland. But with the backstop being fiercely opposed by some, a hard border is looking more and more likely.

This resistance to Mrs May’s deal is a source of frustration for Sinn Féin’s Megan Fearon, who is an MLA for Newry and Armagh.

When asked for her opinion on why the DUP is so against the backstop, she points to the murky nature of donations made to the DUP during the Brexit referendum: “Questions remain over their dealings with the Constitutional Research Council and the donation of £425,000 in Dark Money.”

For many, it appears that Northern Ireland faces the choice between being a privileged part of Britain which enjoys frictionless trade with the EU (which the backstop would arguably allow for) or becoming a remote region of the UK that is difficult to do business with.

The latter is unthinkable, especially for a city like Newry.

However, with many British newspapers and politicians pushing for a no-deal Brexit, it seems more and more likely.

Ms Fearon insists that “the recklessness of the British government has made the prospect of a no-deal crash out more likely. Leaving the EU with no terms of departure would drive our economy over a cliff edge and would be disastrous”.

Her party, like most political parties in Northern Ireland, are against Brexit but feel that Mrs May’s deal is the best that can be hoped for. She said that “Sinn Féin and the other pro-Remain parties have all agreed that there is no such thing as a good Brexit — it is wholly unwanted here. The backstop as contained in the withdrawal agreement is the bottom line, that’s the reality. It’s far from perfect but it is the least worst option and the alternative is a catastrophic crash out.”

The DUP positions itself as the party of business, but the business community has turned its back against the party.

Mr Murray, the Buttercrane’s centre manager, says that he “supports the backstop which will ensure there is no hard border scenario” and says that “as a retail destination, all we can do is to continue to lobby Dublin, London, and Brussels in this regard”.

It is crystal clear the DUP live in a fairytale world, thinking there is a deal without a backstop. They are happy to sacrifice the interests of business and people in the north to deliver their hard Brexit - as usual the DUP are losing the run of themselves

— Michelle O’Neill (@moneillsf) January 16, 2019

Mr Brady added: “A lot of businesses realise now that the DUP don’t represent them. The farming community have come out very strongly against the DUP Brexit vision. The DUP has talked a lot about the backstop, but they haven’t given any alternatives.”

Mr Brady further feels that during the EU referendum, the DUP “canvassed not on socio-economic issues, but on the fact that it would strengthen partition and harden the border”. He further says that the DUP “doesn’t care what type of Brexit they have, as long as they are out of Europe”.

All of this chaos makes the prospect of a united Ireland enticing, even for some unionists.

Ms Fearon notes that “a new and agreed united Ireland has always been our principal aim”.

However, she says:

The European Union has helped mitigate the worst excesses of partition. Brexit has opened more people to the idea of a united Ireland as it has exposed the sheer folly of partition. Even the most unlikely sources are open to at least discussing what a united Ireland would look like.

Mrs May has asked parliament to consider what “a no-deal Brexit (would) do to strengthen the hand of those demanding a border poll in Northern Ireland”.

To that end, Ms Fearon insists that “if Westminster drives toward a no-deal crash, then a referendum on Irish reunification, as provided for in the Good Friday Agreement, must be called as the only sensible, logical, and entirely rational response to provide a pathway for the North to be readmitted to the European Union”.

Mr Brady takes a similar tone:

"It is entirely up to the secretary of state, but it is almost as if they have done something terrible in a previous life to be sent over here.

"They have to make an almost arbitrary decision on whether there has been a change which would merit a border poll; if Brexit doesn’t trigger that change, I’m not sure what possibly could.”