Clean break for UK, but how will it all work out?

British prime minister Theresa May yesterday delivered her most substantive speech on the UK’s Brexit strategy since she took power six months ago, writes Shaun Connolly
Clean break for UK, but how will it all work out?

What did she announce?

Mrs May clarified her government’s stance on Brexit, saying the UK will leave the single market, and that she was prepared to quit the EU without a deal rather than accept a “bad” one.

She again stated that Britain would take back control of immigration and no longer be under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice after leaving the EU.

And she gave her strongest hint yet that the UK could leave the European customs union (CU), stating that she wanted to ensure “frictionless” cross-border trade but had an “open mind” on whether that should be done through associate membership of the CU or a completely new customs agreement.

She said both Houses of Parliament would have a vote on any final deal done with Brussels.

What are the 12 objectives?

1. Certainty wherever possible.

The fluctuation in the value of the pound whenever a minister opens their mouth about Brexit illustrates the impact uncertainty has on the economy.

Mrs May said she wanted to give “business, the public sector, and everybody” as much certainty as possible — for example by converting all EU laws into British ones.

But she also introduced the potential for fresh uncertainty by promising that both Houses of Parliament will be given a vote on the final deal.

2. Control of Britain’s laws.

If Brexit was about “taking back control”, then Mrs May stressed that that must mean leaving the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.

Laws made in the UK will be “interpreted by judges not in Luxembourg but in courts across this country”, she said.

3. Strengthening the United Kingdom.

Mrs May insisted that her government was making sure the devolved administrations were “fully engaged” in the Brexit process, hinting that some of the powers returned from Brussels could be passed to Holyrood, Cardiff Bay, and Stormont.

4. Maintaining the common travel area with Ireland.

This will be an “important priority” for the UK, Mrs May said, adding that “nobody wants to return to the borders of the past”.

But she acknowledged that a “practical solution” would have to be found that would protect the “integrity” of the UK’s immigration system because, as an EU member, the Republic of Ireland will retain freedom of movement with the other nations in the bloc.

5. Control of immigration.

By ending freedom of movement, there will be “control of the number of people coming to Britain from the EU”.

But Britian will attract the “brightest and best” to work and study in the UK, Mrs May said.

6. Rights for EU nationals in Britain and British nationals in the EU.

Ms May has told fellow leaders she wants an early agreement on this.

But she acknowledged that “one or two” of her counterparts do not.

7. Enhancing rights for workers.

Workers’ rights will be “fully protected and maintained” after Brexit, as the EU’s laws are translated into domestic legislation, Mrs May insisted.

8. Free trade with European markets.

The UK will quit the single market and seek a “new, comprehensive, bold and ambitious” free trade deal instead.

This would aim to ensure the “greatest possible access” to the single market on a reciprocal basis.

9. New trade agreements with other countries.

Mrs May acknowledged that “full” customs union membership prevents the UK from striking comprehensive trade deals with other countries — such as the potential UK-US deal suggested by Donald Trump.

Instead, Mrs May wants to retain tariff-free trade with the EU, potentially as an “associate member” of the customs union or under a new agreement.

10. Lead role in science and innovation.

The UK will seek to continue co-operation with European partners on science, research and technology initiatives.

Mrs May said the UK would “remain at the forefront of collective endeavours” in areas “from space exploration to clean energy to medical technologies”.

11. Co-operation on crime, terrorism and foreign affairs.

Under Mrs May’s plan, the relationship with Europe will include “practical arrangements” on law enforcement and security, including the sharing of intelligence with EU allies.

The UK’s intelligence expertise is viewed as a valuable card in Mrs May’s hand during talks.

12. A phased approach, delivering a smooth and orderly Brexit.

Although the divorce deal following the triggering of Article 50 will need to be completed within two years, the future trading relationship may require longer to establish.

Mrs May suggested there could be a “phased process of implementation” to give businesses time to plan and prepare, avoiding a “disruptive cliff-edge” change in the relationship.

What would happen if the British parliament rejected a deal?

Mrs May left it unclear whether such a vote would mean the UK staying in the EU or leaving without a trade agreement in place.

What tone did Mrs May strike?

Friendly, but threatening. She stressed that the UK wanted to remain on close terms with the EU after Brexit, but warned of the consequences if the EU tried to “punish” Britain as an example to other countries.

“I know there are some voices calling for a punitive deal that punishes Britain and discourages other countries from taking the same path,” she said. “That would be an act of calamitous self-harm for the countries of Europe.”

Mrs May said, as she implied the UK could retaliate by under-cutting EU tax rates to attract investment.

How did the money markets react?

They were glad some clarity had finally been brought to the UK’s position, and responded well with the pound soaring more than 2% to over $1.23s, after it had slumped below $1.20 in recent days.

Much of the surge appeared to come after Mrs May said MPs and peers will be given the final say on any Brexit deal. The UK currency was also up 1.5% against the euro at 1.152.

What was the reaction in Ireland?

The Government here welcomed Mrs May’s speech and said it was “very aware of the potential economic opportunities that may arise for Ireland” from the planned hard Brexit.

The reaction from the business community was much cooler. Ibec CEO Danny McCoy said Britain’s approach to negotiations risked damaging its relationship with Ireland.

“The possibility of the UK leaving both the single market and the customs union raises fundamental questions about Ireland’s future trading relations with the UK,” he said.

“A return to World Trade Organisation rules would be a significant economic shock to the economy and would hit Irish exporters hard. It would also set the UK and Ireland on very different economic trajectories.”

The Small Firms Association said Mrs May’s 12-point plan poses serious threats to Irish companies.

How did Europe take it?

Not very well. President of the European Council Donald Tusk tweeted: “Sad process, surrealistic times but at least more realistic announcement on #Brexit. EU27 united and ready to negotiate after Art. 50.”

One German MEP accused Mrs May of “bluntly making fun of her electorate”. Jan Philipp Albrecht, a Green MEP for northern Germany, tweeted: “#May: Go f*** yourself EU but please don’t let us down. *whine* *whine*”

Kathleen Van Brempt, a Belgian socialist, tweeted: “The European Union is not a menu where the #UK can freely pick and choose to their liking. #Brexit.”

Swedish Moderate MEP Christofer Fjellner wrote: “UK leaving the single market will come at a large cost. Negotiating new free trade deals with others to compensate won’t be any easy task!”

What happens next?

Britain’s Supreme Court is set to announce its ruling on whether Mrs May or the UK parliament has the final say on triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which formally starts the two year withdrawal negotiations with the EU.

Mrs May has stated she intends to invoke Article 50 by the end of March.

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